A little bummed at the configuration on DraftKings today as they have decided to omit the 2PM/3PM window of games from their Saturday afternoon large slate.  So there is the 2PM “Early” slate, then 4PM “Afternoon” slate and then a 7PM “Main” Slate. No promises on the 7PM article tonight, but I’ll try. For the 3 “Early” games which are on the FanDuel Slate: OAK @ MIN:  Under – Ober deals. STL @ CHC:  Cubs + Over – Morel homers CLE @ TOR:  Over – Naylor homers   WEATHER All games play TB at ATL:  Temps approaching 100 degrees.   JUSTIN VERLANDER (DK: $9900) & JACK FLAHERTY (DK: 8900) Here’s a little story about Jack and Justin.  Two pitchers, doing the best they can.  Flaherty vs Verlander in a game stack is your primary route today, both can deliver 5-6 IP, 5-6 strikeouts and should have limited damage on both sides.  With a ceiling of who can go off on pitching, that’s very smart in my mind to take both and go ahead. KEATON WINN (DK: $5800) No reason to go middle of the road if pivoting off JV or Jack.  So go down to Keaton Winn, who hasn’t been good, but the Angels are not putting up another 8 spot in the first 5 innings today. Other Pitching Thoughts I really wanted to justify going with Ryan Pepiot, but 95+ degrees with a good amount of humidity in Atlanta would make that the most ballsy call of the day.  Pepiot continues to build a solid resume as he is among league leaders in SwStr% and CSW% rates.  Enter the Braves hitters, whom are gonna be feeling pretty optimistic today after their early outburst last night & could oblige to giving him another 7+ strikeout game — but signs of life from Austin Riley, a due homer from Murphy or Olson and this can turn south really fast.  I’ll likely avoid Pepiot because of that.   NATS/MARLINS MIA – Bryan De La Cruz, Josh Bell, Jake Burger WSH – Lane Thomas, Joey Meneses I will be picking on DJ Herz, making his third start today, with the Marlins RHH but also expecting Jazz to contribute as the game moves into the Nats bullpen.  Nats are just as good of a play against T.Rodgers, but he did pitch well in his last start and might be good early in this one.  Bottom […]

Happy Flag Day and Happy Father’s Day Weekend.  It’s a great time of year, we are approaching the Summer Solstice, the Cubs are hosting the Cardinals in the afternoon today and we get to actually benefit from the Turbo slate games by avoiding Yankees/Red Sox tonight. If you don’t think the juiced balls are coming out today, you are mistaken. WEATHER Alright, it’s hot as hell now.  We have chance of storms in Baltimore and New York (Mets), but otherwise a clear night and those two games should really be fine as well.  Lots of dome game son this slate too with Arizona, Toronto, Milwaukee and Houston all hosting and all having their tops closed. HUNTER BROWN (DK: $7200, FD: $8600) Brown is acting a lot like a hitting prospect who came up, then got roughed up and was on the verge of losing his role only to recover and ascend up.  Ever since Houston took him out of the rotation briefly he has been on a roll, compiling about six straight decent starts, but two of them were the Angels, one the Mariners and one against these same Tigers.  Not exactly a murders row of lineups — yet we can only play who we face, right? KEVIN GAUSMAN (DK: $8500, FD: $8900) Going a little contrarian, but Gausman can negate the lack of strikeouts from the Guardians generally.  He is coming off his peak start of the year out in Oakland with 10 K, 0 ER and just 6 H/BB.  If this is the turning point for Gausman & he can put home struggles behind him then we’re going to reap the rewards tonight.  Naylors the main bat I fear, and he’s cooled off a little. CHRIS SALE (DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.1k) When at his peak, Sale against Tampa was an automatic cheat code and some of those Tampa teams, while bad, were better than this current Rays lineup.  With a ton of hitting out there tonight, finding some security in a projected 8 to 12 strikeout performance is very nice, even if you gotta pay for it. LUIS CASTILLO (DK: $8600, FD: $9900) No game/series is gonna test the ‘juiced balls’ theory more than this one, which features Castillo being pushed back to Friday to face Texas instead of a free square vs Chicago last night.  If Corey Seager returns I would downgrade Castillo further because Semien and Langford […]

