Broken down by pricing tiers, Mark Farris outlines his favorite PGA DFS plays on DraftKings

Eleven (11) games today, following the two early, and two turbo pairings.  A great balance on this full Tuesday post the CBB National Championship game.  While the Masters takes off this week and NBA/NHL playoffs begin, it’s truly MLB season now that we had a Julio Teheran appearance and today, that same team who used Julio is going to roll out Adrian Houser.  Shit… They won too! We continue to see pitchers dropping with elbow injuries and my “something doesn’t smell right” senses are going off.  Specifically today Nick Pivetta and Josiah Gray are going on the IL which means Gray himself is scratched tonight – so congrats to the Giants on the ass whooping they will give Joan Adon instead.  I’ll reserve my rant on these elbow injuries for now, but again, I’m not necessarily buying that what we are hearing is what is actually happening. WEATHER No PPD risks   TYLER GLASNOW (DK: $10.1k, FD: $10k) … Elite match-up as long as his arm does not fall off.  Hey-ooo.  Pay it and move on IMO. NATE EOVALDI (DK: $8800, FD: $9500) … This definitely feels like a pay up pitching slate and I suspect that someone like Nate Eovaldi for 8800 on DK is going to be a chalky play.  Yeah, he has a projected 40% strikeout rate here and a K prop of 7.5 with a SO prediction of 9.2.   Really hard to ignore those kind of numbers.  My model is something I use as a guide and a way to quickly analyze the slate.  Eovaldi being the 10th ranked SP is concerning to me, but I really don’t see any reason to avoid that strikeout upside.  If the Athletics go off, we chalk this one up to my brain with lots of coffee (when I do the coding) being smarter than my brain without lots of coffee (me doing this article right now). ZACK WHEELER (DK: $9600, FD: $10.6k) … A big park for Wheeler and a cold Cardinals lineup.  He won’t have the strikeouts Nate and Tyler will have, but he might go longer into the game (7 innings) and should win. KYLE HARRISON (DK: $7600, FD: $7900) … If dumpster diving for value tonight you will be thin in your selections.  This is more of a FanDuel play to go cheaper but I wouldn’t expect more than 5 2/3 IP from Harrison, which reduces […]

UPDATE – Framber Valdez scratched for Houston tonight.  26 year old “Rookie” RHP Blair Henley will take his spot.  Texas a big boost. WEATHER Dodgers at Twins – Rain concerns here could push this one back a day, but most likely the game starts on time and they get most of it in before any rain rolls through.  It’s also very chilly in Minny.   A nice big ‘atta-boy’ to the pricing on DraftKings tonight.  With a shorter slate and a Coors game featuring a good road team (Arizona) we are dealt two guys with five figure salaries and a good amount of decisions right after them. ZAC GALLEN (DK: $8200, FD: $9800) Sometimes the answer to “man I want that Coors stack” is actually taking a under-priced good pitcher in Coors.  Such is the case with Gallen, who has a sub 3 ERA in his career as a road starter in the rocky mountains, and should have a 25-30% strikeout rate tonight against a team who over the last week has been striking out in that range as well.  With Coors, the issue is generally around the 5th/6th inning but projecting Gallen to get 18 outs with 5 of them being strikeouts as a baseline is where I stand today.  Throw in a likely win and we’re cookin. JAVIER ASSAD (DK: $7400, FD: $7600) Speaking of pitchers carving up the Rockies bad lineup, that is what Assad was able to do in his first start on the year.  Going into PETCO is not a bad second start.  He doesn’t do much of anything great, but then neither do the Padres. JAMES PAXTON (DK: $8700, FD: $8600) I was going to put Darvish in here over Valdez, but Paxton is above both of them assuming the weather holds off.  Cold temps, Twins dead lineup and a chance this one is called after 7 with a 4-1 Dodgers win.   That other guy over there … BLAKE SNELL (DK: $10,300, FD: 10,500) … This is legit the worst case scenario here.  Snell’s first start is one we likely would want to avoid him in, but it’s at home and against the Nationals.  Everything is favorable for him and while there is a temptation to have expensive Arizona stacks (they’re in Coors) tonight, I would be lying if I said I don’t think Snell gets 16-17 points even on a limited PC […]

