Early Slate with 7 games on DraftKings and … well, FanDuel is just gonna FanDuel.  Basically DraftKings skipped the Cardinals/Pirates game, making that a showdown 12:35 spot start for those who are starting their afternoon lunch early and want to load up on a Cardinals Stack. FanDuel included that game but only with the 1pm/2pm games on their ‘Very Early’ slate. This article is going to cover the DraftKings 1PM slate which includes Cubs/Tigers, Mariners/White Sox, Twins/Brewers, Royals/Athletics, Giants/Phillies, Marlins/Padres and Reds/Angels G1 of their double-header. Shohei Ohtani is PITCHING in that early game, so that’s how DK has him labeled.   WEATHER Cubs at Tigers — Thunderstorms could disrupt the game, but they will finish it. Mariners at White Sox — It’s gonna feel like 100 degrees in Chicago today, closer to 140 if you factor in the temperature of the Mariners offense right now.  Oh and the wind is blowing out to left field.  Oh and Michael Kopech is pitching.  LOL.  Fun times my friends, fun times.   This 1-2 combination I have listed below could wind up being a highly chalky spot given their pricing, but I am not worried much about the ownership on either. Shohei Ohtani:  Day game in Anaheim yes, but no concerns as Ohtani at home always cruises along to get through 6 innings. Cole Ragans:   Very cheap and pitching well enough to trust.  The Royals have no limitations on him at the moment and the consistent 30%+ CSW rate against a young Oakland lineup should continue here today. I think that Burnes will pitch well enough to not burn you (no pun intended) and Sandy Alcantara has another very SOLID outing as well.  They both make for fine secondary options but I have no concerns with Ohtani/Ragans at all today.   MARINERS Hernandez, France, Rodriguez, Rojas Kopech has shown zero signs of life that would warrant thinking the Mariners high K% comes back today and he capitalizes on that.  Happy Ty France day. TIGERS Greene, Torkelson, Carpenter Torkelson and Carpenter are playing out of their minds right now, both hitting everything well and hard.  The player I really like to have a big game though is Riley Greene, he’s $4600 compared to Akil Baddoo for 3100, but if you go Tigers, Greene is the guy to have a 3-5 day with a triple and 3 runs scored.   Also expect to produce […]

Wake up, it’s Yusei Kikuchi vs the Orioles on a Tuesday night day!   WEATHER Looks all clear.   LUCAS GIOLITO DK: $9100, FD: $9100 Anaheim is a decent spot for LHH, but really we’re just dealing with Votto and EDLC.  A young Reds lineup mostly and a sharp Giolito who is pitching well for Anaheim, has plenty of rest and you can be assured he will go 100+ pitches and likely 6+ innings.  One of the more safer options out there tonight. GRAYSON RODRIGUEZ DK:  $6100, FD: $8200 If the game was in Toronto then I can justify passing on Rodriguez, who is graded lower than he should be and priced lower than he should be as well.  Lefties have been able to handle the young kid, but the Jays have really just Varsho and Belt in that regard.  The righties in Camden should not be able to take him deep, outside of maybe Bichette going opposite field for a double but that’s hard to do in Camden unless you hit the fence where the grounds crew sits just right. BRYAN WOO DK:  $7600, FD: $7900 After Luis Castillo threw nothing but fastballs last night, in comes Bryan Woo who throws his 4-seamer 49% of the time and his 2-seamer 26% of the time.  Gee, I wonder what he’s gonna do here.  And I wonder what the White Sox are gonna do in return? OTHER PITCHING NOTES Graham Ashcraft … was someone I had on my Monday radar before they PPD the game, but that was when we had a very limited menu of pitching selections.  I can’t say I don’t like him now, I just don’t have him in the top 3 anymore. Jesus Luzardo … We don’t use Jesus on the west coast.  That aint no holy land out there. Josiah Gray … Should carve up the little league Yankees.  He should.  I repeat….  He should.  Go right ahead and do that yourself, something smells fishy here and it’s not Anthony Rizzo   TWINS / BREWERS Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa … Christian Yelich, Rowdy Tellez, Sal Frelick I fucking love this spot for both teams.  Gimme 15+ runs through the first 5 innings, lots of homers, plenty of doubles from the Twins and a 4-6 night from Jorge Polanco. ORIOLES Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander Kikuchi has been pitching very well of late.  Enter Ryan Mountcastle and the Orioles.  You […]

