Broken down by pricing tiers, Mark Farris outlines his favorite PGA DFS plays on DraftKings

I am back and so too is Walker Buehler as he makes his Dodgers season debut tonight and first appearance in the Majors since 2022.  The main slate tonight doesn’t lock until 7:40 because God forbid that we include the three early games starting at 6:10, 6:40 and 6:40 on the Main slate as well.  This means you miss out on Tigers/Guardians, Angels/Pirates and White Sox/Rays.  You know what.  Thank you DraftKings and FanDuel.  If you are playing with those teams or even watching those games then I am truly sorry. WEATHER Milwaukee at Kansas City:  Not ideal here as lots of storms are coming through while Cole Ragans takes the mound.  This definitely could be a delay-start-delay-start-finish type scenario. Update – They have moved the start time up to 6:10 on this game.  But I haven’t seen anything from DraftKings yet as to what they are doing with the game on the slate.  IF they move the slate up, I would be shocked, but we would want to take Ragans   LUIS CASTILLO (DK: $9600, FD: $10200) I can’t find a legit sales pitch to you on not playing Castillo today.  The Twins win streak has ended & they’re not destroying Castillo tonight to avoid using him.  This series SHOULD have some homers in it though and there will be one from a Twins lefty off Castillo tonight, likely early from Kiriloff.  There will also be a 7 strikeout finishing number for Castillo today. ANDREW HEANEY (DK: $6600, FD: $7700) Yes, Oakland is winning games and just had a WILD series with the Marlins.  This is a divisional spot, I trust the pitching battery on the Rangers side to handle things and a night Oakland Coliseum game is favorable for the pitching to not get murdered. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS Cole Ragans is without a doubt the top option today but weather is going to be a huge risk.  If the game starts in a delay then we are hoping they see a clear window to let him go out and pitch and in that scenario I trust it, if not then I would avoid.  DFS players are smart enough and most risk adverse by default (despite blowing their money on shitty teams) so I don’t think he is heavy chalk if they start in a delay.  The other nice thing is that it’s the first game on the slate, […]

I got some time to dig into the Saturday slate of games today and boy its ugly.  The Early slate on DraftKings has four games which have bad weather potential in them and a lack of general offense it looks like. WEATHER A few ugly spots to monitor… Sox/Cardinals Jays/Nationals Rockies/Pirates Marlins/Athletics   PABLO LOPEZ LANCE LYNN CASEY MIZE I would avoid Jared Jones.  Velocity was down last start and if that rain lingers he could have a very short start.   BREWERS / CUBS By far this is the best spot to attack today.  I would back the Cubs to win, but stack both teams for DFS   CATCHER Willson Contreras William Contreras   FIRST BASE Rhys Hoskins Paul Goldschmidt   SECOND BASE Nico Hoerner Nolan Gorman   THIRD BASE Ryan McMahon Christopher Morel   SHORTSTOP Willy Adames Dansby Swanson   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Riley Greene Aaron Judge Mike Tacuhman Sal Frelick   RHYS HOSKINS – 1B – BREWERS – CHAIRMAN OF THE DONGERS CLUB Aaron Judge – OF – Yankees Willy Adames – SS – Brewers Nico Hoerner – 2B – Cubs   TOP BETS Brewers/Cubs OVER 8 Tigers/Yankees UNDER 7.5 Cardinals + Cubs ML Parlay

