We are now into CBB DFS content season here at DailyAmbush! This is mostly driven by when CFB winds down and we will aim to have CBB articles for the Saturday main slates as well as some weekday overviews where applicable (usually Tue/Wed nights as the bigger ones).
For some reason DraftKings did not opt to make today a big kick off for the College Hoops DFS season. There is no CFB main slate today, no NFL going on, no afternoon hockey or NBA hoops. What’s the deal with that??
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COLLEGE HOOPS TIPS & TRICKS
There are three things that make CBB Hoops a sport you can apply a stack style build to your lineups.
The pace differences are bigger than in NBA: If you play NBA you know that pace is a factor, but it’s generally not the all being factor. Well in College Hoops the difference in pace can be much larger given the shot clock being longer and the talent levels/styles of teams being far more drastic. So we definitely want to focus on a high pace game and prefer ones where both teams play up at a higher pace.
Limited Bench: Another major difference between College and NBA? The NBA has set rotations on a nightly basis and a lot of times 8-9 guys are going to see enough minutes to draw down usage. Not always the case in CBB as many teams will usually just have 6 or 7 core guys who get the minutes.
Focused Usage: Because teams aren’t as deep here, we get focused usage generally on 1-3 players per team, which makes it easier to just grab the top plays in a given game and go from there.
My favorite build methods
I apply a 3-2-2-1 or 3-3-2 build style to most of my lineups. That might ring a bell if you play MLB DFS and generally do a balanced stack approach, and it’s kind of the same thing here. I want to focus my exposure on a couple of games and then fill in with the best one off value or one off stud outside of those 2 core games I want to focus on per lineup.
Narratives
With fans back in the stadiums this year we have home teams pulling off big game upsets more often, as was exhibit A with Rutgers on Monday night. Most of these upsets are going to occur on weeknights during in conference games and not on the weekend games as much.
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THE AMBUSH MODEL
This should be very straight forward but the most important columns of data that I reference are Ratings, Projections, Pt/$ and Onions.
- Ratings = A custom rating that I generate to rank the players beyond just their projection but also taking into account their DK price, home/road splits, the opponent rating, recent performance and other variables.
- Projection = Raw projected points. Mostly this is going to be weighed based on the players usage, the game total and the opponent rank
- PT/$ = The value the player is projected to find. Look for anyone over 5x for your cheaper value plays
- Onions = This is the ‘secret sauce’ if you will and this builds up more as the season moves along with more data. Try to look for a player who is underowned that has a high onions score and generally is a good player. This is looking essentially for a player who has the ability to far out perform his projection. It comes from Bill Raftery’s catch phrase “ONIONS!” when someone hits a big shot.
A couple hidden nuggets on the model
- Click on the TEAM column when looking at the player rankings and it will filter out anyone not in that game. A good way to help with game stacks.
- Click on the team matchups at the top to see H2H details for both teams.
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Some things are still in beta and there are a few data issues with some players that I am working out, however if there are any questions along the way just hop into the Discord and tag me and we can walk through this together. Hope to build the best product possible for everyone! Now lets get onto today’s slate.
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Game Breakdown
- UCLA vs Marquette – This game has been moved to a later start time, and no word on if DraftKings is removing it from the slate or not.
Games to Target
Arkansas vs Oklahoma
I wish these two were meeting later in the season as part of their new annual series, but it’s always a nice game in my mind. Arkansas plays fast and Oklahoma typically is willing to play up tempo when facing a faster opponent like this.
Razorbacks
- JD Notae – $5700 – This is a really good price on JD Notae ($5700) who even in a pace down game should still generate enough peripheral stats (18.2% Assist Rate, 4.8% Steal Rate)
- AuDiese Toney – $5400 – Will play 75% of minutes and is just a m ore effective player than Stanley Umude or Connor Vanover despite a lower usage. He should be active on the boards.