August 21st, the day when MLB looks like a damn NFL pre-season slate.  The pitching tonight is an absolute hogwash of journeymen, call-ups and guys who are just trying to somehow keep their MLB careers alive. It’s ugly.   WEATHER Reds at Angels – PPD from lingering Hurricane effects. I see no other issues today   PAUL BLACKBURN DK:  $7000, FD: $7800 KC is hitting very well in August, but anyone who goes into Oakland at a night game gets downgraded quite a bit. CRISTIAN JAVIER DK: $7100, FD: $9400 I liked Ashcraft a good amount before that game was PPD, so Javier slides in as a similarly priced option who should match or even beat Castillo (chalkier/higher rated) tonight.  Boston’s been hitting well and has a couple RHH that give him issues like Justin Turner, but we can search for 6 IP and a good QS none the less from Javier. OTHER PITCHING NOTES Luis Castillo continues to be a much better pitcher at home than on the road (2.70 vs 3.90 ERA difference just for example).  The White Sox are coming out of Coors but that’s not enough for me to pay extra for him tonight.   RANGERS Seager, Garver, Jankowski Corey Seager, the holy spirit himself, is going back home tonight.  Yeah, he’s from North Carolina origionally, but the kid fucking destroyed Chase Field with his time as a Dodger.  Granted, he is destroying every field right now and a little road trip should get Texas going PIRATES / CARDINALS PIT:  Reynolds, Davis, Hayes STL:  Arenado, Edman, Goldschmidt The Cardinals are going to mix Drew Rom and Matthew Liberatore together tonight it sounds like.  Drew Rom is a  lefty pitcher the Cardinals received in the Jack Flaherty deal with Baltimore.  Outside of having decent K% in the minors he hasn’t been very good and I would expect Pittsburgh to hit him tonight — even though they will grade poorly on the model. METS McNeil, Lindor, Nimmo After dealing away their pitching and sending up the white flag, the Mets veterans have finally started to hit.  Warm night in Atlanta should only keep that trend going.   Also Like:   Marlins CATCHER Mitch Garver Martin Maldanado   FIRST BASE Justin Turner Nate Lowe Christian Walker Paul Goldschmidt   SECOND BASE Ha-Seong Kim Jeff McNeil Jose Altuve   THIRD BASE Austin Riley Nolan Arenado Jake Burger   SHORTSTOP Corey Seager […]

No clue why but this has a nostalgic feel for me today.  I think it’s because there are almost no late games so it feels like a throw back to when Sunday MLB DFS was the entire slate of games, yes, I am old. Pitching Openers today Josh Winckowski opening before Nick Pivetta vs NYY Jake Junis opening before Sean Manaea vs ATL Ryan Borsucki opening before Osvaldi Bido vs MIN   WEATHER I see no issues today   MAX SCHERZER DK: $11000, FD: $10900 Historically Max has had problems with the Brewers lineup, but this is a new Max pitching with energy and on an absolute tear in his new uniform down in Texas. LOGAN ALLEN DK: $8800, FD: $9100 Detroit’s hitting just .204 with a 30% strikeout rate against LHP over the last week and Javy Baez just homered yesterday.  He won’t homer again today even though it is Sunday and that’s usually his best day. MAX FRIED DK:  $9900, FD: $9800 From 72 pitches to 79 pitches and then 83 pitches despite allowing 8 hits in his last start.  Max #2 is a little overpriced here because he’s trending towards an 88 or 90 pitch outing with 5 hits allowed and 5 strikeouts, not quite enough to push Scherzer off the top spot but also a limited damage scenario against the Giants. SUNDAY SLEEPER(s) We’re not gonna use any sleepers here today on the pitching front.  The only ‘bad’ pitchers who I could see pitching better than expectations are Dallas Keuchel and Carlos Carrasco, neither of whom I would feel comfortable with using but if you had to pay down it would be Cookies Carrasco because at least he could pull out 5 or 6 strikeouts.  Keuchel’s facing a team struggling with LHP of late, but he just is an innings eater at best for the Twins and hasn’t shown to have anything left in his two spot starts for them. Clarke Schmidt probably has the best ‘arm talent’ of anyone under $8000 on DraftKings who isn’t facing the Atlanta Braves (yes, this is a Jake Junis comment), so I get if you want to justify him, but I would rather trust Matt Ryan with a 28-3 lead than anything associated with the Yankees right now. Among the openers Sean Manaea and Osvaldo Bido are both fairly cheap and can deliver 2x.  Bido is very risky IMO […]

