Slate configuration notes.  DraftKings has skipped adding San Diego/Philadelphia & St. Louis/Pittsburgh onto the MAIN slate tonight.  That sucks. WEATHER Both games in Pennsylvania though have some weather concerns for those on FanDuel.  I think they will play. CHASE BURNS (DK: $8000, FD: $8800) Burns goes on the road but I saw nothing from the kid in his first start to think he will run into walk issues.  He has a poise and confidence that comes from pitching at a high level in college and it gives me enough trust and faith to use him against Crochet in the game of the night (game of the week?) from a pitching perspective.  Maybe a solo HR to Romany Anthony, or a double, but 7+ strikeouts is not being too optimistic IMO. After Burns you obviously have Garrett Crochet, who is going to be the highest owned pitcher IMO tonight.  At first I would point out we have other good pitching choices – but the risk here is that the offense is limited outside of paying up for a couple Yankees.  So take the safe points with Crochet. ALSO WILL BE OKAY DREW RASMUSSEN (DK: $7500, FD: $8700) … Paying up for Crochet in a game stack with Burns is not a stupid idea — but there’s nothing against Rasmussen either except he only pitches at most 6 innings. GEORGE KIRBY (DK: $7700, FD: $8200) … This is not April games in Seattle when everything was 2-1, as I think you see this game creep towards that 7.5 total — however the Royals do suck offensively enough that I have to give Kirby the props here.   YANKEES vs BLUE JAYS We want and we shall get 3+ HR in this game all total between the two clubs. Judge Rice Bichette – SCRATCHED Vlad   MARINERS Tons of value here.  Going back home the offense should go back to normal but is still worth using. Canzone Raley Polanco   CATCHER The rare — we can play two catchers from the same team, which do we go with?  It’s like we’re in 2015 and the Detroit Tigers are in Minnesota forcing a decision between Victor Martinez & James McCann — boy did I just date myself… Ben Rice – Can be used at 1B obviously Austin Wells   FIRST BASE Vlad Guerrero Jr. Bryce Harper – FD Only, but possibly Back and ready […]

Happy 11 game Sunday Slate where I look to keep the streak going of touting an NL West team who is going to score 0 runs.  Who’s next??? WEATHER No issues SPENCER STRIDER (DK: $9500, FD: $9500) and RANGER SUAREZ (DK: $9800, FD: $10,400) … These two against each other in HotLanta for a day game is not the best situation, but both are a little under priced and both are pitching well enough that I cannot envision them getting absolutely rocked.  With a short list of trusted arms that have upside today I think you gotta take a look at both and lean on Suarez to pitch better but Strider to have the 6+ strikeout game. OTHER OPTIONS CHAD PATRICK (DK: $9100, FD: $8600) LUIS CASTILLO (DK: $8700, FD: $8800)   ASTROS ATHLETICS GIANTS PADRES   CATCHER Ben Rice Kyle Teel Salvador Perez   FIRST BASE Christian Walker Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Pete Alonso   SECOND BASE Brandon Lowe Jazz Chisholm Jr. Jackson Holliday   THIRD BASE Manny Machado Rafael Devers Manny Machado Rafael Devers   SHORTSTOP Gunnar Henderson Jacob Wilson Willy Adames   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Christian Yelich Cam Smith Colton Cowser Lawrence Butler   OUTFIELD – Tier II Cody Bellinger George Springer Heliot Ramos Mike Yastrzemski   Brandon Lowe – 2B – Tampa Bay Rays – Chairman of The Dongers Club Rafael Devers – 3B – SF Giants Christian Walker – 1B – Astros Gunnar Henderson – SS – Orioles Ben Rice – C – Yankees Lawrence Butler – OF – Athletics Colton Coswer – OF – Orioles George Springer – OF – Blue Jays BONUS … Manny Machado – 3B – Padres   TOP BETS Mets/Pirates UNDER 9.5