Seven game main slate on FanDuel but only six on DraftKings, which has not included the Cubs/Rays 6:45 game.   WEATHER Decent wind blowing out in Citi Field and Fenway Park tonight.  No rain threats anywhere.   JOE RYAN (DK: $9500, FD: $10.8k) I would expect Joe Ryan to be chalk simply because it’s Oakland & Ryan is likely to get about a 30% strikeout rate in this match-up.  He’s a good play tonight even with the Athletics getting a slight upgrade in park shift.   Nola is option 2b, Crochet is option 2c…. GRIFFIN CANNING (DK: $5000, FD: $7500) Obviously a double pay up with Ryan & eiter Grochet/Nola is going to be popular, but this 5k price given that Arizona is going to have the roof closed & is much better vs lefties is worth a flyer on tonight. EMERSON HANCOCK (DK: $7700, FD: $7100) Hancock will start in place of Luis Castillo, I don’t mind going here since it’s the White Sox.   MARLINS Jazz, Burger & Bell PHILLIES Schwarber, Castellanos and yes … David Dahl TWINS Larnach, Correa, Kepler   CATCHER Nick Fortes Logan O’Hoppe Ryan Jeffers   FIRST BASE Bryce Harper Josh Bell   SECOND BASE Otto Lopez Bryson Stott Ryan Bliss   THIRD BASE Jake Burger Royce Lewis Alec Bohm   SHORTSTOP Mookie Betts Zach Neto Francisco Lindor   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Jazz Chisholm Jr. Kyle Schwarber David Fucking Dahl Trevor Larnach   Jazz Chisholm Jr – OF – Miami Marlins – Chairman of The Dongers Club Mookie Betts – SS – Dodgers Kyle Schwarber – OF – Phillies Jake Burger – 3B – Marlins   TOP BETS Marlins ML / Up 2 Early Win Angels ML Loving some dogs tonight.  

Giving you all two articles today because I really want to play both slates and because I missed writing length full breakdowns for the past … 36 hours?  Yeah, I’m a degen with no life.   WEATHER All clear   REYNALDO LOPEZ (DK: $8900, FD: $9400) It really feels like if the Braves do not get great starting pitching then they just get run out of games right now.  The offense is dead, but should wake up a little against Cole Irvin, but you can’t really count on that too much.  So Lopez is on his own here and needs to maintain a recent good K% rate. Look, it’s a four game slate with Corbin/Mize going so, cmon, I’m not gonna automatically have a raving review for every pitcher and this is the best. NESTOR CORTES (DK: $8600, FD: $8600) Just get the sweep over with Yankees.   Other Quick Thoughts There likely isn’t a ton of projected power from the Nationals today, but they should put the ball in play a ton and if BABIP goes well then you won’t want any part of Casey Mize who should have some long innings.   NATS / TIGERS NATS:  Rosario, Garcia DET:  Ibanez, Canha, Rogers   PIRATES vs CARDINALS PIT:  Reynolds, McCutchen, Cruz STL:  Burleson, Goldschmidt, Gorman, Arenado   CATCHER Jake Rogers Sean Murphy   FIRST BASE Paul Goldschmidt Mark Canha   SECOND BASE Luis Garcia Jr. Nolan Gorman Andy Ibanez   THIRD BASE Nolan Arenado KeBryan Hayes   SHORTSTOP Oneil Cruz Anthony Volpe   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Alex Verdugo Bryan Reynolds Alec Burleson Eddie Rosario   ONEIL CRUZ – SS – PIRATES – CHAIRMAN OF THE DONGERS CLUB   TOP BETS Pirates ML Braves ML

WEATHER All clear   BRYCE MILLER (DK: $9000, FD: $10.3k) … Hard to ignore the difference in Miller at home versus away and he’ll be at home tonight against Luis Robert and a bunch of rejects.  Enjoy the 6 innings and the win. CHRISTOPHER SANCHEZ (DK: $8000, FD: $8700) Tanner Bibee   General Comments: Overall this is a light pitching slate with very few guys that could go off.  The Bibbee vs Lodolo match-up looks good but neither stands out as dominant.   CARDINALS Winn, Goldschmidt, Arenado PHILLIES Schwarber, Stott, Bohm Definitely an expensive trio here, Bohm is the one nobody will have who I am certain hits a double off the monster to drive in runs or gets it out and over for a huge night.     CATCHER Logan O’Hoppe Tyler Stephenson Garrett Stubbs   FIRST BASE Paul Goldschmidt Vinnie Pasquantino Willie Calhoun   SECOND BASE Ketel Marte Bryson Stott Marcus Semien   THIRD BASE Alec Bohm Jake Burger Nolan Arenado   SHORTSTOP ONeil Cruz Masyn Winn JP Crawford   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Kyle Schwarber Bryan Reynolds Aaron Judge Starling Marte   ALEC BOHM – 3B – PHILLIES – CHAIRMAN OF THE DONGERS CLUB Aaron Judge – OF – Yankees Bryan Reynolds – OF – Pirates Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Cardinals Logan O’Hoppe – C – Angels   TOP BETS Guardians ML Pirates/Cardinals over 8