Overview The Cup Series driers get their chance to run Watkins Glen International Sunday in Watkins Glen, New York. “The Glen” is an 11-turn, 3.40-mile road course made of asphalt and concrete. Road courses are their own animal as it may be easier to identify track similarities simply by looking at other road courses and […]

Another College Football season is about to kick off and I felt it was appropriate to put some information out there regarding what I will continue to offer with ‘The Tailgate‘ offering this upcoming season, as well as the Tools, Ratings and Projections we offer here at DailyAmbush. So much attention is given to NFL and […]

So there are now some double headers today due to the Hurricane which is approaching out in California as the Sunday games were moved up to Saturday for double-headers. Rays at Angels (Eflin vs Sandoval) Marlins at Dodgers (Garrett vs Urias) Diamondbacks at Padres (TBD vs Darvish) The second game of each double header is listed on the MAIN slate tonight on DraftKings, while FanDuel has dropped all of them even though the start time is still listed within the window.   WEATHER Lingering rain in Coors Field.   YU DARVISH I can see a theory on them rushing the game along with weather coming in.  It sounds weird to say that in Baseball but some quick AB from the Diamondbacks and this one is a clean 90 pitch 6 inning start for Darvish. FRAMBER VALDEZ He does well vs the Mariners PATRICK SANDOVAL Similar theory with Darvish   GUARDIANS Ramirez, Laureano They’re free and they should hit Matt Manning who is coming off a good start in Boston, but prior to that this season had really struggled. GIANTS Wade, Pederson, Conforto Definitely a Joc revenge HR game tonight. PIRATES Suwinski, Reynolds, Davis   CATCHER Endy Rodriguez Sean Murphy Patrick Bailey   FIRST BASE Andrew Vaughn LaMonte Wade Jr Ryan Mountcastle   SECOND BASE Zack Gelof Jose Altuve Edouard Julien   THIRD BASE KeBryan Hayes Jose Ramirez Austin Riley   SHORTSTOP Francisco Lindor Gabriel Arias Jeremy Pena   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Joc Pederson Yordan Alvarez Jack Suwinski Bryan Reynolds   Jack Suwinski – OF – Pirates – Chairman of The Dongers Club  

The Tigers and Guardians game which was on the MAIN slate has been moved off as they’re now playing a double-header.  This has given us a 2 game Early slate to pair those knuckleheads with the Royals and Cubs from Wrigleyville on a Friday Afternoon in August Baby!   WEATHER No issues   PABLO LOPEZ Do I wanna use Pirates?  Yeah, kinda.  Am I crazy?  Yeah, kinda.  Lopez probably gets near the top in ownership tonight around 20-30%, he should have a 30% strikeout night and the Twins trust him to give them 6+ IP as well. KYLE GIBSON Gibson in a huge park is where he thrives.  He should go into the Coliseum tonight, get some grounders, get some long fly ball outs and get through 7 innings after a bad last start. SANDY ALCANTARA Sandy is back, not quite to the dominant 2023 level, but back as a very reliable option.  Obviously last start was against the lowly Yankee lineup and he did throw 116 pitches just 6 days ago, so that’s why he ranks third, but a 13-18 DK FPTS return tonight isn’t the worst result and I trust Sandy more than others to not go negative here either. OTHER OPTIONS Spencer Strider:  Dont expect another blow up like that Pirate game two starts back.  He will be fine, but also not a 13K Strider spot IMO. Brandon Pfaadt:  The flashes have shown up for Pfaadt late into his rookie campaign.  Still a good long term pitching option for Arizona, who faces a SD team with holes and thus the ceiling potential is good here. Zack Thompson: Thompson will grade well off his one start returning to the mound on 8/11 vs Kansas City.  He’s not stretched out to go long, so the price is appropriate here, but the Mets aren’t a dominant team vs LHP either.     RED SOX Devers, Story, Duvall, Yoshida, Casas Is tonight the night it all implodes for the Yankees?  Sure does feel like it can’t get much worse, but the Red Sox coming in and dropping a 7 spot in the first five innings might just cause that train to finally go off the tracks. ROCKIES Tovar, McMahon, Jones Kopech and Lambert facing off in Coors.  Just hang them up if the worst walk guy in the game comes into Coors and decides to not walk anyone.  You can’t walk […]

