The Twins @ Tigers game was moved up due to rain/weather and will not count on DraftKings, but FanDuel posted their slate late as normal and has included this game as well as an earlier start time. There is also a 10 am game as the Cubs/Cardinals will play in London so in case you are wondering why there is Baseball going on already, no, you didn’t oversleep.   WEATHER Stormy Sunday today, chance of Isolated Thunderstorms in just about every spot that isn’t in a dome today, so that pretty much makes this section easier to write. I believe every game finishes today, but the chance of delay in NY, BAL and PHI is high. Strong winds blowing OUT at New Comiskey Park.   SUNDAY SLEEPER CHARLIE MORTON (DK: $9300, FD: $9800) Here it is boys and girls.  The thing I alluded too yesterday and although the Braves won, we did have a high scoring game once again on Saturday.  Now we get the quiet/fast game as Uncle Chuck baffles the young Reds hitters and winds up as the top overall scoring pitcher on the slate.  Atlanta’s bullpen has been over worked of late as well, and with a veteran like Morton we should be expecting a 7 inning performance.  He has to manage to keep Elly off the bases to avoid the stress of him stealing but otherwise this is going to be my winning ticket today.   TOP CHALK PITCHER TYLER GLASNOW (DK: $8900, FD: $10k) Everyone, their brother, their half-brother, their brother from another mother and even your Uncle Sal are going to be touting Tyler Glasnow today vs the Royals. No way the Royals can win 3 of 4 vs the Rays, right?  NO way, Glasnow at sub 9k on DraftKings cannot mow down Pratto, Melendez and Olivares, right? Right.  It’s legit a no brainer. What could possibly go wrong???  Besides, Status Update:  Tyler Glasnow (back) leaves game early.   CHALK SP2 EURY PEREZ (DK: $8500, FD: $10.1k) Along with Glasnow I would guess that the other heavy ownership on SP on DraftKings logically is Eury Perez.  You won’t find a heavy justification for me to consider avoiding him on either site vs the Pirates.   OTHER NOTES I really think Yusei Kikuchi ($7100 on DK) will do fine vs Oakland outside of maybe a solo hr to Diaz. Eovaldi has seen his velocity drop […]

I won’t be bothering with tonights 4 game 7pm slate, as the 4PM afternoon slate today is the definitive MAIN slate with 10 games on it. The London Series starts up today as well with the 1PM start time and a nice fat 13.5 over/under, which is higher than I had hoped because we’re locked in on the fact that MLB uses juiced balls in a park where pitchers got zero spin last time they played there.  Again, the balls are not normal.  Hammer the over still. The good news today?  We have site synchronicity!   WEATHER Similar spots of concern today but unlike yesterday it’s not a PPD risk however it is a delay risk in these stadiums Philly, Baltimore, New York All games will finish.   TOP PITCHER JOSE BERRIOS (DK: $9900, FD: $9200) The transformation of Jose Berrios into Marcus Stroman and Marcus Stroman into Jose Berrios hasn’t been talked about much.  Berrios has gone from a good strikeout arm at 26% in 2021 down to 21% this year and his ground ball rate has jumped up to 47%.  He’s learned to pitch a little more consistently and has only been hit around by the Braves and Marlins (his last start) this year.  The Jays don’t lose Saturday home games to the lowly Athletics.   SECONDARY OPTIONS There just isn’t a clear second choice today due to rain (Gray/Severino, Scherzer) and due to — no, no chance in hell I touch Lance Lynn vs Devers with Lynn coming off a 16 strikeout outing.  Nuh-uh, no thank you…. OSVALDO BIDO (DK: $7400, FD: $7600) Pitching today is dog crap and Bido isn’t going to be someone that’s around long in the majors but for now he is feeling himself and shouldn’t have any problems with the Marlins after Arraez today.  SP2 is all about risk avoidance, who is going to not put us into the negative around 4:30 today and Bido fits that bill. TANNER BIBEE (DK: $8100, FD: $8500) Two things which bug me here, the lefties obviously in Cleveland (even though Bibee will continue to be good vs LHH) and a very high Humidity/Dewpoint rating which should help the ball travel today & is a big reason why Peralta isn’t on my radar either. Throw those things out however and there’s plenty to like with a free swinging Milwaukee lineup who has to face Bibee’s excellent […]

