Welcome to the first real good Friday MLB day of the year. Although we do not have 15 games and only 7 on the main slate, it is still nice to see the schedule for today and know that for the next 5+ months we have a full set of Friday Baseball games.
Running a little Friendly $10 contest on DraftKings Tonight: Max 25 entries, below is the link.
https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/160310439
WEATHER
All clear. Expect roof closed in Milwaukee and maybe open in Texas.
It is not that warm in Atlanta, so do not over-react to “ATLANTA AT HOME ON A FRIDAY OMG!”…
I’ll continue to avoid Strider this early in the season and it’s not about him as much as it is about paying 11k+ for my SP1 when there are a heavy amount of alternative options.
My Guys
Aaron Nola (DK: 9000, FD: $10.1k) … Hi there. Yes, you. Would you like 6 innings, 3 hits, 1 walk, 7 strikeouts? Then, you, my friend, have come to the right place.
Logan Gilbert (DK: 9600, FD: 9900) … This is the next best pitcher going tonight. He doesn’t get the glory that other Mariners SP’s get because Gilbert doesn’t have off the charts data elements in any one area, but he just gets the job done. He’s going to have the best career out of all their arms and is someone I trust even with a low strikeout projection tonight. Yes, Freddy Peralta is going to likely out ownership him and maybe have 1-2 more strikeouts, but he’s also going to be OUT of the game much sooner and the Mariners win behind Gilbert and some timely hitting.
Brady Singer (DK: 8700, FD: 9200) … The White Sox are trash, no other way to spin this one and you knew I would have to go back to the Singer well eventually. This is also more about how well KC’s pitching finally with some good coaching and less about my love affair for Singer. He should not burn us.
OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS
I limited my SP write-ups to just the three above, because I have Peralta as a fade, Strider as too expensive with no cheap SP2 and the rest of these guys are just low upside, high risk spots.
Names like Jose Quintana, Griffin Canning (reverse splits historically which favors him tonight), Hunter Greene (love the Mets, which … feels weird), etc., etc…
It’s an avoid risky spots kinda night, so I wouldn’t get cute on pitching.
Short slate, but lots of hitting options.
Mets (Alonso, Lindor, Marte) … They can’t hit at all, they won’t hit at all at home, but they will hit well in a small park and that’s what we have in Cincinnati. Francisco Lindor is not going to have a good season and the test with him is when he plays in NL Central parks. I dunno if it’s the time zone or what, but if Lindor can’t do it this weekend, he might be opting into the IL for the rest of the year.
Royals (Garcia, Melendez, Witt) … Pasquantino hasn’t looked great so far this year, but anothet 6-12 AB and he will turn it on. If you want to buy early, he’s worth taking a shot on. Same is true for Hunter Renfroe, but right now the core here for DFS is Maikel Garcia, MJ Melendez and Nelson Velazquez. Witt at $6400 is almost in that Mookie/Freeman/Acuna type range, but it’s those other value guys who make this stack work.
Astros (Altuve, Alvarez, Abreu) … I don’t touch Bregman until May, but he would be the 4th Astro to build with. I put Houston above Philly and Atlanta tonight for your “pay up” teams.
Contrarian Stack
Seattle Mariners (Polanco, Haniger, J-Rod, Garver) … I love Seattle today. Miller Park doesn’t get the credit for being a big outfield with ideal “gap hitting” potential and Polanco, Haniger, Garver, Crawford all fit into that mold. IF Peralta is slightly off tonight, Seattle will post a 10 spot.
Use With Caution…
Phillies (Bohm, Realmuto, Castellanos) … Yeah, yeah, Patrick Corbin. Blah. The Phillies with all their former Nationals ties feel like that move the Dream Team coming back into town. Harper is obviously Michael Keaton, Schwarber is the fat guy Albert, Trea Turner is … Christopher Lloyd I guess? Okay, maybe a bad comp, but a great movie…. Anywho, I think the Phils are a team you limit to 2 guys from tonight — dont play Trea. He homers tomorrow.
CATCHER
- J.T. Realmuto
- Mitch Garver
- Omar Narvaez
FIRST BASE
- Pete Alonso
- Jose Abreu
- Vinnie Pasquantino
SECOND BASE
- Jorge Polanco
- Nick Loftin
- Jose Altuve
THIRD BASE
This is a yucky spot tonight. Gotta like Garcia until he cools off, but Baty is the tempting one if he get PA when men on base. Bohm is your top Phillies bat, but I don’t love the weather there tonight.
- Alec Bohm
- Brett Baty
- Maikel Garcia
SHORTSTOP
- Francisco Lindor
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Corey Seager
- JP Crawford
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Starling Marte
- Mitch Haniger
- Masataka Yoshida
- Yordan Alvarez
- Pete Alonso – 1B – NY Mets – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Francisco Lindor – SS – Mets
- Alec Bohm – 3B – Phillies
- JT Realmuto – C – Phillies
- Mitch Haniger – OF – Mariners
- Masataka Yoshida – OF – Red Sox
- Yordan Alvarez – OF – Astros
- Nobody – 2B
- BONUS ……………. Vinnie Pasquantino – 1B – Royals
TODAYS BETS
Aaron Nola OVER 5.5 strikeouts
Freddy Peralta UNDER 7.5 strikeouts
Mets ML +110
Diamondbacks ML +220
Mariners ML +102