This Monday kicks off what should be a big contest week across the mean DFS streets there at DraftKings and FanDuel. It’s their last chance to grab some of that GOLF DFS money from everyone before we really go into a 2+ month stretch without any other big sports (sans The Open in July).
Tonight starts off with two games in the 6:40 PM Turbo window not on the MAIN slates and then a 7 game MAIN slate on both FD and DK.
Overall tonight is an UGLY slate, so I would tread lightly and not be afraid to just go all in on a contrarian spot.
WEATHER
Rockies at Reds — If you had this as the game of the night back in March then congrats. Unfortunately, it’s got a TON of rain and likely is going to be PPD long before this article actually publishes. It should be a rough week for the Reds grounds crew as they have rain projected every day and a full week of home games coming outside of Thursday when BOTH these teams are off. So basically they have four days to figure out how to get 3 games in and my guess is today they’ll just go with a PPD and figure it out Tue-Thu.
Red Sox at Twins — It’s gonna be hotter than … well, tits on a Kirby Puckett blow up doll, up in Target Field.
TOP ARM
CORBIN BURNES (DK: $10k, FD: $10.6k)
Normally I would back the Diamondbacks on the road in a sneaky park, but this isn’t the best matchup hitting the road for your first game after a nice long homestand. They’ll struggle to do work on Burnes who’s been solid of late vs LHH in particular and he’ll see about 6 of them tonight.
SECONDARY ARMS
MICHAEL WACHA (DK: $8300)
The mighty Giants, fresh off the most runs they have ever scored in a 3 game series vs the Dodgers now will be shut down by the suddenly resurgent Michael Wacha?!?! Yes, you are reading that correctly. Don’t overblow the fact that the Giants beat up on some bad Dodger pitching and bullpen right now, they should go back to being bad at home and it’s hard not to like what Wacha is doing of late. He is a big fat NO on FanDuel though, not 10k, GTFOH…
MERRILL KELLY (DK: $9600, FD: $10.6k)
The D’Backs are going to need 6+ IP from MK tonight, because their pen is a little tired and Kelly is someone they normally get depth from. Combine that with Milwaukee being very middle of the road offensively and a likely low scoring game all around and we can gamestack it and take a 40+ combined SP point night without much sweat.
OTHER PITCHING NOTES
I am done predicting Max Scherzer in the year of our lord 2023. You know exactly what the deal is with Max. If he is going to be on then he’ll be in that 7-9 strikeout window, which isn’t likely vs Houston. If he is off, you can expect 2-3 HR off him. Just make your own choice here and go, I am done trying to predict – although I will say I like the signs of life from Bregman and Tucker.
TWINS
Correa, Buxton, Vazquez
Full disclosure if you weren’t aware, the Twins are the coldest team in Baseball on offense in June and I don’t care. They have talent vs LHP and will get a 20 degree boost in temps all week long as a big time heat wave rolls through Target Field. James Paxton continues to pitch better than I expect him too but tonight I’ll once again go to the well attacking him.
CUBS vs PIRATES
CHC: Bellinger, Happ, Suzuki…. PIT: Castro, Hayes
Both teams are pretty bad right now, so lets look at PNC park for offense? Feels weird to say, and disturbing to think about Cody Bellinger, Rodolfo Castro and KeBryan Hayes winning the slate, but we have that scenario here. The Pirates bullpen itself has a 12+ ERA over the last week, with a young Osvaldo Bido on the mound starting off tonight. Somehow the Cubs post a 6 spot today.
If the COL/CIN series is rained out, then go here.
ROCKIES vs REDS – Rain/PPD Risk…
If somehow the rain clears out and they play (Cincy has been known for waiting and playing, the field drains well) then you’ll be paid off gloriously going here, but don’t sleep on the Rockies even though the Reds are the hotter team all around. Great spot for Grichuk, Profar and Diaz.
Cincinnati is a bit of a disaster to ‘stack’ right now. We have a bunch of infield guys eligible at multiple spots and then your OF options are Steer, Senzel and a couple lefties who likely sit or get bad batting order spots vs Gomber. However you slice it, building around India and Steer is the focus.
CATCHER
- Henry Davis … Pirates #1 prospect/pick Henry Davis is up tonight, he is 2k on DK
- Elias Diaz
- Tyler Stephenson
- Christian Vazquez
FIRST BASE
- Kevin Newman
- Andrew Vaughn
- Nate Lowe
SECOND BASE
- Jonathan India
- Rodolfo Castro
- Marcus Semien
THIRD BASE
- Rafael Devers
- Royce Lewis
- Manny Machado
SHORTSTOP
- Carlos Correa
- Ha Seong Kim
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Byron Buxton … Nobody colder than Buxton and nobody should benefit more from warm weather than him
- Randal Grichuk
- Cody Bellinger
- Spencer Steer
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Seiya Suzuki
- Starling Marte
- Nick Senzel
- Kyle Tucker
OUTFIELD – Value
- Jurickson Profar
- Michael A Taylor
- Byron Buxton – OF – Minnesota Twins – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Kyle Tucker – OF – Astros
- Cody Bellinger – OF – Cubs
- Kevin Newman – 1B – Reds
- Jonathan India – 2B – Reds
- Manny Machado – 3B – Padres
- Carlos Correa – SS – Twins
- Elias Diaz – C – Rockies
- BONUS ……………….. Spencer Steer – OF – Reds
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Red Sox/Twins
- Rockies/Reds
- Cubs/Pirates
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Rangers/White Sox
- Diamondbacks/Brewers
- Padres/Giants
ML Targets
- Twins, Twins, Twins, Twins, Twins, Twins, Twins, Twins, Twins
- Padres