WEATHER All clear, roofs should be closed for the Astros and Rangers home games tonight.   Unlike the early slate, I see distinct pay up teams that I am backing tonight and so you can take a gamble on a second cheap pitcher on DraftKings today because while these three are the best options, they aren’t dominant options. Corbin Burnes (DK: $9400, FD: $10,600) …  Do not panic if/when Burnes gives up 1 or 2 ER in the first inning.  He will do what he does and settle down on his way to 6 full innings and 7 strikeouts. Shota Imanaga (DK: $9800, FD: $10,300) … The one Asian transfer to America pitcher that I have really liked.  The Mets do not strike-out much vs LHP though and so our ceiling is pretty limited due to that and him not being a 100+ pitch guy. Kutter Crawford (DK: $8600, FD: $9700) … Here’s a list of the Giants bats I trust after they F****D us last night…  End of list.  We need whiffs here, because when Crawford does get hit the ball manages to find grass.  His K prop as of this morning is 5.5, so double down on the over there. Other Pitching Thoughts For cheap options I would rather take a gamble on Dakota Hudson, who has legit big league experience than second start Roddery Munoz given that Munoz was pretty lucky IMO in his spot start in a double header on April 20th. Andrew Heaney….  Eh…  Sure, fine.  I get it.   ASTROS Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez Looks like Altuve and the rest of the Astros got some good stuff when they were down in Mexico (if you know what I mean).  Hey, serious question here.  Does Altuve go to a Pediatrician when he is sick?  I mean, he cannot take the adult dosage for medicine right, it would most certainly kill him?  Do midgets get the same dosage as the rest of us?  How exactly does that work?  Oh, and they’re facing a dead arm guy who might be thinking his arm isn’t dead after two nice starts.  Houston is going to destroy McKenzie and then stop scoring and blow the game in the bullpen when Jose Ramirez hits a grand slam to make it 7-6 Cleveland… RANGERS Corey Seager, Nathaniel Lowe, Evan Carter I am not sure how Corey Seager does not hit […]

FanDuel has decided to focus more on protesting something, something about Palestine or whatever.  Is that the Rays new corner infielder who is going to be called up for a Brawl re-match with the Brewers today?  I dunno, either way, there is no FanDuel early slate worth playing, so sorry for ya’ll.   WEATHER All games play, no word on if the Bee’s are going to infect any stadiums today.   ZACH EFLIN (DK: $8500) or ZACK WHEELER (DK: $11,000) … All lineups today should have either a Zach or a Zack in them.  These two front line guys are easily the best options to anchor pitching, and the key decision is obviously paying the extra $2500 on Wheeler.  I think there’s enough concern with a day game in Anaheim for us to just go Eflin as the main option but I don’t hate Wheeler at all and expect him to do Wheeler type things (24 fpts) ROSS STRIPLING (DK: $6200) … Pirates’ bats, silent, Can’t score runs, despair sets in, Sadness fills the stands. JOE MUSGROVE (DK: $7500)  … Eventually he has to put something quality together, Cincinnati has power but also gives him maybe the best K% upside he has seen all season long.  I feel WAY much better about Eflin & Stripling as a combination than going down to cup of Joe, but the price is very tempting if you have extra room — which given the bats I like, you should. Other Pitching Notes Ton of RHB expected for Seattle against Sale, who is a little priced in no mans land between the two Zachk’s…   TWINS Carlos Correa, Alex Kiriloff, Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach Beating up on bad teams like only the Twins can do and now they’ll get to give Chris Flexen one of those Flexen deez Nuts starts. ATHLETICS Lawrence Butler, JJ Bleday, Brent Rooker How do we not love the cindarella story of Oakland being competitive in their final season here?  A big deal is their bullpen but the cheap bats in DFS find a way to get it done on a nightly basis it seems and I’ve seen enough of Quinn Priester to know he needs to spend more time in confession. PADRES Fernando Tatis, Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts Cronenworth is swinging a good bat right now, hard to ignore him with big game potential coming.   CATCHER William Contreras […]

Broken down by pricing tiers, Mark Farris outlines his favorite PGA DFS plays on DraftKings