Results matter and despite any commentary on Baseballs and inconsistency and Friday night Summer overs, I will just say it like it is.  My article yesterday wound up being complete dog shit. The great news is that we have site synchronicity today.  Two games in the 1PM early window with New York having their traditional Saturday afternoon game along with the Twins vs Tigers. Then a big 10 game Main slate at 4PM, wrapped up by the small 3 game night cap with the spots in Anaheim, Houston and Atlanta. WEATHER Possible storms in Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Kansas City, Cleveland, Cincinnati but nothing that is going to put a game at PPD risk or even significant concern for pitching … We’ll get to pitching in a moment. It’s humid in a ton of places, but I have lost any hope trying to pinpoint how the Baseballs do act with Humidity in certain stadiums because it’s clear that some days they pull the balls out at 7am from the humidor and other days they’re rushing it immediately (i.e. the 3rd-8th innings when they’re out of baseballs and need a new batch). That said, we are in the business of being predictive and making forward thinking assumptions and decisions which leads me to saying that if you like betting HR props and you like betting YRFI’s then today should be good for you. So, pitching.  You could have a guy who walks the bases loaded in the first inning and racks up almost 40 pitches as nearly 45% chalk still manage to finish with a very good score.  You could have another guy drop a 45 and he didn’t even have the no-hitter going into the 9th inning.  Or you could have pitchers in the games where there are 30 runs.  Hey, good luck! I am less interested in which stadiums are good for pitchers or which offenses are cold today.  I am entirely focused on the pitcher side of the equation for my choices right now — almost ignoring the opponent — which yes, can be dangerous but that is how I would I see the process going today & likely through until the All-Star Break. OUR BEST CHOICES KUMAR ROCKER (DK: $6500, FD: $7700) I dont like Ray, I don’t trust Bassitt, I dont have the guts to go Lugo.  So the #1 spot is going to someone who I atleast […]

WEATHER Mostly just pop-up storms that could hit in a few spots, but the one which is most likely to be at risk is Phillies @ Braves because Atlanta storms can be violent despite being quick, and even a short 28 minute storm could bump the first of a 3 game series tonight to be played later. The other games which are at risk of a delay in game are in Cleveland, Cincinnati and Detroit.  All should start and finish. I only have two main pitchers tonight because I would lock in on them way above the field. LOGAN GILBERT (DK: $10,000, FD: $10,500) Gilbert’s third start since coming off the IL & another one in a climate controlled dome.  He’ll be great today, so much so that I’ll go out and call a 7 IP, 0 ER, 10 strikeout outing tonight. JOSE SORIANO (DK: $7400, FD: $9300) No rain issues with Soriano & one of the better strikeout upsides on the slate.  He has gotten a ton of whiffs lately and just does not give up home runs.  For whatever reason DK has not priced him up at all yet either despite his strong run. OTHER PITCHING NOTES Dustin May (DK: $7800) … Have to mention every SP against Kansas City, but unfortunately expecting May to pitch DEEP is the problem. Brayan Bello:  ONLY if Vladdy sits Landen Roupp – I do not trust him outside of San Francisco   There’s a reason I say this is Lineups to Target rather than ‘STACKS’, because loading up on a specific stack will sometimes just lock you into blinders or a bad spot too often.  However, after a quiet week of offense around the league with a ton of shutouts, the change of scenery and a good configuration of match-ups + warm weather should eventually produce some big 10+ run type games from teams. The teams who stand out to me the most are (in no particular order), the Rays (in Baltimore), Blue Jays (in Fenway), Padres (in tiny Cincy), Cardinals (in Cleveland). STLiC CARDINALS Lars Nootbar, Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson, Nolan Gorman The Lefties in Cleveland with 90+ degree temps & ole Luis L Ortiz who has given up 8 HR to lefties on the year & a .429 SLG. PADRES Jackson Merrill, Gavin Sheets Former Padre Nick Matrtinez gets the nod for the Reds and he hasn’t throw much […]

A really good Thursday afternoon slate with 8 games that start at 1PM and are long done before the lone night game tonight between the Braves & Mets, which is a Showdown spot and honestly a good night to just go do something else. WEATHER All clear It’s hard to ignore the teams who are ice cold offensively as targets today, but we do need to consider the variables of who is facing them and the weather conditions + law of averages. A sleeper pick today if the weather holds off is Simeon Woods Richardon, not a guy I would normally be high on but this is a classic get away and get home to end a long road trip spot for Seattle to come out and put up an egg. HUNTER BROWN (DK: $11,300 – FD: $10,200) SIMEON WOODS RICHARDSON (DK: $7200 – FD $7300) HAYDEN BIRDSONG (DK: $8000 – FD $8200)   We’re still a couple weeks away from the All-Star Break but some teams really look like they could use a trip out of the country right now.  Specifically the Royals, Giants and the Phillies couldn’t hit a ball into the ocean if they were standing on the beach right now.  Like, it’s really bad. So is the cure a getaway game with warm afternoon weather?  One would think that could help but the Royals & Giants are at home and neither can hit at home to save their life.  Christ, the Royals havent WON a game at home the entire month of June! We have to be smart, we have to stay away from those who just plain ole suck right now, despite matchups…  We have to be smart… I repeat…  We have to be … ROYALS / RAYS  BLUE JAYS / GUARDIANS   CATCHER Salvador Perez … He has a World Series ring, do you?  okay then, I didn’t think so. Alejandro Kirk   FIRST BASE Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Yandy Diaz Spencer Torkelson … Another ICE cold bat that should not be overlooked today   SECOND BASE Brandon Lowe Willi Castro Jorge Polanco   THIRD BASE Addison Barger Junior Caminero Jose Ramirez   SHORTSTOP Jacob Wilson Bobby Witt Jr. Willy Adames   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Brent Rooker Seiya Suzuki Josh Lowe Jahmai Jones   OUTFIELD – Tier II Cam Smith Pete Crow Armstrong Nolan Jones   Addison Barger – 3B – Toronto Blue Jays […]