An odd setup here on Sunday where as of now DraftKings has not posted a normal afternoon slate, but instead made a 5 game Turbo slate that includes one of the MAIN slate games as well.  We have no Coors Field on the MAIN slate for either site and my friends, we have — Site Synchronicity! WEATHER CLE @ MIN:  This one could be a PPD risk given that it is a divisional game LAD @ CHC:  They can wait out the weather and get this game in.   MY GUYS TODAY JACK FLAHERTY (DK: 8900, FD: $9700) … Jack feels like the guy we look at today and cannot find too much to nitpick besides his prior history.  The recent history is looking better though, pitching for the Tigers and being able to feast upon a bad White Sox lineup in his first start & now the Athletics in his second doesnt hurt.  Expect another 30%+ CSW rate today which will put him in line for another 20+ DraftKings score.  The run support will be there as well. CHRISTOPHER SANCHEZ (DK: 7600, FD: $8300) … The Nationals, while having a couple okay bats, are still pathetic right now.  Abrams is questionable here, Ruiz is ice cold, Meneses is ice cold and they might still roll out Winker/Gallo in LvL match-ups, which isn’t ideal against Sanchez. THE SUNDAY SLEEPER None.  There’s no point today with any of the so called ‘sneaky’ guys, as ownership should be spread out and we’re not really needing to be fading much of anything anyways.  If you wanted someone who is going to out perform expectations it would be Marco Gonzales — but … why subject yourself to that? OTHER THOUGHTS Sean Manaea is what I would consider the primary ‘Fade’ guy who might grade well based on his first start.  Avoid in Cincinnati.  I do not mind MacKenzie Gore, Chris Sale, Kyle Gibson, Alec Marsh and even Shota Imanaga — but I cannot justify any of them above Flaherty and Sanchez, so why change lanes on the highway if we don’t need too as my father would say.  Sorry for being boring here, but the meal has been served, eat it.   With 11 games today we have some EXTREMELY high ratings on the model which was somewhat interesting to me and the more analysis I do on the pitching matchups here I think […]

This is just going to be quick analysis/picks for the MAIN slate tonight. WEATHER No issues seen.   Fade Fried & Gausman … Bryce Miller (DK: $9300, FD: $9400) Clarke Schmidt (DK: $7300, FD: $7500) Reid Detmers (DK: $8200, FD: $8600) Keaton Winn & Michael King Game Stack …   Braves (Olson, Riley, Acuna) Royals (Garcia, Witt, Pasquantino) Mariners (Polanco, Rodriguez, Garver) Rays (Lowe, Palacios, Ramirez)     CATCHER Mitch Garver Yainer Diaz Elias Diaz   FIRST BASE Vinnie Pasquantino Matt Olson Anthony Rizzo   SECOND BASE Brandon Lowe Jorge Polanco Marcus Semien   THIRD BASE Austin Riley Maikel Garcia Eugenio Suarez   SHORTSTOP Bobby Witt Jr.   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Ronald Acuna Jr. Mike Trout Hunter Renfroe Harold Ramirez   Mike Trout – OF – Angels – Mr. Saturday Night – Chairman of The Dongers Club Bobby Witt Jr. Mitch Garver   TOP BETS Yankees ML Padres/Giants UNDER 8  

Overview We have the second NASCAR night race in as many nights and this time it’s the XFINITY Series drivers taking to the short track of Martinsville. We got a little taste of a short track-type atmosphere last week when the cars hit Richmond Raceway but this track this week is a true short track, […]

We have two slates on DraftKings today, which of course turns into three slates on FanDuel for no good reason.  Honestly, I am shocked that DraftKings included the 1PM Athletics/Tigers game, but sure, why not. WEATHER No Rain issues, just chilly.   This is not a bad SP game-stack kind of afternoon slate. JOE RYAN (DK: $9200) … My gut says Joe Ryan pitches very well today.  My model says that Joe Ryan pitches very well today.  But my brain says that he won’t be able to get on a strikeout roll through the heart of the Guardians order.  So this is going to have to be a spot where he is going to give you 6+ innings and maybe get to that 5th strikeout without allowing more than 1 ER.  Fortunately, there aren’t a ton of dominant starters going today, so I think you can go here without fear and a gamestack with Carrasco is viable. YOSHINOBU YAMAMOTO (DK: $9600) … Wow, what a price tag on Yamamoto here considering how well the Cubs are hitting right now.  That aside, it’s a very chilly and wind in type of day in Wrigley.  One where the folks who are at the game should enjoy that they have a sportsbook attached the stadium to go in and put some unders on the action.  Especially with a fellow countryman pitching, if you know what I mean.   Much like it being a SP game stack slate, it’s also a hitting game stack slate.  The only positive hitting environment is tiny Cincinnati, so that’s our obvious chalky spot for offense today. Marlins vs Cardinals Game has good over potential.  The heart of both orders should be able to put the ball in play enough to make either side viable stacks, but heavy lean on the Cardinals for me. Orioles vs Pirates BAL: Henderson, Santander || PIT:  Cruzl, Reynolds, Suwinski The Orioles lefties absolutely went off in LiPNC on Friday, and should be in a good environment to do the same again against Bailey Falter, who even as a lefty himself is the worst SP against LHB on this slate. Mets vs Reds NYM: Lindor, Alvarez || CIN:  Elly, India, Benson Severino in his first Mets start gave up 12 hits to the Brewers at home.  Now he’s going into Cincinnati to face the Reds?  Trouble my friends and the fastball velocity still being good […]