Closer to what we should have generally with a 12 game Tuesday night slate.  This is due to there being two Turbo Games and a double header between the Cardinals/Tigers which is ignored entirely for MAIN slate purposes (thankfully). From a timing perspective the slate is awesome with five games at 7pm, two at 8pm and then the rest on the West coast late night.  It sets up glorious for a late night tilt lineup scenario as well. WEATHER No issues, roof open again in Arizona & probably open in Texas   MITCH KELLER (DK: $8800, FD: $9000) … Keller is a good enough pitcher that when facing a team who has no intel on him he should be able to get swings early to avoid walks.  His last start was a strenuous one against the Brewers who know him well, but in that spot he also had a very low 13% ground ball rate and I doubt that carries over tonight. LUIS CASTILLO (DK: $8600, FD: $9700) … Huh?  What are we missing here?  Is this a trap spot with the pricing given that Atlanta is in one of their swing and miss at everything modes?  For all the blind people who assumed Acuna was 1.1 this year, how is that strikeout regression off an insanely low 2023 number going?  Until Acuna/Albies do turn it on, we attack Atlanta.  And yeah, I believe they’ll turn it on soon enough but you simply cannot start your DFS slate tonight without deciding to use Castillo or not. FREDDY PERALTA (DK: 10k, FD: $10.4k) … The one glimmer of hope for the Rays is that they’re not the best team to just come out and fire fastballs against all game long.  This team still thinks they can win by trying to out homer everyone even with dead baseballs back in play and maybe Arozarena runs into a long fly ball out to center field and maybe Isaac Paredes does get one out down the left field line.  Where the maybe ends is with Peralta giving you a 6 inning, 7 strikeout, 2 ER floor and that’s very solid tonight.   Other Pitching Notes Sean Manaea has absolutely ZERO upside.  It’s like if Martin Perez and Dallas Keuchel had a kid together. Ragans vs Berrios could be the spot with the sneaky upside scenario but it’s also a one week turn around re-match […]

Nine (9) game MAIN slate tonight with some interesting match-ups as we get those “everyone is gonna play everyone” series.  Yes, that includes the Pirates of Pittsburgh traveling to Oakland to face the Athletics and if you think attendance could be low for that one, the Marlins are next to visit Oakland later this week. WEATHER Chase Field Roof is OPEN   MAX FRIED (DK: $8700, FD: $7800) … We pointed out that the Fried run was going to start last time out and he should be a 10k pitcher very soon.  He delivered a solid 34.45 DK FPTS that time and remains under priced in a pitcher friendly SafeCo (T-Mobile) park.  Fried is a California boy who has always performed well in the Pacific Time Zone as well, back him with confidence tonight. BAILEY FALTER (DK: $6700, FD: $8800) … And just like that, the Oakland Athletics little offensive outburst is over as they return back to their cold, empty and massive stadium.  Great news for Falter, who is not a great pitcher but with the Pirates is starting to round into a viable option this year and has the best SO prop upside on this slate using our new Dashboard K Rating metric. Other Pitching Notes The two arms above are head and shoulders above everyone else tonight.  While, Joe Ryan, is going to once again face the White Sox, I can’t see him blowing past the two lefties above to use him for five figures on both DK/FD.  This doesn’t mean he won’t eclipse 20 on DK though, so he is fine to use and would be considered #3. The Royals have promoted RHP Jonathan Bowlan, who is a slightly tall guy at 6’6 and is not to be trusted beyond 5 IP if he is lucky.  This doesn’t mean he will get blown up, but that second time through the order the Jays will get men on base and knock him out.   ROYALS Pasquantino, Garcia, Perez, Witt, Velasquez Happy Italian Chairman Monday!  Unfortunately for the Royals they are not going to get another shot at Kikuchi in Toronto for this series.  That really is a bummer for Hunter Renfroe who has absolutely raked in Toronto, but likely sits today vs the RHP after Melendez was out yesterday.  This is the worst SP KC will face in the series (although Bassitt is someone they should hit on […]