WEATHER SEA at MIN — Good chance of storms/rain here. LOGAN WEBB (DK: $10,000 – FD: $11,000) Webb vs Marlins at home.  He’s the safest spot on the board and is just slightly ahead of Zack Wheeler for ‘Ace’ SP1 to pay up for tonight. CLAY HOLMES (DK: $7700 – FD: $9000) Love Holmes & the Mets tonight to win.  They’ve gone 1-10 or something along those lines lately and a big portion has been on the offense – but when that’s happening your pitching has to be even better.  Holmes just saw Atlanta in Atlanta and only got through 4 2/3 IP on 104 pitches, but it was the walks that doomed him.  At home in Queens he should be better & is the ideal SP2 in my book today against the Braves — who yeah, they do still strikeout too much. ALSO LIKE Tons of other good options today including Wheeler (#1 alt), Fried (#2 alt), Yamamoto (#3 alt), but the two guys who could shine today are Drew Rasmussen & Edward Cabrera as good value arms.  Rasmussen will not go clean but he will go 6…. RAYS They’re going to take Wacha out back and pound the crap out of him.  Sorry Mikey.  I would go 4+ Rays with warm and good wind conditions in Kauffman finally heating hte park up.  Slight lean on Yandy over Aranda, but both are great 1B plays after the Lowe’s and before the Hoe’s (Caminero & company).  Lowe’s and Hoes..  Lowe’s and Hoes.  Gotta have me some Lowe’s and hoes…. (sorry) CUBS / CARDINALS Keep on shopping here until the ball stops flying.  The Cubs pitching is a MAJOR problem and the summer will continue to expose it. TIER TWO YANKEES (Bellinger) METS (Lindor)     CATCHER Austin Wells Danny Jansen Pedro Pages   FIRST BASE Willson Contreras Yandy Diaz / Jonathan Aranda … Slight lean on Yandy Pete Alonso   SECOND BASE Brandon Lowe Jeff McNeil Brendan Donovan   THIRD BASE Junior Caminero Matt Shaw Maikel Garcia   SHORTSTOP Francisco Lindor JP Crawford Trea Turner   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Cody Bellinger Josh Lowe Ian Happ Jordan Walker   OUTFIELD – Tier II Teoscar Hernandez Giancarlo Stanton Seiya Suzuki Jac Caglianone   Josh Lowe – OF – Tampa Bay Rays – Chairman of The Dongers Club Cody Bellinger – OF – Yankees Jac Caglianone – OF – Royals Pete Alonso […]

WEATHER All games play. Sometimes a four game slate doesn’t really get my attention in the middle of the week but we have a great setup of pitching decisions to navigate through today which is making this worth biting off.  Yes, you can pay up for both Skenes and Misorowski if you want too because there’s value hitters all over the place for stacking today. Paul Skenes (DK: $11k) MacKenzie Gore (DK: $8300) Jacob Misorowski (DK: $9500)     Chicago White Sox … While Skenes and Misorowski will garner lots of ownership, so too will Zac Gallen because of his price vs the White Sox.  It’s not just a ‘dumb DFS Bro leverage’ hype up play here, as if we are lucky we get Michael A. Taylor mid week day game homer as well.  Warm weather in Chicago, this game should be 8-7 type final score. Angels … Out to the west coast we go to round out our builds today.  Both sides are favorable for homers, but also both teams have been scuffling at the plate this series.   CATCHER Kyle Teel Logan O’Hoppe   FIRST BASE Pavin Smith Josh Bell Nolan Schanuel   SECOND BASE Ketel Marte Christian Moore   THIRD BASE Miguel Vargas Ke’Bryan Hayes   SHORTSTOP CJ Abrams Geraldo Perdomo Zach Neto … Left early with injury, could sit today   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Mike Trout Mike Tauchman Luis Robert Jr. Lourdes gurriel Jr.     Mike Tauchman – OF – White Sox – Chairman of The Dongers Club Michael A. Taylor – OF – White Sox   TOP BETS Diamondbacks/White Sox OVER 9 Pirates ML Red Sox/Angels OVER 9

Broken down by pricing tiers, Mark Farris outlines his favorite PGA DFS plays on DraftKings