Today is a Friday.  So there are going to be 15 games tonight, right?  RIGHT??   Newp.  The Cubs, the CUBS of all teams, are being sent over to London to play in London for some unknown reason.  They of course are playing the Cardinals and if you dont think Paul Goldschmidt could double as a guard at Buckingham Palace then I don’t know what else to tell you. So yeah, do the math people, this means there is no Cubs afternoon game on Friday, June 23rd.  I am once again letting MLB know that I am available for hire to do their schedule. We also have four teams who insist on doing 6:40 PM start times tonight, and God forbid FD or DK decide to give us a full 14 game slate with those on them.  This means no Braves/Reds, no Twins/Tigers, no Pirates/Marlins and no Royals/Rays.  I know you are all very sad.   WEATHER Could be ugly, but its trending better than I thought. A 10 game slate tonight which includes the Angels in Coors Field and has weather issues in the following spots.  I am going to put High/Med/Low next to each game which designated the chances that the game is PPD. Mariners at Orioles – Med Mets at Phillies – Med Rangers at Yankees – Med/Low Brewers at Guardians – Low   I do not look at my Dashboard when I first go through deciding on the pitchers I want to look at.  I have a process where I just look at each game and quickly determine who I want to consider and who I do not.  So the fact that my 3 guys here are EXACTLY how they are on the Dashboard (as of Noon) is total coincidence. Then again, I am the guy who built the logic that goes into the ratings, so I guess it shouldn’t be that much of a shocker, should it? None of the SP’s to consider tonight have rain issues.   TOP PITCHER PATRICK SANDOVAL (DK: $6800 / FD: $8200) This is not a ‘leverage’ against Coors play.  I really think Sandoval in Colorado is a solid option and in fact, any lefty right now vs the Rockies is going to be worthy of usage unless Jurickson Profar decides to have his 3 game hot streak or guys like Montero, Montes or Doyle — which sounds like a cross between […]

This is your typical Thursday day off for MLB.  Of the games going today, two of them are make-up games (Braves/Phillies & Diamondbacks/Nationals) and then tonight there are 3 more games which we will just pretend are never going to happen. The Diamondbacks/Nationals game is a make-up from a couple weeks ago and the D’Backs are just in town for one day, likely tired as hell seeing all this rain and eager to get back on the plane and head back out west to face the Giants.  Look aheads really aren’t a thing in MLB, but holy heck this is a lookahead spot — hammer the under on this game.   WEATHER Mother nature is giving MLB a pass here today.  The two make-up games are both in rainy spots but it looks like it will be clear enough to play through both of them.  Those spots are ATL/PHI and ARI/WSH…   I could make a case for about 7 starting pitchers on this slate and there’s only 9 as Boston should be going with a true bullpen game.   ARMS I AM ON AARON NOLA This settles in as Nola, Ryan and Snell.  I cannot get on the Joe Ryan spot in warm Minnesota and with Boston hitting very well of late, he is the one who I just don’t see burning me by fading him.  The Giants are also hitting well of late too, but Snell is going to be right here with Nola overall. I assume the weather is clear, if it shifts obviously then we need to go down to Blake Snell, but you will see plenty of Atlanta ownership against Nola since they have positive history against him, but this is an advantage Nola spot coming off the extra days rest and a likely quick get away afternoon 2-0 Phillies win. Don’t be shocked if Bryce Elder has a 20+ DK game too, I like him a good amount. JAKE IRVIN When they announced this game a couple weeks ago as a fly in and fly out spot for Arizona, I had to circle it as a definite under.  Unfortunately we get Tommy Henry and Jake Irvin, two guys who can pitch well but won’t run away with any slate for you.  If we can get depth from Irvin, who has pitched well for the Nationals then we’re going to be just fine.  Go contrarian […]

WEATHER All games play TOP ARM LUIS CASTILLO Like Castillo a lot even going into the smaller park.  Yankees hit early last night but still no power at all. SECONDARY ARMS GAVIN WILLIAMS Williams is a legit prospect for the Tribe, he’s getting an easy intro with Oakland and should produce a safe score despite being a rookie which I normally fade YU DARVISH Padres win tonight and they’ll need Darvish to go 7 for that to happen OTHER PITCHING NOTES Ohtani is going to do fine vs the Dodgers and should finish with 9 strikeouts.  Don’t hate paying for him but also like the Castillo play as much for cheaper   RANGERS Seager, Lowe These are the top 2 plays tonight across the entire slate.  Kopech and power to lefties is the reason and these two don’t suck at all.  10+ mph winds out to right should help a little bit but probably isn’t needed for either of these guys. MARINERS Kelenic, Raleigh We can see a 4 man Mariners build working out tonight, I expect them to put up 5+ more runs and get to Brito early. BOSTON / MINNESOTA BOS:  Verdugo, Duvall MIN:  Correa, Buxton, Kiriloff Still warm in Minnesota and finally the Twins are waking up and Sonny Gray vs Boston is not going to finish well for him.     CATCHER Cal Raleigh Jonah Heim   FIRST BASE Nate Lowe Josh Naylor Alex Kiriloff   SECOND BASE Luis Rengifo Marcus Semien Ed Julien   THIRD BASE Rafael Devers Josh Jung Jose Ramirez   SHORTSTOP Corey Seager Carlos Correa   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Jarred Kelenic Teoscar Hernandez Seth Brown Adam Duvall   Jarred Kelenic – OF – Seattle Mariners – Chairman of The Dongers Club     TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over… Rangers/White Sox Red Sox/Twins   Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game. Braves/Phillies Padres/Giants   ML Targets Mariners Padres Rangers Twins  