Nine game MAIN slate for this fine Sunday with Five (5) afternoon games and then the showdown featuring the Cubs and Red Sox, which to me feels like the easiest under bet in the universe after two touchdown scoring type games. WEATHER It’s about to get hot everywhere.  All games play without weather issues.   If you took a picture of all the starting pitchers that I just do not get very excited about, this would be the collection.  We’ll call this Spencer Rattler day if you know what I mean.  Are they horrible?  No.  Do you want to use any of them?  Absolutely not. Your expected chalk today will be Tarik Skubal ($10,000 on DK, $10,900 on FanDuel), as he draws the Royals who are NOT striking out at all right now but again talent drawfs trends in this scenario.  Put Skubal down for a nice even 6 strikeouts over 6 innings.  Solid, not awesome. The other likely popular picks are going to come from ZACK LITTELL (DK: $8700, FD: $8900) and ERICK FEDDE (DK: $7500, FD: $8300) … These two knuckleheads will face off against their respective lineups of knuckleheads.  It is worth noting that Fedde’s best starts have come with Martin Maldonado catching him and I expect Martin to sit today, but if he is in then sure, roll Fedde.  I have nothing to justify excitement for using either guy here but both will be just alright. My Sunday Sleeper MICHAEL WACHA (DK: $8700, FD: $8800) … Congrats to the Tigers for luring in the most fans they will have all season due to the NFL Draft folks realizing that they should do something more productive with their Saturday and go watch a fun Baseball game.  Today they’ll get shut down by Mr. Day game Michael Wacha as he brings his mighty fine reverse splits into Comerica Park to induce a bunch of fly ball outs that just die in the large outfield there.  I just hope the Mark Canha first AB fly ball to right center field stays in the park. Overall Pitching Rankings Sometimes in DFS we just look at it and realize that there is no point in over thinking or over stressing the situation.  It’s a boring slate, so such is life.  These are my recommended arms to use today. Michael Wacha (DK: $8700) Zack Littell (DK: $8700, FD: $8900) Marcus Stroman (DK: $9600, FD: $9500) […]

WEATHER All clear tonight   JORDAN HICKS (DK: $7700, FD: $8600) … I am banking on the Pirates bats staying quiet for one more game, along with Hicks continuing to pitch well as a starter, which to be honest is something I really expect all year long now that he is with a somewhat competent organization. GEORGE KIRBY (DK: $8200, FD: $8700) … Kirby over Cease by a slight margin but I wouldn’t think you are crazy for using Cease vs Philly either. AARON CIVALE (DK: $9100, FD: $10.1k) … Wow, the White Sox actually won a game.  Two in a row?  No chance, Lance.  The Rays should be able to get to the Sox and give Civale the lead here after he starts off with 5 clean innings before giving up anything. Other Pitching Notes Cease and Suarez are okay, don’t see them beating out Hicks/Kirby/Civale.   Kinda a clear cut night for me.  Roll out some 3-2 combination stacks with one offs and move along.  The Braves are probably gonna get touted up due to limited options, however, Matt Olson is the main guy I want and Bibee should pitch well. ANGELS (Trout, Schanuel, Moniak) … It’s mostly Trout.  Okay, it’s all Trout.  The LHB are very price friendly. YANKEES (Stanton, Rizzo) … Giancarlo with a nice PH double last night, gotta ride him here as he could maybe get into a groove. RAYS (J.Lowe, Arozarena, Diaz) MARINERS (Polanco, France)   CATCHER Gary Sanchez did look kinda determined to destroy the Yankees in his AB last night, but if Contreras is in here we want him by a mile. William Contreras Bo Naylor Gabriel Moreno   FIRST BASE Olson hasn’t had that HUGE game yet this season, he really should be around $5k not nearly $6k, but the talent is too good and too likely to explode here soon. Matt Olson Nolan Schanuel Ty France   SECOND BASE Jorge Polanco Amed Rosario Xander Bogaerts   THIRD BASE Manny Machado Alec Bohm Isaac Paredes   SHORTSTOP Willy Adames Anthony Volpe   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore There is where all the marbles are tonight…. Mike Trout Josh Lowe Giancarlo Stanton Michael Harris II   Mike Trout – OF – LA Angels – Mr. Saturday Night & Chairman of the Dongers Club Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Yankees Josh Lowe – OF – Rays Willy Adames – SS – Brewers Alec […]