Happy Father’s Day to everyone who is going to be celebrating today by working hard to grow their kids inheritance somehow betting on the Angels to not blow an 8-2 lead against the lowly Royals!
There is no brunch game today, because Dad’s don’t want Brunch although the Orioles @ Cubs game is a 1:05 start which is a Noon start there in Wrigley.
The Yankees and Red Sox are playing two up in Fenway in a split double-header, with the first game on FanDuel’s MAIN slate and the second game the Showdown Sunday Night Baseball game for both sites.
WEATHER
- Tigers at Twins … They can wait it out and get this game in, but there is a strong chance the rain continues long enough to have them just PPD the game. Both teams have games tomorrow at home, they can wait it out.
- Rockies at Braves … Chance of pop-up storms. Typical Hotlanta day.
- Angels at Royals … Rain all morning, should clear out before first pitch
TOP ARM / SUNDAY SLEEPER
Ronel Blanco (DK: $5500, FD: $6300)
All good things come to an end, even the Cincinnati Reds hot streak. Do you all remember my love affair with Jake Junis? Okay, so there was a little homerism there, but Blanco is basically the Dominican version of Junigoat. He’s gonna throw his slider over and over and it doesn’t necessarily pop off the charts in terms of movement, but it just dies right at the front of the plate allowing him to get by with it and have a pretty good 27.2% swinging strike rate. Cincinnati is fairly aggressive on sliders biting on that pitch 30%+ of the time and at this price in a spot where I see the Reds streak ending we can comfortably take him today coming off two 94 pitch games.
SECONDARY ARMS
Jon Gray (DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.4k)
Jon Gray is arguably the next best pitcher right now on this slate but Toronto has managed to drastically reduce their strikeouts of late – down to just 19% over the last 10 days. It’s hard for me to push him up as your top must own even though he was on a roll prior to missing a start due to a blister. However, the Jays are RHH and Gray has not been blown up by RHH at all, gotta think he has a solid outing on his return to the bump
Jesus Luzardo (DK: $9900, FD: $9500)
Credit to Braxton Garrett for getting the strikeouts I did not think he would vs the Nationals on Saturday. We have Luzardo back on the east coast and on a Sunday, so the narrative crowd should be rejoicing today. What better day to hammer dorky narratives than fathers day too? Luzardo should bounce back, won’t match the Garrett game yesterday, but it’ll be close.
OTHER PITCHING NOTES
The extreme heat/humidity in Atlanta has me concerned about trusting old man Charlie Morton today. With the chance of a pop-up storm as well we’re going to pass on him at 10k+.
I see too many walks in Freddy Peralta’s outing today
Louie Varland could/should pitch well vs the Tigers. Rain delay and possibly throwing off his warm-up timing is too much of a concern.
METS
Francisco Lindor, Thomas Pham, Starling Marte, Mark Canha
Death. Taxes. Citi Field Sunday overs my friends. The Lib will start for the Cards, so the RH bats for the Mets vault to the top and what better way to play DFS today than to stack around a good player who had a day off on Saturday because his manager made him take off to be with his new kid — and now it’s fathers day? Hello Mr. Lindor.
MARLINS
Jorge Soler, Yuli Gurriel, Bryan De La Cruz
Patrick Corbin will start for the Nationals and we have a scenario in which he probably goes OVER his strikeout prop (4.5) but also gives up 5 ER in the process.
ORIOLES
Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Ryan O’Hearn
It’s harder to hit in Wrigley when the wind blows in from RF like today, but a day game without heavy winds & Jameson Taillon on the mound should negate all that.
BRAVES
Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies
Easily the chalk spot today since we have a heavy ML favorite in Atlanta. They’re easier to load up on FanDuel where you don’t have to get burned with pricing that much today and this 1-2 combination leading off is hitting well and the logical choice.
CATCHER
- Salvador Perez … The wrist looks fine and I would suspect he is DH today. He’s hit Tyler Anderson well before and that’s expected as he hits soft tossing lefties well.
- Adley Rutschman
- Yainder Diaz … Will be chalky at $3000 if he starts again since he is C eligible.
FIRST BASE
Very deep position today. I would pivot off Cooper and over to Yuli Gurriel in Marlins stacks because Yuli will not strikeout and Cooper should… Ryan O’Hearn feels dirty but he is rolling right now and the Mets have two guys in Vientos/Canha who have been filling in at 1B so they are eligible there and cheap to fill out a Mets stack. Nate Lowe/Paul Goldschmidt are excellent one offs here.
- Yuli Gurriel
- Ryan O’Hearn
- Nate Lowe
- Mark Vientos
SECOND BASE
- Nolan Gorman … Do not expect the Cardinals to just lay down and lose 9-0 today. The’ll help the over out and with Gorman struggling he should be happy to see Carlos Carrasco on the mound to break out of an ugly slump. If you want the more consistent Cardinal right now for cheaper then go with #2 here.
- Brendan Donovan
- Nico Hoerner
THIRD BASE
- Nolan Arenado
- Gunnar Henderson
- Ryan McMahon
SHORTSTOP
- Francisco Lindor
- Bobby Witt Jr
- Paul DeJong
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
OF is loaded on this slate
- Jorge Soler
- Sir Thomas Pham
- Kyle Tucker
- Mike Trout
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Ronald Acuna Jr.
- Bryan De La Cruz
- Taylor Ward
- Anthony Santander
OUTFIELD – Value
- Mark Canha
- Jack Suwinski
- Matt Vierling
- Francisco Lindor – SS – Mets – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Salvador Perez – C – Royals
- Nate Lowe – 1B – Rangers
- Nico Hoerner – 2B – Cubs
- Nolan Arenado – 3B – Cardinals
- Jorge Soler – OF – Marlins
- Kyle Tucker – OF – Astros
- Thomas Pham – OF – Mets
- BONUS ……………. Mike Trout – OF – Angels
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Cardinals/Mets
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Tigers/Twins
ML Targets
- Astros + Brewers ML Parlay
- Rangers
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ‘TILT’ SLATE THOUGHTS …
PITCHING
- Bryce Miller … Chicago has had too many whiffs all series long.
- Joe Musgrove
- Lance Lynn … SEA K% is too high for him not to wind up with a typical Lance Lynn start. 100 pitches, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 strikeouts.
STACKS
- Guardians (Ramirez, Naylor, Gimenez)
- Diamondbacks (Marte, Carroll)
- Dodgers Kids (Vargas, Outman, Busch)
ONE OFF HITTERS
- Xander Bogaerts
- Jarred Kelenic