7 game early slate today and 6 game Main slate tonight.  The seven games going early include: Blue Jays at Marlins Orioles at Rays Cubs at Pirates Rockies at Reds Royals at Tigers Diamondbacks at Brewers Mets at Astros   WEATHER No weather concerns early.   TOP ARM ZAC GALLEN (DK: $10,100, FD: $10,500) No chance Mr. Jesse Winker touches the baseball today after his HR we called last night, so just mark down those K’s in the box score, but make sure one is backwards so you don’t get canceled for being racist. Oh, and throw in some more for Adames, Urias and Tellez too.  Maybe a walk for Tellez.  But really I cannot find a single hitter on the Brewers I like, which means they might put up 10 in the first inning given how that usually plays for for stud pitchers.  Gallen hasn’t thrown over 100 pitches in his last 2 starts which is a good thing here, he should be fresh to go deep.   SECONDARY ARMS ANDREW ABBOTT (DK: $8,200) As much as I am backing the Reds right now and through this season now I am still not buying into AA long term as more than a #3/#4 arm, although really that’s what they just want him to be.  But if you listen to DFS analysts you probably think he shits golden turtles with PhD’s every time he eats McDonalds food. All that aside, the Rockies are in a getaway spot before returning home after this road trip (DO NOT GOOGLE WHO THEY PLAY AT HOME THIS WEEKEND IF YOU DONT WANT TO RUIN YOUR DAY) and their two best hitters right now are both on the left side (McMahon/Jones) — so we’re basically wondering if Randal Grichuk or Jurickson Profar are gonna be able to touch Abbott’s pitch from the left side and maybe Grichuk can get the bat out in front to pull one to LF or it’s going to end up going foul in his 2nd AB today.  Either way, Abbott will come through with another 15-18 point performance. BRADY SINGER (DK: $5,500) Hang on.  Singer vs the Tigers for 5500?   OTHER PITCHING NOTES Gausman vs Sandy is quite the name draw, can Gausman strike out Luis Arraez though?  That’s the drama I want to see in this game.   I won’t laugh at you if you want to go Gausman […]

Broken down by pricing tiers, Mark Farris outlines his favorite PGA DFS plays on DraftKings

Somewhere out there in the DFS land someone is going to mention that today is a “big” slate.  It’s not, we are deprived of four Turbo slate games my friends.  Some might say this is a random Tuesday, and they would be right, but it’s not your average random Tuesday night because there’s some large contests out there in DFS land.   WEATHER Couple minor spots with rain but all should play. Cardinals at Nationals Cubs at Pirates Rockies at Reds Athletics at Guardians – Expect this one to be delayed at the start then play. TOP ARM GERRITT COLE (DK: $10.9k, FD: $10,600) Mr. $100k for me last year is getting a Mariners team who has been striking out more than a single white nerdy dude who lives in an apartment and sells DFS advice on the internet does at his local watering hole.  The 4-9 part of Seattle’s lineup is strikeout heaven right now for opposing RHP, Cole is getting what should be a quiet weather night in Yankee Stadium and most likely this game finishes as a 1-0 final, just not sure we can be positive who wins it with the way the Yankee lineup is hitting.  But Cole is our guy today for 8 IP, 10K performance.   SECONDARY ARMS DYLAN CEASE (DK: $7700, FD: $8,600) Two guys who are probably too cheap in Cease and Verlander, and while Verlander gets all the attention tonight I will jump on the Cease heater coming off a 10K performance last outing and now facing the best team in the AL right now.  It’s dangerous, it’s contrarian, it’s also a Dylan Cease night my friends. MARCUS STROMAN (DK: $8900, FD: $10,300) – Minor rain pop up concerns A guy who isn’t known for strikeouts against a lineup not known for strikeouts is not exactly a “win me the slate” spot when you are almost 9k and certainly not for his 10.3k price on FanDuel.  But if you put that aside, we should see Stroman have a clean game today, he’s pitched well all season and should be pitching well down the stretch to either help the Cubs or get potentially shipped out somewhere else before the trade deadline.  7 innings of limited hits and runs tonight gets him into the 18 DK FPTS range which should be a fine pairing with Cole.   OTHER PITCHING NOTES I really like both […]