Back to an 8 game main slate tonight.   WEATHER No issues   CLAYTON KERSHAW — DK: $9900, FD: $10,800 Just his second start back from IL stint, so any concerns about the Dodgers keeping him under 80 pitches is valid, but the end line for Clayton should be around 6 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 5 or 6 K with at most 1 ER allowed.  Very basic and very efficient. MIKE CLEVINGER — DK: $5700 Another cheap option to either pair with Gore or play with the higher $ pitching.  Weather in Wrigley won’t be an issue and the Cubs aren’t smashing RHP much of late.  The Swanson/Bellinger heaters are gone. JON GRAY — DK: $6900, FD: $8600 C’Mon, the Angels aren’t an ELITE offense against RHP.  They’re known to have big strikeout games and Gray’s recent form is back on track.   Why is he $6900? MacKENZIE GORE — DK: $6000, FD: $8200 One of these pitchers in DC is $8200 and the other is $6200 in the Sox/Nats game and they have it all backwards.  It’s Gore who has the strikeout split advantage against the better hitters, it’s Gore who is going to get a higher whiff rate on his breaking pitch and it’s Gore who I will ride and die with at this cheap price.  Unfortunately he allows at least one homer to Trevor Story, possibly two.   RANGERS Semien, Lowe, Garcia, Smith DODGERS Betts, Smith, Martinez ALWAYS BRAVES Olson, Murphy, Acuna You can build Atlanta stacks tonight with Clevinger, Gore and Gray as the primary pitching options.  Granted, the stacks above are kinda pricey too.   CATCHER Will Smith Cal Raleigh Danny Jansen   FIRST BASE Matt Olson Ryan Mountcastle Nathaniel Lowe   SECOND BASE Trevor Story Gleyber Torres Jake Cronenworth   THIRD BASE Eugenio Suarez Maikel Garcia Josh H Smith   SHORTSTOP God’s Second Son Corey Seager Elvis Andrus   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Bryce Harper Mookie Betts Ronald Acuna Jr. Juan Soto   OUTFIELD – Tier 2 Adolis Garcia Teoscar Hernandez Anthony Santander   Trevor Story – 2B – Boston Red Sox – Chairman of The Dongers Club Bryce Harper – OF – Phillies  

Almost everyone is on the MAIN slate tonight, as it brings out a 13 game Tuesday night slate.   WEATHER Boston at Washington – Storms early and lingering showers.  Honestly, if it wasn’t the Nationals I wouldn’t mention it.  They should play just fine.   JACK FLAHERTY — DK: $8400, FD: $9600 Sometimes you cannot talk to people who just do not get things, and that is how I feel when I speak about Adley Rutschman and why he is the real American League MVP. Exhibit #47 – Jack Flaherty.  Amazing!  The guy goes from having zero confidence with the Cardinals, talking batters left and right, not getting through 4 innings cleanly and suddenly with the Orioles he is not walking more than 2 batters per game, striking out well over 1 batter per IP and proving to be one of the best trade deadline acquisitions in recent memory. I wonder why?  Oh yes, maybe because he is finally back with an elite level catcher who improves almost every pitcher that he works with since coming into the Major Leagues.  San Diego is not extremely dangerous, they do not have enough lefties to give Flaherty trouble and I say ride the Jack and Adley train. BOBBY MILLER — DK: $9300 The Brewers have really lowered their strikeout rates recently, but I trust the arm talent here to do decent enough.  Despite having 26 options tonight the way the pricing is on a lot of the top guys I would be comfortable just searching for a 15-16 point outing, that’s Miller at home.   Dont mind, but not gonna expect a massive game … Kyle Hendricks – DK $7400 Jordan Lyles – DK $6500 Bailey Ober – $10,200   PHILLIES Bohm, Castellanos, Realmuto, Turner Yusei Kikuchi, I say BOHM’s away… BRAVES Harris II, Olson, Lopez Death, taxes and the Braves every night, right?  Well, as long as we have MH2 batting 2nd for 4100 and Nicky Lopez going insane at the plate then we can lock and load up on a couple Braves without breaking the bank.  Love Olson tonight as well, but 1B is kinda deep again. NATIONALS Ruiz, Abrams, Dom Smith Insane DC weather tonight for homers.  Prefer the Nationals side for cheaper. TWINS Polanco, Kepler, Lewis, Wallner   CATCHER JT Realmuto Keibert Ruiz Freddy Fermin   FIRST BASE Matt Olson Freddie Freeman Jake Bauers Triston Casas   SECOND […]