The Dongers Club – Thu, Aug 20th

← The Dongers Club hub  ·  Daily MLB home run picks & DFS, since August 2020. Browse the archive or see how DCPA works.

SLATE INTRO I did my weather analysis too early yesterday and with lots of site migrations going on it was a challenge for me to get the update in that the ATL/WAS game was likely going to get PPD.  I got this update into the SLACK channel but even then it came very late for a lot of folks.  The issue here remains that both FD and DK have not built into their sites the ability for a game which never starts to unlock.  I understand that they have this 2016 brain lock mentality that ownership % is so important that you cannot show player ownership and then allow someone to change off that player to another spot.  Normally I would agree, but in the case where the player isn’t playing at all then the point about ownership % being important is completely lost.  It doesn’t matter.  The player is getting a 0.  Of course you want to swap off them…   It’s bad customer service and design and leaves a poor taste in the users mouths while also making the competitiveness of the product far less.     WEATHER I believe we should be all clear today.   This is a very good pitching slate and I envision there being only a couple automatic spots for offense tonight.  So it’s telling me that our lineup construction today allows for some ole “DFS Game Theory” (a term I hate) tonight when it comes to blindly picking your pitchers.  So follow along good friends, follow along…   Jose Berrios He is my top and favorite arm on both sites.  He has the same upside that Bieber has and the Twins are not losing this game to the Brewers.  I joked last night that as Milwaukee was hitting more and more homers that we had concluded our one day for 2020 of using Brewers hitters and now we must refresh our memory that they’re terrible against RHP and all those guys who had big games last night (Braun, Avisail specifically) are going to go back to sleep tonight.   Berrios has fallen into that ‘Bauer’ category that I labeled on Trevor last season when he started to see the AL Central teams far too much.  Berrios is a very talented arm but at times struggles with knowing how to pitch out of trouble and so far this season he has faced the Royals twice and…...

Keep reading — and get the full war room.

The rest of this breakdown is for members. A subscription unlocks the entire Daily Ambush platform:

  • Command Center — your entire slate on one screen
  • Tier-graded stacks (A/B/C) with heatmap and pair analysis
  • Ambush Intel — named AI agents tracking live P/L, every sport
  • Batter vs. pitcher pitch arsenals, xwOBA splits, BvP history
  • Lineup optimizer with pro stack rules and exposure controls
  • SIM Matrix — Monte Carlo simulation engine

View Membership Options Already a member? Log in