To date this is the largest College Basketball slate of the year on DraftKings and although there is a NFL Saturday coming up I am optimistic that we are into the prime window for CBB DFS right now in terms of prize pools.

[spacer height=”20px”]

I do not think this is a slate where you are locking in a 4 man stack in a game, although I do mention up to 4 (or 5) players from a couple games I would still try to limit this to a 3-3-2 or 3-2-2-1 type slate at most.  There’s just too many good spots and a decent job on pricing for us to lock in on one game.

[spacer height=”20px”]

Miami vs Florida State

The Hurricanes are coming off their best game of the season after an ugly performance prior to that.  They upset Duke in Cameron Indoor over the weekend and are back in the state of Florida to likely get whooped by a stout Florida State team who defends well.  But the prices on this game is what makes it attractive and I expect FSU to generate some turnovers and get plenty of rebounds in this game.

• G – Anthony Polite – FSU – FSU – 6600
• F – Malik Osborne – FSU – 6900
• G/F – Matthew Cleveland – FSU – 4600
• G – Charlie Moore – Miami – 6800
• G/F – Jordan Miller – Miami –  6600

[spacer height=”20px”]

Illinois vs Nebraska

The big question on this game isnt the Illinois production, we know that will come from Kofi, Plummer and Frazier mostly.  It’s the Nebraska side because Bryce McGowens should thrive vs Illinois, he plays 80% of the minutes and is second in usage behind Alonzo Verge.  But he will need a good shooting night to really have a ceiling since he doesn’t do a ton in the other categories right now.  Maybe tonight will be that ceiling game.

• G – Alfonso Plummer – 6500
• F – Kofi Cockburn – 9600
• G/F – Bryce McGowerns – 6800

[spacer height=”20px”]

Auburn vs Alabama

Whenever these two meet up we have a track meet.  They’re both among the faster and more efficient offenses in the country and are priced appropriately today.  That said the CORE plays here are both value options.

• F – Jabari Smith – Auburn – 8300
• G – KD Johnson – Auburn – 4900
• G – Jaden Shackelford – Alabama – 7500
• G – JD Davison – Alabama – 4500

[spacer height=”20px”]

Under the radar games:

• Ole Miss vs Texas A&M
  • Miss – Brooks, Ruffin
  • TA&M – Williams
• Oklahoma State vs West Virginia
  • OkSt – Likekele, Anderson
  • WV – Sherman, McNeil

High End – $7,000 and up

Kofi Cockburn – F – Illinois – 9600

I am very often in the camp of dont pay above 9k for players on larger slates.  But I have to mention the obvious with regards to the machine that is Kofi and that is he should be dominating the Big 10 this year with his physical presence on the interior and right now he is.  There is nobody on Nebraska that should keep him off the boards and limit him from getting 15 rebounds tonight and with such a high chance of getting offensive rebounds and easy put backs he should find his way to a 40+ point outing today easier than anyone else.  Yeah it’s a road game and yeah it’s a big man and yeah he could find himself in foul trouble … But don’t come a crying when he finishes with 50+

Next best:

• Timmy Allen – F – Texas – 7400
• Isaiah Wong – G – Miami – 7400
• Justin Lewis – F – Marquette – 9200
• Taz Sherman – G – WVU – 7600
• Ryan Kalkbrenner – F – Creighton – 7600 … My model does not like him and he is very shot making and rebound dependent plus is coming off his worst game of the season.  All that said, Providence has oddly been weak against centers all season.

FADE:  Freeman-Liberty

[spacer height=”20px”]

Mid Range – $5,500 to $6,900

Anthony Polite – G/F – Florida State – 6600

Polite rebounds more than teammate Caleb Mills who is $100 more, so that is the edge here but they are both very close in overall projections and ceiling upside.   Nobody in this tier stands out as a dominant play today, but as always this is the tier that more often then not is what wins your tournaments in College Basketball DFS.  So invest in guys here who are in higher tempo games as much as possible for that GPP winner.

Next best:

• Daeshun Ruffin – G – Ole Miss – 5500 … Price has not moved up with the usage which has been over 40% of late.   He is one of a few good plays in the 5k-6k range.
• Jordan Miller – G/F – Miami – 6200
• Charlie Moore – G – Miami – 6800
• Alex O’Connell – G/F – Creighton – 5600
• Alfonso Plummer – Illinois – G – 6500 … If Kofi is not going to go off then Plummer and Trent Frazier are going to do all the scoring for Illinois.  The Cornhuskers allow a 46% 3pt rate to opponents and the Illinois offense is either feed the beast or drain the 3’s.  Plummer and Frazier are both in that mid range tonight in pricing and both should take 6+ three’s today.

[spacer height=”20px”]

Value – Below $5,500

Olivier-Maxence Prosper – G/F – Marquette – 3800

Likely a very popular value play tonight and for good reason.  The minutes (over 30) should be there for him as he has gained trust and we have a matchup where the tempo is ideal and being at home as a value play he should have no problem hitting value.

KD Johnson – G – Auburn – 4900

We gotta have some exposure in this game in my mind and there are two favorable sub 5k players who are playing well/more of late that should contribute.  KD Johnson has one of the higher steal rates on this slate and will see enough minutes at this price in a good tempo game to likely get over 20 fantasy points and return solid value.  I am looking to pair him with JD Davison in this same game for two value plays.

Next best:

• JD Davison – G – Alabama – 4500
• Matthew Cleveland – G/F – Florida State – 4600
• Jared Bynum – G – Providence – 5100
• Matthew Murrell – G – Ole Miss – 3800

[spacer height=”20px”]

I’ll give a few plays here today of guys who caught my interest the most as players who can go for 6x tonight and won’t be 30% owned….

[spacer height=”20px”]

Alfonso Plummer – Illinois – G – 6500

Probably 15-20% owned

If Kofi is not going to go off then Plummer and Trent Frazier are going to do all the scoring for Illinois.  The Cornhuskers allow a 46% 3pt rate to opponents and the Illinois offense is either feed the beast or drain the 3’s.  Plummer and Frazier are both in that mid range tonight in pricing and both should take 6+ three’s today.

[spacer height=”20px”]

Taz Sherman – West Virginia – G – 7600

Probably 5-10% owned

Oklahoma State is coming in off their big home game vs Texas on the weekend and WVU Guard Taz Sherman is playing his second game after being out with COVID-19 protocols.  I like West Virginia to control this game but Oklahoma State is no push over, so we should get a full minutes load from Sherman tonight which could push him back into the 6x category.

[spacer height=”20px”]

CORE  BUILDS

Option A:  Lock in on Kofi with 3 value (sub 5k) players

A:  Kofi, Ruffin, Prosper (Value), K.Johnson (Value), Davison (Value)

[spacer height=”20px”]

Option B:  Fade Kofi and go balanced with just 1 value (Prosper)

B:  Plummer, Polite, Miller, Prosper

You can get a high upside lineup that has Prosper and nothing but 6k-7k plays today that really only needs Kofi to not go above 35 fpts to have a shot.  This doesn’t build a nice 3-3-2 construct and is more of a cash lineup play, but it should hit the 240 fpts mark.

[spacer height=”20px”]

TOP BETS

Kentucky/Vanderbilt UNDER 144

Nebraska +13

Oklahoma +6.5

Alabama -3

Providence/Creighton OVER 133.5

[spacer height=”20px”]