Twenty years ago I was in the building when the Superdome reopened on a Monday night against these same Falcons. It is still the greatest event I have ever seen in person. It wasn’t that it was the best football game (that was the Saints and Vikings in the NFC Championship), but the sound of Steve Gleason’s hand blocking that punt was as loud as the roar that came after it and in reality the game was over at that moment. You can’t recreate that night. You can take the Saints again, a team that has come back to life as a football team, and fade the 28-3 Falcons.
It isn’t only nostalgia. New Orleans has scored 81 points in three games at 0.163 EPA per play, and its 1-2 record is a one-point loss to Detroit and a shootout loss in Las Vegas. Atlanta is at -0.051 EPA per play and has already put a 3 on the scoreboard this season, just in the wrong column, in a 34-3 loss to Carolina. The public is pricing the Falcons off one good night against Green Bay, and the line has drifted from Saints -2.5 to -1.5.
- Volume belongs to New Orleans: our simulation has the Saints running 67.8 plays to Atlanta’s 58.2. As an analyst note here though, I think you’ll see Atlanta have more success with big plays than they will trying to slowly march down the field. Atlanta will pile up some yards, but you should never trust a left-handed quarterback, and we do not trust Michael Penix Jr.
- The Falcons’ chalk is a bad bet: Bijan Robinson is the most expensive player on the slate and 46.2% owned, and his touchdown price is the most overpriced lead-back number on the board. This is a classic over-reaction to the beat-down they put on a bad Packers team in their ‘get right’ spot.
Model vs. market: anytime touchdowns
| Player | Best price | Market | Model | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan RobinsonATL · RB | -193 | 65.9% | 56.2% | 0.85 |
| Drake LondonATL · WR | +135 | 42.6% | 23.7% | 0.56 |
| Chris OlaveNO · WR | +130 | 43.5% | 27.6% | 0.63 |
| Juwan JohnsonNO · TE | +260 | 27.8% | 24.0% | 0.86 |
| Alvin KamaraNO · RB | +135 | 42.6% | 46.4% | 1.09 |
Kamara is the only lead back the model fully supports: with the Saints’ starting back on injured reserve, we have him at 13 carries and 0.54 rushing touchdowns. Bijan’s -193 asks for a 65.9% chance to score and our projection gets to 56.2%, which is reason enough not to pay $11,800 for 46% ownership.
Injury to monitor: Delp or Brown
If Noah Fant doesn’t go for New Orleans (abdomen, limited all week), look for Oscar Delp to get more run. He is a dirt-cheap value as their second tight end in an offense leaning on the tight end because of other injuries. The other player returning tonight for New Orleans is Barion Brown, who makes his season debut in the Superdome as a receiver and on kick and punt returns, where a return touchdown counts on DraftKings. From the person who brought you Rashid Shaheed, I say, you are welcome in advance.
One of the two is in play tonight for sure. Check the inactives about 90 minutes before kickoff: Fant out means Delp, Fant active means Brown.
See the full showdown analysis. Captain board, every prop against our projection, the optimizer and exposure.
Captain and build
Olave is the captain. His simulated 90th percentile is 33.8 DK points, he is owned at 10.7%, and he is the receiver most likely to beat a Falcons secondary missing its top cornerback. Shough, Kamara and Johnson go in the flex, so we take the Saints chalk at 1x while most of the field has it at 1.5x. No Bijan, no Falcons: that is the fade.
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The bets
- Saints -1.5, -110 (BetMGM, Fanatics). The side, a point cheaper than the open. A 0.163 EPA-per-play offense at home is priced as Atlanta’s equal. We prefer it to the moneyline at -125.
- Alvin Kamara anytime TD, +135 (BetMGM; +130 at DraftKings). The one lead-back price the model clears, 46.4% against 42.6%. A Saints win means Saints goal-line carries.
- Under 47.5, -105 (DraftKings). The total has climbed two points since the open, but our simulation has the over at 48.3%. Keep it small.
Method: model touchdown probability = 1 − e−λ, where λ is projected rushing plus receiving touchdowns. Scores, cover and total probabilities come from a 20,000-run simulation built on our play-by-play around the Vegas team totals. Lines move, so check your book before the 8:15 ET kickoff.