Siddown. Close the door. I got the Week 3 Tailgate open on the desk here and a cup of coffee that’s been cold since the second quarter, and we’re gonna go through it line by line, because that’s the service. Here’s the verdict up front, so nobody’s waiting around: our guy read the slate beautifully […]
The anytime touchdown board and DFS ownership both price the Rams as a full-strength home favorite; our model supports one Los Angeles touchdown price out of four, and the captain nobody is buying.
The market has Kansas City controlling a wet, run-first night at Arrowhead — our model agrees on the script and disagrees on who gets paid for it.
Seven games under the lights and only one of them I really care about. Texas is laying 30.5, Notre Dame 29.5, Oklahoma 21.5, and BYU is a 17.5-point road favorite at Colorado State … so the Night slate comes down to three one-score games and one of them has Lane Kiffin walking back into Oxford […]
Six games on this slate have a spread of 19.5 or bigger with the non high spread games pointing to some high scoring affairs. Overall, it’s gonna be one of those College Overs Weekends. SMU at Louisville (OU: 59.5, Louisville -1.5) The best game on the slate and it isn’t close. Near pick-em, highest total […]
Some people have blogs, and some just take to social media or other means to speak their own personal thoughts and feelings out loud as if we want someone to hear us or express our emotions. I’ve done that plenty of times because just writing about something you care about can feel refreshing and at […]
The market prices Lions at Bills as an Allen shootout; our model sees a Buffalo ground game, a fair James Cook III touchdown price and both passing lines set too high.
Either tonight or Friday will be the final MLB DFS article of the regular season but we’ll do some playoff MLB DFS as always. I’m on travel next week and it’s the final week of the MLB season coming up as well, so a good time to just chill out. WEATHER All clear A major pool of trash out there tonight, and if anyone hits 20 points from pitching then they’re in a good spot today. I find it amusing that George Kirby remains a $9000 pitcher. Merrill Kelly (DK: $6900) The wart on Kelly is certainly his high walk rates but when teams chase he does alright & the Marlins are one of the higher chase rate teams on change-ups. They’ve got potential to make long innings here but on a terrible SP slate, I don’t mind going with the home Kelly. Chris Bassitt (DK: $5500) Old man Bassitt spent one year in Citi Field and it was one of his better seasons. The larger park definitely fits his prototype & the Orioles are just letting him eat up innings as much as he can right now. For a solid floor at $5500 we take the guy who should outperform the $9k George Kirby. ROYALS vs ASTROS Love the over in this spot tonight. Jeremy Pena / Nelson Velasquez Vinnie Pasquantino / Carter Jensen / Maikel Garcia Padres vs Rockies Another spot in Coors that should go over easily. Jackson Merrill Cole Carrigg CATCHER Carter Jensen Hunter Goodman Joe Mack FIRST BASE Ty France Willson Contreras Vinnie Pasquantino SECOND BASE Ketel Marte Jake Cronenworth Connor Norby THIRD BASE Maikel Garcia Kyle Karross Manny Machado SHORTSTOP Bobby Witt Jr. Jeremy Pena Ezequiel Tovar OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Jackson Merrill Randy Arozarena Jac Caglianone Corbin Carroll OUTFIELD – TIER II Dylan Beavers Cole Carrigg Nelson Velasquez PCA Nelson Velasquez – OF – Houston Astros – Chairman of The Dongers Club Cole Carrigg – SS – Rockies Jackson Merrill – OF – Padres Maikel Garcia – 3B – Royals BETS Royals / Astros OVER 9 Diamondbacks ML
Sit down. Lemme tell you how this works. Our guy writes the Tailgate, the games get played, and then somebody has to come in and check the books. That’s me. If a call’s good, I say it’s good. If it stinks, I tell you it stinks. That’s the service. This is Tailgate Week 2, the […]
WEATHER Braves at Cubs: 72 degrees and 89% humidity. Sticky. No real rain threat. MAX FRIED (DK: $9000) The Twins are projected to run nine right-handed bats out there and righties have a .260 wOBA against Fried. 0.4 homers per nine, a 0.99 WHIP, and his sweeper is sitting at a .033 wOBA against. Not a typo. Minnesota is tied for the lowest team total on the slate and rates 30 points below its usual tonight. Only went 3.1 innings last time but struck out 7 in them. Don’t care. Stud arm — go mid-tier bats with him. ANDRE PALLANTE (DK: $8000) Not a strikeout guy, so let’s be honest about the ceiling. But the Giants are 23rd in baseball against sliders and 24th against four-seamers, those two pitches are 62% of his arsenal, and he gives up 0.6 homers per nine. Last time: 5 innings, 1 run. San Francisco has one of the lowest team totals on the slate at 3.2. Mid arm — the safe SP2. OTHER THOUGHTS Hunter Brown: The model’s number two, but the Royals are first in baseball against curveballs and sliders and only strike out 19% of the time. Not at $9500. Shane Baz: Fine, but in no mans land on pricing compared to others. PADRES Really like this game up north of the border & will back the road Tigers the most as Fisher’s very unproven IMO. It’s also young prospects do well season, which means guys like Max Clark suddenly do well and make us dream of drafting them way too early next year. Dillon Dingler Max Clark Riley Greene Colt Keith – Scratched last night, so watch that PADRES The Padres rate 26 points above their usual tonight for all the good reasons. Bad SP, the Park, bad bullpen, etc…., Tatis and Merrill are both slugging around .600 over their last 50 PA, and Tatis and Machado both went deep yesterday. And Coors is Xander Bogaerts’ best road park of his career: 1.083 OPS and 6 homers in 95 PA. Fernando Tatis Jr Manny Machado Jackson Merrill Xander Bogaerts MARINERS Ryan Johnson gives up 1.9 homers per nine, the worst of any starter on the MAIN, lefties are hitting .348 wOBA off him and Seattle is projected to throw seven lefties at him. In the best homer park on the slate. Enter Lazaro Montes: .484 […]