Sooners
- Elijah Harkless – $6800 – Harkless is the primary returning player on this team who should benefit the most with a pace up game. We don’t want him as a stand alone one off play but in a 3 man game stack he has 4x potential
- Umoja Gibson – $5300 – Shooters are better at home and Gibson averages 6+ 3 point attempts per game. The Razorbacks allow a near 50% 3Par so he should take a high amount of those today and if they are clicking he’ll smash his 5.3k price tag
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Syracuse vs Georgetown
An old rivalry renewed here, this game takes me back to when I was a kid playing Rec and Travel basketball in the mean streets of Alexandria, VA droppin dimes, flashing my post moves and working the officials as a young buck on a Saturday morning and then coming home to watch John Thompson and Jim Boheim yell at each other. But those days are gone, I am old now and they are de… Wait… Boehim is obviously still around and holy fuck how old must that guy feel when he hears that I am writing DFS content about his shitty teams now? Granted, he does have two of his kids on his team and of course they’re getting all the minutes. Anyways… We attack the ‘Cuse with someone who can use the high post against their high and wide 2-3 zone and only target 3 point shooters against Syracuse when they are the secondary options (meaning not the primary ball handler)
Orange
- Buddy Boeheim – $7400 – Two extremely tough games for Buddy but throw out the game vs Villanova as that was a tough defensive draw for him. He should tear up Georgetown today.
- Joseph Girard III – $6200 – Girard is one of the more consistent plays for Syracuse and someone I expect to have another good game here. He will have the ball in his hands a ton and that’s a favorable draw vs Georgetown
- Cole Swider – $5700 – I prefer the guards above, but Swider and or Jesse Edwards are fine 2nd options in a game stack. They should each have a good rebounding game but beware of bigs on the road getting in foul trouble here.
Hoyas
Everyone on Georgetown is all priced too low.
- Dante Harris – $5900 – Top overall play on the model, he has 28 or more points in each of his last five games and and will lead the way with his 32% assist rate.
- Kaiden Rice – $4100 – Shoots a ton of 3’s, is near min price here and is value that is impossible to overlook today.
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Nebraska vs Auburn
This game is starting at 11:30 AM, which is a major red flag for a football game but in college hoops the earlier start isn’t as drastic of an impact in my mind on the players.
Huskers
- Bryce McGowens – $5900
- Alonzo Verge – $7500
Tigers
- KD Johnson – $6800 – Jabari Smith is too expensive to consider in a game stack scenario unless he is the only player on Auburn you use and this game likely leans towards the under, so take the cheaper but just as effective KD Johnson
- Jaylin Williams – $5000 – Should avoid foul trouble at home and see a minutes boost.
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POSITIONAL NOTES
I always break down the players into three pricing tiers. 7k and up is the High range, 5500 to 6900 is the mid range and 5.4k and below is the value/low end range. Anyone who is 8k and above has to be in a dominant spot or on a slate with limited scoring on it. Generally if you can find a balanced lineup in the mid range with 1 or 2 value plays and one high end play you will have the most success. Going stars and scrubs in College Basketball is a MME build only in my mind on these larger slates, there’s just no need for all that risk.
For today the Guard depth is much deeper than Forward position today, you will likely end up with 5 guards in your lineup and most of them will come from the mid range 5.5k to 6.9k on DraftKings. Below are my top two plays based on each tier
Guard $$$: Buddy Boeheim, Alonzo Verge
Guard $$: Dante Harris, JD Notae, Joseph Girard
Guard $: AuDiese Toney, Umoja Gibson
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Forward $$$: None
Forward $$: Cole Swider, Isaiah Whaley
Forward $: Kaiden Rice, Jesse Edwards
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FAVORITE CORE
Dante Harris – Georgetown
Joseph Girard – Syracuse
JD Notae – Arkansas
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TOP VALUE
Kaiden Rice – Georgetown
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ONIONS! – Contrarian Plays
Isaiah Whaley – UCONN: Forward is very thin today and UCONN vs St. Bonnies is going to look like a defensive slug fest to some but the Huskies are still playing thin up front and with a defensive game, we can take the home teams best offensive rebounder in my mind to have a solid double double game at a very weak/thin position. If you want a lot more value, consider Akok Akok here too but Whaley is the much better scoring threat.
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GAME BETS
- Arkansas / Oklahoma OVER 143.5
- Wisconsin / Ohio State UNDER 135.5
- Clemson ML
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