WEATHER All clear   JESUS LUZARDO (DK: $8100, FD: $9300) … After a collapse in his last start it will be key for Luzardo to start off quick against a potentially still jet-lagged Mets lineup.  New York has gone cold again against left handers, but if Alonso/JD Get hot then this quickly turns into a bad night for Luzardo.  I have confidence he gets off to a good start and finishes with a high strikeout total tonight. JORDAN MONTGOMERY (DK: $8000, FD $7400) .. There is almost no justification here to using Montgomery when you look at how he has fared in 2024 with the Diamondbacks and that I normally dont use LHP in Chase Field.  Especially when he’s pitching like 6k pitcher, but I have a strong gut feeling on Monty finally turning it around tonight. YUSEI KIKUCHI (DK: $9100, FD: $8700) … No comment, I guess I just like risky lefties today.   General Comments: I like Wheeler and Megill but something about the two teams coming back from London rubs me the wrong way, even if the pitchers werent over there themselves. Skenes is fine.   Very well spread out slate, but a couple spots that could shoot the moon.  One team I did not list here is Toronto, because I just do not trust them, but a couple one offs in there makes sense too. Guardians / Reds Naylor, Ramirez, Elly, Friedl More Great American Ballpark stacks.  Need that big 3-4 HR game to come through here soon.  Cleveland will get a dose of the Reds pen, they should hit well off them and Josh Naylor probably has a big series. Pirates vs Cardinals Reynolds, Cruz, Arenado I just see a ton of runs here while Skenes strikes out 9 but gives up 3-4 ER too.  Gotta LOVE Reynolds/Cruz on Pittsburgh side   Other Lineups I Like Yankees (Stanton, Rizzo, Judge, Soto) Diamondbacks (Marte, Gurriel, Moreno, Walker) Rockies vs Twins (McMahon, Kiriloff)   CATCHER Tyler Stephenson Gabriel Moreno   FIRST BASE One of the things I like to use my MLB Dashboard for is to sort by the salary and see how the ratings align.  Tonight, when you do that at 1st Base you clearly see all the top end players have the highest ratings, which helps justify that paying up here is a decent pick, but I would go to the second tier guys. Josh Naylor […]

Broken down by pricing tiers, Mark Farris outlines his favorite PGA DFS plays on DraftKings

I’m on travel (unfortunately, mostly for work) over the next few weeks and specifically for the next three days.  Shouldn’t be any limitation with getting Tuesday and Wednesday articles out but they both could be a little shorter on the depth of the content.  Quick glance at Wednesday, there isn’t much of an afternoon slate worth writing, so I definitely envision getting that article out for the Main slate that night.  There will definitely be a Tuesday article though.  Not gonna jinx it but, me traveling doesn’t usually impact the content quality. Meanwhile, in the least shocking but dumbest thing ever, we have ea 6:50 PM game which is not considered ‘MAIN’ slate worthy tonight, and thus you get extra time to tinker with lineups while a live Baseball game starts right at 7PM EST.  Stupid. WEATHER All clear   DYLAN CEASE (DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.2k) Your bother, your sister, your dog, your cat, your fish, your pet turtle — even the gay one, the butcher, the tailor, the barista, the janitor, the maid, the stripper, the only fans entrepreneur and even the spreadsheet nerds with no hair in their avatars are going to use Dylan Cease tonight.  Sure, it’s a short slate, so fading mega chalk has great upside if it fails.  There is also technically some upside in asking your wife if she would ever consider a three-some with the bartender when you’re on vacation together in Nashville…  However, in neither scenario, should we be seeking that upside.  Play Cease. LOGAN GILBERT (DK: 9800, FD: $10,800) This is definitely looking like a carbon copy of last Wednesday’s article when I said give me Cease and Gilbert and move on.  They didn’t post dominant scores but they did well and maybe he serves up a 2-run homer to Luis Robert.  Maybe?  That’s the only possible sore spot. SPENCER ARRIGHETTI (DK: $6500, FD: $8200) Do I trust Arrighetti?  No.  Do I trust the Giants though?  Absolutely not.  And how does one not look here and think of former Giant Dave Righetti?  For value options on pitching, there’s no reason to be slightly below Cease/Gilbert.  Go all the way down and take a chance on the young kid.   ROCKIES / TWINS COL:  McMahon, Tovar, Cave MIN:  Correa, Kepler, Buxton Chris Paddack remains bad, he should get hit by Colorado and it’ll be warm enough in Target Field to help the […]

