We have a split slate today with a heavy set on the afternoon window and not too much of a difference between FD and DK. FanDuel has separated out the 1PM window games (Brewers/Mets, Tigers/White Sox) on to their own Very Early slate, while DraftKings went ahead and included them on their big Early slate which all total is nine games.
There will be no night slate article tonight – but a few notes at the end of this article covering thoughts on that one. I found I did MUCH worse when I did two slates on the same day the last 2-3 years.
WEATHER
I see no PPD risks today but a few windy spots, most notably in Cincinnati which is already a softball field to begin with.0
This is a fantastic set of names going today, but it’s a shame that we get them all together on their season debuts. If this was mid June we could really be making some tough decisions.
Young arms DL Hall and Jared Jones are both taking the bump making their first career pro starts. Young but experienced Grayson Rodriguez, Tanner Bibee, Hunter Greene are going to the mound. Max Fried vs Aaron Nola! Patrick Corbin is still pitching (in the aforementioned windy softball field) and look here fellas. It’s a double Asian Saturday with Kenta Maeda AND Yusei Kikuchi is BACK in our lives. I know everyone is stoked…
MY GUYS
GRAYSON RODRIGUEZ (DK: $7900, FD: $9200) … The Corbin Burnes show on Thursday was mostly Burnes but also a little bit of “Orioles Pitchers” because of the Adley effect. Grayson is going to become that elite consistent pitcher this season now that Burnes is there as well to mentor him and this Angels lineup, while they have Trout, they have my guy Nolan Ryan Schanuel, they’ve also got Aaron Hicks, Brandon Drury, Miguel Sano and a lot of strikeouts. Take GrayRod and enjoy the 5-6 IP with 6-8 strikeouts and a Win.
SETH LUGO (DK: $8300, FD: $8500) … I would not scream loudly if you wanted to use Joe Ryan for $1k more on the other side in this game, but we’ll trust the new Royal who is good vs RHH, doesn’t get blown up much and should see 6 righties today — which is the good part of the Twins lineup at the moment. Not a sexy spot, but a safe and clean one for a reasonable price.
TANNER BIBEE (DK: $9700, FD: $9700) … I suspect Bibee should be a chalky option, and since we have a massive discount on Grayson Rodriguez, it’s hard to not just take him against Oakland which looks to once again be an easy target for pitching.
OTHER SP THOUGHTS …
- Friends do not let friends use Max Fried before May. Thank you.
- We also do not let friends use rookie pitchers making their debuts, but Jared Jones is $7400 so I dont think anyone is tempted to use him — that said, the kid looks amazing.
- Either Severino beans Hoskins in his 1st AB or Hoskins takes him yard, then pimps around the bases and starts a massive brawl resulting in this game getting PPD.
- DL Hall is going to be good. The Mets are not good. But… *taps the sign above* … No.
REDS
There will come a day this year when I wake up and tell you to use Patrick Corbin that ONE time. That day isn’t until May, and last I checked, it’s nowhere close to May right now. Need to see the exact Reds lineup here, and they’re going to be a tricky stack because they’re very random in their production but circling around Cincinnati is the obvious chalk spot to use today.
ORIOLES
Gunnar Henderson, Ryan Mountcastle, Jordan Westburg, Cedric Mullins
Orioles. Every Slate. Thank you.
RAYS
Isaac Paredes, Richie Palacios, Harold Ramirez
They look terrible at the plate, but I would bite here against Kikuchi because he is so wild and when you combine the free swinging of the Rays with Kikuchi’s wild and hard contact upside we have a chance things blow up here.
CATCHER
- Henry Davis … This is going to be too easy if Davis remains in the low $3,000’s and catcher eligible on DraftKings — which he should as the Pirates are letting him play there finally. At a spot where we are happy to get a 5 for this price, this is a free square every day.
- Tyler Stephenson … Then again, sub 4k against Patrick Corbin in GABP isn’t bad either.
FIRST BASE
- Spencer Steer
- Isaac Paredes
- Rhys Hoskins … The pimp job is going to be EPIC
SECOND BASE
Absolute dumpster fire beyond Jonathan India.
- Jonathan India
- Adam Frazier
- Jordan Westburg
THIRD BASE
This is a VERY strong position and should produce some deep fly balls that hopefully go out today.
- Austin Riley
- Alec Bohm
- Jake Burger
SHORTSTOP
- Gunnar Henderson
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Willy Adames
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Harold Ramirez
- Cedric Mullins … Had a little bit of a down season in 2023, looks prime to bounce back.
- Lane Thomas
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Randy Arozarena
- Bryan Reynolds
- Riley Greene
- Jonathan India – 2B – Cincinnati Reds – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Austin Riley – 3B – Braves
- Tyler Stephenson – C – Reds
- Bobby Witt Jr. – SS – Royals
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. – OF – Marlins
- Cedric Mullins – OF – Orioles
- Randy Arozarena – OF – Jays
- Rhys Hoskins – 1B – Brewers
- BONUS ….. Alec Bohm – 3B – Phillies
TOP BETS (4-0, +4.4 units)
- Phillies ML (+114)
- Marlins ML (-115)
- Twins/Royals UNDER 8
NIGHT [7pm] SLATE THOUGHTS
- H.Brown, L.Gilbert, K.Crawford the top pitchers.
- Lance Lynn, in LA, vs the Dodgers? Sweet baby jesus. Freeman/Ohtani will produce, dont forget Muncy
- COL/ARI stack and move on? Tempting indeed. This is second best game.
- Cubs/Rangers sneaky third best game for offense. Really like the Cubs 1-4 hitters.
- Stroman pitches well for the Yanks
- Favorite Bet: Cubs ML