For the analytical and critical thinkers Week 18 is actually a nice little challenge to sift through what are logical plays and what is a random good luck charm. For this season the NFL really has one big game today and it’s the SNF game between the Vikings / Lions which sets up to be a fantastic showdown slate by itself.
For the rest of the league, I honestly don’t see much drama today, but let’s go through the games to find out some longshot plays. If you don’t wanna do DFS, it’s a neat day to take some longshots on anytime touchdowns but don’t try to do more than 1 TD per game folks.
THE TOP GAMES TO FOCUS ON
- Panthers at Falcons … Nobody is really hyping up the fact that the Panthers are playing as well as the Falcons over the last month. Two young QB in a controlled environment with lots of bad defensive
- Saints at Bucs … Our first of the one sided spots. Load up on Tampa Bay
- Chiefs at Broncos … KC is going to be happy to have a 3 and out, punt the ball and then let the Broncos dink and dunk their way down the field. Nix could complete 25+ passes today if he tries because the Chiefs will just play dont get beat deep and hope the Broncos settle for Field Goals. This is a direct path into the Sean Payton 2.0 scheme and the Broncos will rack up the yards and possibly touchdowns as well.
COULD PRODUCE FANTASY VALUE (i.e. OVERS)
- Bills at Patriots
- Jaguars at Colts
- Seahawks at Rams … The Rams might lose 40-0 and that is saying something for a team who is going to the playoffs. But that is 100% the type of coach Sean McVay is with regards to resting. He will either go all in and rest or play hard. He’s gonna go all in here and Seattle could be happy to just put up a quick 20+ points and then cruise until this game is over. I like the Seahawks 1H and then a second half under.
SHOULD PUT YOU TO SLEEP
- Bears at Packers
- Titans at Texans
- Dolphins at Jets
- 49ers at Cardinals
JUST WATCH RE-RUNS OF GOLDEN GIRLS
- Giants at Eagles
- Commanders at Cowboys
- Chargers at Raiders
WEATHER
It’s cold where it should be cold. Otherwise, nothing that’s really major.
- BRYCE YOUNG … I am all in on the Carolina Panthers today. Not just a Falcon hater here, I mean, I do hate the Panthers too my friends. Carolina is trending up and playing as well as Atlanta in the last few weeks — they just dont have the same amount of talent. Yet, we have a HC and a QB who are trending up and the offense is going to be able to have tie against the Falcons weak pass rush and average defense. Atlanta’s gonna push the pace and Carolina will do the same. This is the best gamestack spot.
- BAKER MAYFIELD … Baker is at the top of the list because not only is Tampa at home in a must win situation, but they’ve got all the advantages that you would want. Good weather, good OL vs DL match-up, running game should work well and of course the WR match-up with Mike Evans finally facing the Saints without Lattimore. This sets up to be a pretty straight path for Baker to finish with 250+ yards, 2+ TD as a floor game and potential to just blow the doors off with 300 and 4 TD.
- BO NIX … Second on the “go off” front is Bo Nix. The other team who just needs to win and get in, also at home, and technically facing a team who is just laying down. We know the Chiefs had a late flight out of KC last night because of weather and we know they have not much to really play for here. It’s not just who has to go up against Denver but also Denver probably getting a couple more possessions because of the Chiefs offensively just going through the motions.
Also in my pool this week:
Drake Maye, Geno Smith, Bryce Young, Michael Penix Jr.
- BIJAN ROBINSON … I don’t think Atlanta is going to just give to to Bijan, especially if in a close game late. But his floor cannot be overlooked
- JONATHAN TAYLOR
- KENNETH GAINWELL
- ISAAC GUERENDO
- RAHEEM BLACKSHEAR … My sleeper this week. He saw a tough Bucs defense last week in his true RB1 debut and now gets a much easier spot. If they are smart, they give him plenty of carries to showcase for next season if he has any value.
- MIKE EVANS … He will get his. He will score. He will be hard to match if you fade him.
- COURTLAND SUTTON … Has a high incentive target here as well and also they need to win. Sean Payton has a history of getting guys he likes their $ and it was well documented (by me really) how Sutton had 0 targets earlier this year and since then the Broncos made sure to get him his numbers each week. Payton’s going to get Sutton his 80+ yards that he needs. Its a fucking lock greater than the Evans lock.
- DRAKE LONDON
- ADAM THIELEN
- BROCK BOWERS … If you told me I had to pick one current NFL player to suit up as a hockey player it would be Bowers. He really strikes me as the type of guy who is going to show up next Wednesday asking if he can practice, run routes and play another game. Hey coach, can I suit up? He’s gonna ball out today for his usual line.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Seattle Seahawks
- Carolina Panthers
DFS CORE
Bryce Young
Bijan Robinson
Mike Evans
Courtland Sutton
Adam Thielen
BETTING CARD
Seattle -7
Philly -1.5
Panthers +7.5