Unless you really live under a rock, you have kinda known about Chase Burns since he was at Wake Forest.  Unless of course you are DraftKings and you don’t even have him in your initial player pool tonight — but they have finally updated it and he is in at $8,000.  He makes the debut for the Reds tonight against the Yankees.  Expect 5+ strikeouts and 3+ homers allowed. WEATHER It’s the end of June.  It’s hot.  All games play. FREDDY PERALTA (DK: $9200, FD: $9600) After the Pirates held on last night I’ll go opposite for sure tonight with the Brewers getting the win & the strength coming from early runs off Heaney and Peralta having a 25%+ K rate against both LHH and RHH. FRAMBER VALDEZ (DK: $9500, FD: $10.1k) Interesting game down in Houston with two kinda similar guys going off against each other.  Either are fine as Ranger Suarez should be good too, but I would much rather not use a lefty vs the Astros at home. LUIS CASTILLO (DK: $8200, FD: $8800) Freddy and Framber are way ahead of Castillo in my book and it’s not worth going up to Crochet in my mind.  If you want a third option, one can always be happy picking on the Twins? BEST WILD CARD OPTION? Chris Paddack is tempting but hard to justify going against the Mariners right now.   BREWERS Chourio, Hoskins, Contreras Heaney can sometimes be good enough to not be in that 7 ER stat line.  His last start was exactly that though & I don’t think he can get enough whiffs even from the Brewers to avoid giving up 5 ER again tonight.  Ball in play, run(s) night for Milwaukee. CUBS Happ, Kelly, Shaw, Swanson Another hot one in St. Louis today.  Road team gets the boost as Mr. McGreevy has enough tape for them to hopefully have a nice scouting report for a 1st inning Happ/Tucker/Suzuki AMBUSH. YANKEES Bellinger, Judge, Chisholm Bellinger is taking the kid deep. ALSO LIKE BRAVES:  Olson, Albies, Riley, Acuna DODGERS:  Something, Something, Dodgers in Coors….  Nothing to see here.     CATCHER Salvador Perez Austin Wells Carson Kelly   FIRST BASE Matt Olson Michael Busch Yandy Diaz   SECOND BASE Ketel Marte Tommy Edman Ozzie Albies   THIRD BASE Weak position tonight.  I would point out that Austin Riley hammered one last night and in a Braves […]

WEATHER It’s only going to be in the mid 60’s in San Diego tonight.  Wimps… Lets check in on our options for pitching tonight … MATTHEW LIBERATORE (DK: $8200, FD: $8500) After a long hot weekend in Chicago both the Cubs & Mariners are going to new cities & my law of averages says they’ll cool off just through the natural let down.  On a night with terrible pitching options I have no hesitation going contrarian as the Cards and Cubs meet for the first time this year.  Just beware of the Seiya Suzuki hot streak now. BAILEY OBER (DK: $7600, FD: $7500) Teased this above.  Yes, going to Ober at home vs the Mariners has less than comforting thoughts associated with it, but I caution you to avoid the trap of Mariners pitchers on the road on the flip side here.  Ober over Woo. BEST WILD CARD OPTION? The Options above aren’t WILD enough for you?  Has to be Chad Patrick vs the Pirates at home.  Although the Pirates usually hit well in Milwaukee since they get into a more favorable hitting environment than PNC. Walker Buehler or Mitchell Parker are okay pivots as well.  Neither is going to dominate.   YANKEES / REDS With the small park and hot temps and the Yanks rolling out Winans this games total has shot up to make it the likely chalky spot tonight & for good reason.  Winans has yet to prove that good minor league stretches have any signs of translating into the bigs.  But it’s the Yanks who are prime to tee off on Lodolo when they make contact.  Goldy always hits well here and so too does Bellinger. NYY:  Goldy, Bellinger, Stanton, LeMahieu … I don’t feel like I need to tout Aaron Judge.  Thanks… CIN:  TJ Friedl, Elly De La Cruz, Gavin Lux, Matt McLain RED SOX Anthony, Abreu, Mayer NATIONALS Wood, Abrams, Garcia, Bell   CATCHER William Contreras Tyler Stephenson Drake Balddwin   FIRST BASE Paul Goldschmidt Matt Olson   SECOND BASE Matt McLain Marcelo Mayer Nolan Gorman   THIRD BASE Austin Riley Gavin Lux Luis Rengifo   SHORTSTOP Elly De La Cruz CJ Abrams Anthony Volpe   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Marcell Ozuna Wilyer Abreu Cody Bellinger Roman Anthony   OUTFIELD – Tier II James Wood Jackson Chourio Oneil Cruz   Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – New York Yankees – Chairman of The Dongers Club Marcell Ozuna – […]