UPDATE – Framber Valdez scratched for Houston tonight. 26 year old “Rookie” RHP Blair Henley will take his spot. Texas a big boost.
WEATHER
Dodgers at Twins – Rain concerns here could push this one back a day, but most likely the game starts on time and they get most of it in before any rain rolls through. It’s also very chilly in Minny.
A nice big ‘atta-boy’ to the pricing on DraftKings tonight. With a shorter slate and a Coors game featuring a good road team (Arizona) we are dealt two guys with five figure salaries and a good amount of decisions right after them.
ZAC GALLEN (DK: $8200, FD: $9800)
Sometimes the answer to “man I want that Coors stack” is actually taking a under-priced good pitcher in Coors. Such is the case with Gallen, who has a sub 3 ERA in his career as a road starter in the rocky mountains, and should have a 25-30% strikeout rate tonight against a team who over the last week has been striking out in that range as well. With Coors, the issue is generally around the 5th/6th inning but projecting Gallen to get 18 outs with 5 of them being strikeouts as a baseline is where I stand today. Throw in a likely win and we’re cookin.
JAVIER ASSAD (DK: $7400, FD: $7600)
Speaking of pitchers carving up the Rockies bad lineup, that is what Assad was able to do in his first start on the year. Going into PETCO is not a bad second start. He doesn’t do much of anything great, but then neither do the Padres.
JAMES PAXTON (DK: $8700, FD: $8600)
I was going to put Darvish in here over Valdez, but Paxton is above both of them assuming the weather holds off. Cold temps, Twins dead lineup and a chance this one is called after 7 with a 4-1 Dodgers win.
That other guy over there …
BLAKE SNELL (DK: $10,300, FD: 10,500) … This is legit the worst case scenario here. Snell’s first start is one we likely would want to avoid him in, but it’s at home and against the Nationals. Everything is favorable for him and while there is a temptation to have expensive Arizona stacks (they’re in Coors) tonight, I would be lying if I said I don’t think Snell gets 16-17 points even on a limited PC tonight.
Tonights Chalk
BRAVES … Can someone point me to the manager please? Who is the brain child that decided to let Julio Teheran not only sign with the METS but make his first start down in Atlanta? What? Julio has always had problems in the 1st or 5th innings. Everything builds up for him to get hit by the top of the order, and Ozzie Albies is the most logical player to go yard among the studs. Michael Harris is also very cheap at 4400 considering his spot batting 6th and RBI potential he could get.
DIAMONDBACKS … Even if Freeland throws 3 good innings this time (he gave up 10 ER back on Opening Day vs Arizona), the Rockies pen is going to give up enough production too. I’m a little less optimistic about Arizona going bananas than I am Atlanta though, this is the easier one to be underweight on.
Pivot Teams I Like
Rays (Diaz, Ramirez, Arozarena) … Angels starters have had some good games, but their bullpen is not very talented. Tyler Anderson is a low K% starter here too for Tampa to have a good ball in play game against.
Blue Jays/Mariners (Bichette / Polanco key players on both stacks) … Contrarian stack with Castillo and Berrios going. This is either 8-7 final or 1-0 game.
CATCHER
- Cal Raleigh … Same deal as yesterday, hopefully he is in with Garver though.
- Alejandro Kirk
- JT Realmuto … Not to be overlooked, the weather in St. Louis is getting better for offense – but still a huge park so don’t bite too much into the Phillies apple
- Gabriel Moreno
FIRST BASE
- Yandy Diaz
- Christian Walker
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
SECOND BASE
- Ozzie Albies
- Brandon Lowe
- Jorge Polanco
THIRD BASE
- Matt Chapman … Should smash one off Trevor Williams.
- Austin Riley
- Eugenio Suarez
SHORTSTOP
- Beaux Bichette
- Mookie Betts
- Blaze Alexander
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
- Michael Harris II
- Randy Arozarena
- Randal Grichuck
- Bo Bichette – SS – Toronto Blue Jays – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Jorge Polanco – 2B – Twins
- Yandy Diaz – 1B – Rays
- Cal Raleigh – C – Mariners
- Matt Chapman – 3B – Giants
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr – Of – Diamondbacks
- Michael Harris – OF – Braves
- Mitch Haniger – OF – Mariners
- BONUS … Mookie Betts – SS – Dodgers
TOP BETS
Mariners/Blue Jays OVER 8