Sit down. You want a coffee? No? Fine. We got Tailgate Week 8 open on the desk, and the Tout led off with this: “I think my favorite part about this slate has to be my bold bets at the end.” Then he said that’s why they’re winners.
Lemme tell you how the books came back. The DFS card did OK. It wasn’t great, it wasn’t a disaster. The TCU core paid, Toney did something beautiful, and Sategna came out of nowhere at a price. The Texas Tech stack ran into a wall, the Play of the Day put up 2.2, and the bold bets went 0-4 on what we can grade. So the favorite part was the part that cost the most money.
That’s the service. Let’s go line by line.
THE GOOD
Jaden Craig ($6400 – TCU)
“Lock him in,” he said. Craig went 33/47 for 372 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, plus 12-26-1 on the ground: 27.5 DK points, QB #6 on the slate, 4.3 points per $1k. He was 33.96% owned, so the room had him too, but the call was right and the model agreed (QB #3). He even called the pick. “I don’t care.” Fair enough. The price is what made it work.
Jordan Dwyer ($5300 – TCU)
“Small is out and Dwyer moves into that WR1 role.” That’s the whole argument, and it held up: 10-113-0, 24.3 DK points, WR #7 out of 114, 4.58 per $1k on 27.64% ownership. The model had him WR #14 with a 16.54 projection. The Tout went higher than the model on him and got paid. Craig plus Dwyer is 51.8 points for $11,700. That stack paid its bills.
Isaiah Sategna III ($6600 – Oklahoma)
“The one Sooner I trust.” Trust got rewarded. Sategna went 8-164-1 receiving and added 3-24 on the ground: 35.8 DK points, WR #3 on the slate, at 14.27% owned. The model rated him WR #6 but only projected 11.83 with a 13.58 ceiling. He beat the ceiling by 22 points. That’s a good read, and it wasn’t the model’s read.
DeSean Bishop ($8100 – Tennessee) and Michael Hawkins Jr. ($9700 – West Virginia)
Bishop got the workhorse day he was sold on: 32-120-1, 23.0 points, RB #3. Hawkins, “the keepers score him points no matter what,” did exactly that: 7/15 for 79 through the air but 20-87-2 rushing, 26.9 points, QB #8. At $9700 that’s only 2.77 per $1k, so it wasn’t a bargain. Still, the reason he gave is the reason it scored. And WVU didn’t fall behind. They won 24-20.
Cole Tabb ($6600 – Cincinnati)
He was a conditional bring-back, but credit where it’s due. Tabb went 16-173-1 with a receiving TD for 34.8 points, the top RB on the slate, at 13.11% owned. Anyone who took the bring-back got paid.
THE BAD
The Texas Tech stack: J’Koby Williams ($7900), Will Hammond ($5800), Kenny Johnson ($4900)
“Tech should be up two scores in the second half.” Tech lost 37-24. J’Koby, “my RB1 and the guy I’m paying for,” went 12-81 plus 3-10: 12.1 points at 20.7% owned. Hammond threw 24/37 for 227, no TDs, a pick, and ran 14-23: 9.4 points. Kenny Johnson was fine at 7-81, 15.1 points. The three-man stack scored 36.6 for $18,600.
Here’s the thing. The model had Hammond QB #2 and J’Koby RB #3, so this wasn’t a narrative play the numbers couldn’t back. The process was fine. The game script went the other way. Right call, wrong day. Nobody’s getting whacked for that.
Wayne Knight ($8600 – UCLA)
The matchup was what he said it was, and UCLA won 28-10. Knight still went 15-56-1 for 11.6 points. The UCLA back who ate was Anthony Woods: 14-112-1, 23.9 points at $5400. Variance, mostly. But at $8600 you need more than a goal-line role to get your money back.
Cam Cook ($8400 – West Virginia)
“I still have this weird soft spot for West Virginia running backs.” The soft spot didn’t cost you much, but it didn’t pay either. He went 18-90 with a receiving TD for 17.3 points, 2.06 per $1k. Not a disaster, but not the paycheck the price called for.