There are 10 games today for the Sunday MAIN slate.  Thankfully they are playing the London Series game at 10:00 am so we have that going on in the background while building lineups. Something that I just cannot get past today is that 6 of the 10 series on the ‘MAIN’ slate are potential sweeps as every weekend series is really being dominated by one side.  Of the other three, the White Sox are actually looking to WIN a third game in a row, which as we all learned from the movie Major League, would be called a winning streak.  It has happened before. So basically, do you think that each the Giants, Pirates, Brewers, Reds, Orioles and Royals are going to sweep today?  Are the Twins going to get shutout AGAIN?  Am I really going to tout up the fucking Cubs again?  I’m sensing that maybe I am not the problem, but it’s rather that moron Craig Counsell since when he was with Milwaukee I could never bet the Brewers right.  Data doesnt lie folks! Let’s find out.   WEATHER All clear   Loaded with good pitching today, that’s the immediate take away as we run down the options and evaluate how they should fare today.  It’s one of those scenarios where I do not think you will be able to pivot and fade all the top options because too many of them are going to do well and you’ll wind up chasing numbers that guys like Andre Pallante, KEaton Winn and DJ “Dont call me Khalid” Herz could only dream of. And yet, my instinct as I go through each guy is to find something wrong with them, so here are the ones I think have the fewest risk spots today. GRAYSON RODRIGUEZ (DK: $9500, FD: $9800) Tampa is just terrible and I wouldn’t expect what Bradish did yesterday from Grayson, but he should be able to also limit Tampa to almost no offensive production.  He has handled the Lowe’s before & until Tampa makes some type of drastic coaching change I am not really scared of using pitchers against them with just no logical approach to what they are doing in each AB and as a team. GEORGE KIRBY Apologies, I had missed the Braves SP starting today and the data feed was showing Fried.  Kirby is my SP2. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS My confidence level from those […]

Just one article for the 4PM (Main) slate today.  The London game is the Showdown 1PM EST game today, this 10 game slate and then a tilt slate for those of you who want to partake in that sorta thing tonight. WEATHER MIL @ DET:  Rain will push in towards the end of the game, but not a big deal   FREDDY PERALTA (DK: $10k, FD: $10.5k) I do not wanna force Peralta on everyone today, but we have to not be too stubborn here.  Detroit’s a bad offense and Peralta really shows very little limitations today, but I do believe Riley Greene and/or Matt Vierling jack one out on him.  Yet, with that, and a possible 8 strikeout floor here, we can still wind up seeing a chalky Peralta finish over 20 DK FPTS, which is pretty solid on this garbage pitching afternoon. KYLE BRADISH (DK: $8700, FD: $9000) Bradish and Bradley faced off in Camden Yards exactly one week ago in a warm afternoon Saturday game.  But today, there’s gonna be some long lines as it’s down at the St. Petersburg regional COSTCO and a nice quiet afternoon game for both these pitchers to bounce back.  I trust the Rays offense to suck more than the Orioles, so we go with Bradish. KYLE GIBSON (DK: $6900, FD: $8600) Opponents matter.  That’s the reason here on Gibson.  Using him against the Rockies in a game he should get plenty of ground balls and maybe the Cards push him through 6 innings. CUBS / REDS So, the Cubs, uh.  They didn’t do great last night.  Whatever…. TWINS vs PIRATES Twins:  Larnach, Kepler, Kiriloff Pirates:  Cruz, Suwinski, Reynolds The Pirates are rolling out an opener in Carmen “Dont call me Ted” Mlodzinski while the Twins counter with the Hebrew Tree Dicks (Simeon Woods Richardson for you new folks).  Neither scenario is one which I trust.  Maybe PIttsburgh will be smart and bat Suwinski 5th or 6th.  Either way, Oneil Cruz heater weekend is here and shall continue but finding value in Max Kepler , Trevor Larnach and the Twins LiPNC plays is likely a DFS must today. OTHER HITTING NOTES Teams that make a ton of sense, which I just don’t fully trust … Boston (Duran/Hamilton), Texas (No clue what to do with them, so fading). I wouldn’t pull the trigger on a single lineup, but I have a strong gut […]