Two markets are set for Broncos at Chiefs: DFS ownership and the anytime touchdown board. Both price Kansas City’s skill players as though Mahomes’ return means a full-strength offense. Our showdown ratings and projections disagree in three places:
- Denver’s receivers: ceiling the field isn’t paying for.
- Denver’s lead back: the one touchdown price our model fully supports.
- Kansas City’s passing volume: we project Mahomes for 196.5 yards against a 225.5 line.
Model vs. market: anytime touchdowns
We converted projected rushing and receiving touchdowns into a probability of scoring at least once, then compared it with the best price at the major US books. Our projections run lower on touchdowns than the books almost across the board, so the useful number is the ratio: how much of the market’s price our model supports.
| Player | Best price | Market | Model | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB | -120 | 54.5% | 42.8% | 0.79 |
| Rashee RiceKC · WR | +185 | 35.1% | 26.4% | 0.75 |
| Travis KelceKC · TE | +220 | 31.3% | 21.9% | 0.70 |
| Jaylen WaddleDEN · WR | +225 | 30.8% | 15.6% | 0.51 |
| J.K. DobbinsDEN · RB | +185 | 35.1% | 36.0% | 1.03 |
| Emmett JohnsonKC · RB | +600 | 14.3% | 24.3% | 1.70 |
Kansas City’s top three land between 0.70 and 0.79. Dobbins is the only lead back the model fully supports (12 projected carries to RJ Harvey’s 7, with the goal-line work). Emmett Johnson is the one price on the board where our model sees more touchdown equity than the market. Waddle’s 0.51 is a warning, not a fade: his case is yardage and ceiling, not scoring.
Model vs. market: ownership
Projected ownership piles onto the Chiefs: Rice 31.4%, Mahomes 29.7%, Kelce 17.9%. Ceilings aren’t nearly as lopsided. Waddle’s 21.6 ceiling is second among receivers, behind only Rice, at 4.2% owned, and Sutton’s 18.2 comes at 3.7%. Waddle and Rice rate almost identically as flex plays (62.3 vs. 61.1), yet 27 points of ownership separate them. That’s the biggest mispricing in the 32-player pool, and it exists mostly because Waddle is debuting in a new offense and the field wants to see a game of film first.
Our Board also rates Denver’s DST well ahead of Kansas City’s as a captain (59.5 vs. 40.5). That rating was set before left tackle Josh Simmons was ruled out, so an undrafted rookie making his first start against Nik Bonitto is upside the number doesn’t include yet.
Team context worth carrying
- Kansas City: Mahomes is 13-2 against Denver, but with 21 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions in those 15 games, 1.4 touchdowns a game. That fits fading KC pass-catcher touchdown prices.
- Denver: Bonitto posted 14 sacks last season, and every Bronco practiced in full this week. Nothing in the Denver case depends on anyone’s health.
See the full showdown analysis. Captain board, every prop against our projection, the optimizer and exposure.
Captain and build
Dobbins is the captain: a fair touchdown price, 10% projected ownership, and less than that at CPT. Mahomes goes in the flex, where his 73.8 captain rating works without giving us the same multiplier as a third of the field.
The last two spots are members-only. Get the full build, plus the Showdown Lab optimizer for your own.
The build leaves $2,000 unspent, which is where most optimal showdown lineups finish, and it wins if Denver controls the game while Kansas City’s volume comes late. If you need salary, Evan Engram ($3,400, the top TE flex rating at 60.9) is a better value than Pat Bryant ($3,200), who almost has to score to pay off.
The bets
- J.K. Dobbins anytime TD, +185 (Fanatics; +175 at DraftKings and FanDuel). Model and market agree on the probability while the field looks elsewhere, which is the combination we want.
- Emmett Johnson anytime TD, +600 (FanDuel, Fanatics). Our model has him at 24.3% and the price implies 14.3%, the widest gap on the board. Keep it small; the variance is large.
- Pat Bryant Under 2.5 receptions, -125 (BetMGM). On roughly 8,000 settled props last season, books shaded the Over on receptions. Corrected for that, this Under comes out at 60.8%.
No total and no spread. The sharpest market in the world has the Over 44 at plus money, but at the US books it’s 43.5 at -110, which is essentially breakeven. The spread is where the market is most efficient, and our inputs split on it.
Method: model touchdown probability = 1 − e−λ, where λ is projected rushing plus receiving touchdowns. All numbers are from the DailyAmbush showdown ratings, projections and Bureau board as of Monday afternoon. Lines move, so check your book before the 8:15 ET kickoff.