Overview The Craftsman Truck Series had a bit of a layoff not having raced since COTA on March 23rd but this week they head to the shortest track on the schedule, Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeway, Virginia. Martinsville is a .526-mile asphalt concrete oval that has 12 degrees of banking in the turns. Commonly called the […]

Welcome to the first real good Friday MLB day of the year.  Although we do not have 15 games and only 7 on the main slate, it is still nice to see the schedule for today and know that for the next 5+ months we have a full set of Friday Baseball games. Running a little Friendly $10 contest on DraftKings Tonight:  Max 25 entries, below is the link. https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/160310439 WEATHER All clear.  Expect roof closed in Milwaukee and maybe open in Texas. It is not that warm in Atlanta, so do not over-react to “ATLANTA AT HOME ON A FRIDAY OMG!”… I’ll continue to avoid Strider this early in the season and it’s not about him as much as it is about paying 11k+ for my SP1 when there are a heavy amount of alternative options. My Guys Aaron Nola (DK: 9000, FD: $10.1k) … Hi there.  Yes, you.  Would you like 6 innings, 3 hits, 1 walk, 7 strikeouts?  Then, you, my friend, have come to the right place. Logan Gilbert (DK: 9600, FD: 9900) … This is the next best pitcher going tonight.  He doesn’t get the glory that other Mariners SP’s get because Gilbert doesn’t have off the charts data elements in any one area, but he just gets the job done.  He’s going to have the best career out of all their arms and is someone I trust even with a low strikeout projection tonight.  Yes, Freddy Peralta is going to likely out ownership him and maybe have 1-2 more strikeouts, but he’s also going to be OUT of the game much sooner and the Mariners win behind Gilbert and some timely hitting. Brady Singer (DK: 8700, FD: 9200) … The White Sox are trash, no other way to spin this one and you knew I would have to go back to the Singer well eventually.  This is also more about how well KC’s pitching finally with some good coaching and less about my love affair for Singer.  He should not burn us. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS I limited my SP write-ups to just the three above, because I have Peralta as a fade, Strider as too expensive with no cheap SP2 and the rest of these guys are just low upside, high risk spots. Names like Jose Quintana, Griffin Canning (reverse splits historically which favors him tonight), Hunter Greene (love the Mets, which … feels weird), […]

DraftKings only today as FD only has 3 games on it. WEATHER All clear Each of these guys are viable tonight.  Lopez/Bibee in chilly Minnesota should figure to be a low scoring game where both wind up accumulating enough outs to get you a respectable score.  Lugo though is drawing the White Sox, so he’s ranked #2 for me. Tanner Bibee (DK: $9200) Seth Lugo (DK: $8300) Pablo Lopez (DK: $9800)   Pirates (Cruz, Reynolds) Marlins (Jazz, Burger) Royals (Garcia, Pasquantino)   CATCHER Keibert Ruiz Henry Davis   FIRST BASE Vinnie Pasquantino Rowdy Tellez   SECOND BASE Luis Arraez Nolan Gorman   THIRD BASE Maikel Garcia Jake Burger   SHORTSTOP Oneil Cruz Bobby Witt Jr.   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Jazz Chisholm Jr. Bryan Reynolds Lane Thomas Andrew McCutchen   Oneil Cruz – SS – Pirates – Chairman of The Dongers Club   TODAYS BETS PIT/WSH over 9 CLE/MIN under 7.5 MIA/STL Yes runs first inning Royals -1.5