THE AMAZING
Malachi Toney ($9300 – Miami)
“Mensah’s throws run through Toney.” 16 catches, 194 yards, 3 touchdowns. 56.4 DK points, the best score on the whole slate at any position, at 20.53% owned. The model had him WR #1 and the Tout played him as a one-off. Miami won 52-23. When the model and the Tout agree and the guy hangs 56, that’s a beautiful thing. I got nothing to add.
THE UGLY
Kamari Moulton ($7100 – Iowa)
Core play. Tailgate Play of the Day. 10 carries, 22 yards, 2.2 DK points, RB #46 out of 88. That’s 0.31 per $1k at 14.35% owned.
What makes it ugly is the process, not just the result. “Ugly game, but he’s the only thing worth owning in it.” The total in that game was 31.5. It finished 13-10, Minnesota. The model had Moulton RB #7, but his ceiling was 19.13. You don’t make your Play of the Day the best piece of the worst game. The Play of the Day needs a ceiling, and this guy’s best case was about 19. That’s not an obstacle. That’s a hole you dug.
THE MODEL
The model had a decent day at QB and a rough one at RB. Spearman rho, rating vs actual: QB 0.646 (0.72 off projection), WR 0.516, RB 0.424. The top-10 rated QBs averaged 26.3 against 21.9 projected. The top-10 WRs averaged 19.1 against 14.2. The top-10 RBs came in under, 15.3 against 18.2.
Where the article and the model agreed and it hit: Craig (QB #3), Toney (WR #1), Bishop (RB #1). Where it went beyond the model and it hit: Dwyer (WR #14, 24.3) and Sategna, whose projection was 11.83 and who scored 35.8. Where they agreed and both lost: Hammond (QB #2, 9.4), J’Koby (RB #3, 12.1), Knight (RB #5, 11.6), and Moulton (RB #7, 2.2).
The model’s own busts: Charlie Becker, WR #2, 3-32 for 6.2 points. Anthony Evans III, WR #5, 9.3. Mark Fletcher Jr., RB #6, 12.7.
Slate winners the article never mentioned:
- Sam Leavitt (LSU, $8700): 41.9, the top QB, model QB #6 at 7.69% owned.
- Jackson Harris (LSU, $5800): 9-178-2, 41.8, the #2 WR, model WR #24.
- Darian Mensah (MIA, $9000): 33.3, model QB #1. The Tout wrote that his throws run through Toney and then played only Toney.
- Keyone Jenkins (UCF, $6000): 33.2, model QB #19 at 0.65% owned.
- LaNorris Sellers (SCAR, $7700): 33.0, model QB #4. The card said “Bishop and Defense” in that game.
- Cataurus Hicks (PITT, $5700): 28.9, model WR #22.
- Kyler Kasper (BYU, $4600): 27.9, model WR #32.
- Anthony Woods (UCLA, $5400): 23.9, model RB #28.
The model missed the LSU passing game and the UCF game (31-39, the over cashed) just like the Tout did. But it had Mensah and Sellers near the top, and the article passed on both.
THE BETS
“We go all in.” Okay. Here’s the ledger.
- Indiana -7.5: Indiana won 13-6. That’s 7 points. Lost by half a point. That’s a bad beat, sure, but laying 7.5 in a game totaled 26.5 is asking for one.
- Iowa -7.5: Minnesota won 13-10, outright. Loss.
- BYU -7.5 at UCF: UCF won 39-31, outright. Loss.
- Auburn +7: LSU won 38-17. 21 points. Loss, and it wasn’t close.
- Syracuse ML at North Carolina: No final on my sheet, so it stays off the books.
0-4 on the graded tickets. One more thing: our agent Homecoming Hannah had the same Indiana -7.5 and Iowa -7.5, and both lost there too. Those two were both road favorites laying more than a touchdown in games totaled under 32. When the total is that low, a 7.5 spread is a big chunk of the whole game. That’s process, and you can fix it.
THE VERDICT
Grade: D+
The DFS card earned about a C. Craig, Dwyer, Toney and Sategna paid with interest. The Tech stack was a fair bet that lost. The Play of the Day and the 0-4 betting card drag the grade down, and those weren’t bad luck.
Next week: a Play of the Day has to come from a game that can score. If the total is under 32, don’t lay 7.5. And if you write that a QB’s throws run through his WR1, think about playing the QB too.
The books are closed. Capisce? Same time next week.