This Monday kicks off what should be a big contest week across the mean DFS streets there at DraftKings and FanDuel.  It’s their last chance to grab some of that GOLF DFS money from everyone before we really go into a 2+ month stretch without any other big sports (sans The Open in July). Tonight starts off with two games in the 6:40 PM Turbo window not on the MAIN slates and then a 7 game MAIN slate on both FD and DK. Overall tonight is an UGLY slate, so I would tread lightly and not be afraid to just go all in on a contrarian spot.   WEATHER Rockies at Reds — If you had this as the game of the night back in March then congrats.  Unfortunately, it’s got a TON of rain and likely is going to be PPD long before this article actually publishes.  It should be a rough week for the Reds grounds crew as they have rain projected every day and a full week of home games coming outside of Thursday when BOTH these teams are off.  So basically they have four days to figure out how to get 3 games in and my guess is today they’ll just go with a PPD and figure it out Tue-Thu. Red Sox at Twins — It’s gonna be hotter than … well, tits on a Kirby Puckett blow up doll, up in Target Field.   TOP ARM CORBIN BURNES (DK: $10k, FD: $10.6k) Normally I would back the Diamondbacks on the road in a sneaky park, but this isn’t the best matchup hitting the road for your first game after a nice long homestand.  They’ll struggle to do work on Burnes who’s been solid of late vs LHH in particular and he’ll see about 6 of them tonight.   SECONDARY ARMS MICHAEL WACHA (DK: $8300) The mighty Giants, fresh off the most runs they have ever scored in a 3 game series vs the Dodgers now will be shut down by the suddenly resurgent Michael Wacha?!?!  Yes, you are reading that correctly.  Don’t overblow the fact that the Giants beat up on some bad Dodger pitching and bullpen right now, they should go back to being bad at home and it’s hard not to like what Wacha is doing of late.  He is a big fat NO on FanDuel though, not 10k, GTFOH… MERRILL KELLY (DK: […]

Happy Father’s Day to everyone who is going to be celebrating today by working hard to grow their kids inheritance somehow betting on the Angels to not blow an 8-2 lead against the lowly Royals! There is no brunch game today, because Dad’s don’t want Brunch although the Orioles @ Cubs game is a 1:05 start which is a Noon start there in Wrigley. The Yankees and Red Sox are playing two up in Fenway in a split double-header, with the first game on FanDuel’s MAIN slate and the second game the Showdown Sunday Night Baseball game for both sites.   WEATHER Tigers at Twins … They can wait it out and get this game in, but there is a strong chance the rain continues long enough to have them just PPD the game.  Both teams have games tomorrow at home, they can wait it out. Rockies at Braves … Chance of pop-up storms.  Typical Hotlanta day. Angels at Royals … Rain all morning, should clear out before first pitch   TOP ARM / SUNDAY SLEEPER Ronel Blanco (DK: $5500, FD: $6300) All good things come to an end, even the Cincinnati Reds hot streak.  Do you all remember my love affair with Jake Junis?  Okay, so there was a little homerism there, but Blanco is basically the Dominican version of Junigoat.  He’s gonna throw his slider over and over and it doesn’t necessarily pop off the charts in terms of movement, but it just dies right at the front of the plate allowing him to get by with it and have a pretty good 27.2% swinging strike rate.  Cincinnati is fairly aggressive on sliders biting on that pitch 30%+ of the time and at this price in a spot where I see the Reds streak ending we can comfortably take him today coming off two 94 pitch games.   SECONDARY ARMS Jon Gray (DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.4k) Jon Gray is arguably the next best pitcher right now on this slate but Toronto has managed to drastically reduce their strikeouts of late – down to just 19% over the last 10 days.  It’s hard for me to push him up as your top must own even though he was on a roll prior to missing a start due to a blister.  However, the Jays are RHH and Gray has not been blown up by RHH at all, gotta think he […]