Unlike yesterday we have a VERY typical first round slate today. Fast paced games with cheap guys and potential blowouts elsewhere. Should be a dynamic slate today overall.
7:35 pm: AKRON vs ARIZONA
This is the highest ownership game for sure. Both teams are gonna fly and Akron has a ton of cheap plays that have high usage options.
- AKR: Tavari Johnson, Amani Lyles
- ARIZ: Caleb Love (Sleeper pick for Most Outstanding Player in the Tournament), KJ Lewis
12:40 pm: ROBERT MORRIS vs ALABAMA (OU: 166.5)
I want to believe in Robert Morris, but you need a true big to really beat up Alabama and Alvaro Folgueiras is more of a European big than the type of big.
- RMU: Alvaro Folgueiras, DJ Smith
- BAMA: Mouhamed Dioubate, Clifford Omoruyi
7:10 pm: TROY vs KENTUCKY (OU: 151.5)
This one is a late add for me the more I built lineups today. Troy’s my sleeper/upset pick of the day & they have a great core of value guys that can do enough usage and grade out very well today. Among the ‘elites’ from the SEC it’s Kentucky and Alabama whom I have the least confidence in.
- TROY: Tayton Conerway, Thomas Dowd — or one of the Rigsby’s
- KENTUCKY: Lamont Butler is back and $5600 is a nice price, but Otega Oweh and Koby Brea are the ones I trust the most.
4:05 pm: NORTH CAROLINA vs OLE MISS (OU: 155.5)
This one fits the bill for good tempo and close game to build a core stack around. I don’t like RJ Davis much though.
- UNC: Elliot Cadeau, Drake Powell
- OLE MISS: Malik Dia, Jaemyn Brakefield
Teams & Games to just ignore/avoid ….
- Mississipi State
- Lipscomb/Iowa State
- The Mount/Duke
- Vandy/Saint Marys
- Norfolk State/Florida
- Oklahoma
- Bryant/Michigan State
GUARDS
There’s a ton of value options out there to build around today so finding a core pay up Guard and Forward to build around should be our priority today.
- Caleb Love – Arizona – $8500: I think Arizona has a potential to sneak through the tournament if Love shines and plays like the most outstanding player. If this game is fast as we expect then he’s a 50+ fantasy point waiting to explode.
- Solo Ball – UCONN – $6100
- KJ Lewis – Arizona – $6400
- Nique Clifford – Colorado State – $9000 … Would be #2 behind Love in my mind but Memphis is gonna smack them.
- Josh Omojafo – Robert Morris – $5800
- Elliot Cadeau – UNC – $5800
- DJ Smith – Robert Morris – $5500
FORWARDS
Honorable mention for Nelly Junior Joseph & Derik Queen. Memphis is a top 10 team in the country but just is without a star player, so the other stars are going to step up and that means Dain Dainja just dominating the glass.
- Dain Dainja – Memphis – $8800
- Alvaro Folgueiras – Robert Morris – $7800
- Malik Dia – Ole Miss – $6400
- Thomas Dowd – Troy – $6200
- Mouhamed Dioubate – Alabama – $5600 … Both he and Clifford Omoryui are viable Alabama options.
VALUE PLAYS
- All the Akron Guys: Tavari Johnson – Akron – $4600, Amani Lyles – Akron – $4000
- Jeremy Roach – Baylor – $4000 (G)
ONIONS! CORE PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Tavari Johnson
- Amani Lyles
- Caleb Love
BETTING CARD
Listed in order of tip times …
Early Window
- Baylor ML: This is a really tough game out the gate today to pick a side on. Teams with heavy transfer rosters just haven’t clicked once again but I lean on Baylor none the less because Jeremy Roach is a big game player and he’s gonna get a chance to face Duke in the second round with a win here today.
- Alabama 1H -12.5: You need bigs to beat Alabama, RMU just doesn’t have that. As much as I am not sold on this years version of Alabama, I can’t see Nate Oats letting his team choke in the first round.
- Lipscomb/Iowa State UNDER 143.5
- Memphis ML
Afternoon Window
- Mount Saint Marys +32.5
- Saint Marys -4.5
- North Carolina ML
- Maryland 1st Half -5.5: The 10 point spread for full game is tempting, but I trust Grand Canyon to be competitive. Maryland overall too good though.
Evening Window
- Florida -28.5
- Troy +11.5 / Troy ML
- Marquette -3.5 … Also lean under in SGP. Marquette wins with a low scoring game. NM wins with a high scoring game.
- Akron/Arizona OVER 167.5
Late Night Window
- UCONN -5.5
- Illinois -3.5 & UNDER 160.5
- Bryant/Michigan State UNDER 152.5
- Liberty +6.5
Parlay Of The Day
- Lipscomb/Iowa State UNDER 143.5
- Memphis ML
- North Carolina ML
- Troy +11.5