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MLB · March 28, 2024

The Dongers Club – Opening Day 2024

I am back.  We are back.  The thrill of Baseball is back.

I wrote about this a year ago, and maybe I will be writing it again come next season at this time, but I am nearing the end of my DFS writing days.  I am the type of person who admittedly puts way too much time into something when I am invested into it heavily, to the point that I created my own site, built a Dashboard, Optimizer, scraped data, setup automation and various other items for MLB, CFB, CBB, NBA, NHL, PGA and yes, way back in 2020 that fucking awesome KBO Dashboard.  Things that almost nobody else has built from scratch like I did, and why?  Well, because I wanted my own tools for doing my research and for playing.

But over time, my building of these tools and writing content has taken the place of actually just enjoying DFS as a hobby — which is what it always was supposed to be for me, and should be for many of you as well.  If we aren’t enjoying it, then whats the point?  And while I pounded my chest in the past about being reliable, consistent and always delivering content, I definitely realized last year (and truthfully the year before) that writing every day just isn’t worth it.

I was extremely close to completely walking away this year and telling everyone that you can keep your subscription for the dashboards at a lower price, because really the payments are here just to keep the lights on for the server(s) and also maybe to pay for a few beers for me every now and then.

But let’s be honest.  When that first Friday Wrigley home game hits, I’m going to be itching like hell to come in here and write up about some rookie pitcher being bad chalk that Friday night and why we should be attacking them with a late night Diamondbacks stack as the hammer.

So yeah….

And so the show goes on.

But there won’t be as many of those ‘early’ slate articles this year.  And some weekends might be thinner as well if the slates aren’t ideal.  I will not leave you in the blind each week with what is coming, but it’s going to be a better product for you, for me, and for well, maybe the Pirates too!

So let’s kick off the 2024 season, maybe a final ride in the Dongers Club?  And let’s get each and every one of you that big victory, a live final, or just a reason to spend your summer evenings with a cold one, looking out over the water, and wondering, why did this asshole tell me to stack the Marlins again???

And let’s be real.

There was no way I wasn’t writing on 3/28!

Let’s have a fantastic season, I am rejuvenated about Baseball with no lockout mess, no World Baseball Classic and … well, shoot, Rob Manfred is still around.  Ah, lets get on with the show folks.

SLATE BREAKDOWN

Did we get site synchronicity on Opening Day between DraftKings and FanDuel?

Absolutely not | Lol, Funny, Humor

But with two rain outs early (Braves/Phillies & Brewers/Mets), the only real impact is that the Angels and Orioles game is on FanDuel, void from DraftKings.  So there will be a quick footnote on that game in the Pitching and Hitting sections.  I am going back to balance between FanDuel & DraftKings this season, as last year I was way more heavy on DK.  I like FanDuel’s pricing honestly and hope they have decent contests like they used too (wishful thinking).

WEATHER

No issues on the remaining games, as we don’t have snow risks and no real PPD threats.  The wind is blowing out at Chicago, Kansas City and Cincinnati.

Early in the season we look for games in warm weather or dome spots and today you have two domes (Miami could be open & Tampa Bay) and two kinda warm weather spots in San Diego and Los Angeles — but neither is in the 80’s, so it’s actually irrelevant today.

 

Tarik Skubal has found the groove in 2022 - Bless You BoysTARIK SKUBAL (DK: $9100, FD: $10.1k)

Skubal comes in as one of the top up and coming pitchers in the game, leading a Detroit team that is well coached and projected in my mind to be a .500+ ball club this season.  His top pitches hold opponents under a .200 avg and when he is on you can expect a near 40% strikeout rate.

Add in that he gets to face the St. Helen of the Blessed Shroud Orphanage’s Baseball team today and I am clear to roll Skubal as the top DraftKings pitcher.  I expect 5+ IP with a strikeout per inning, limited walks and win potential here.  On Opening Day, you don’t chase a 7 or 8 inning start, that is stupid, you take risk avoidance.

ZACH EFLIN (DK: $7300, FD: $8500)

In every sport I have provided advice for I always stress that early in the year you should ride what you believe a teams projection is going to be for the season when that projection is a little contrarian.

I believe Toronto is a BAD team this year.  Their offense isn’t the entire weakness here, but it’s one which I am not scared of them trying to add some really aging veterans to back up Vlad and Bo.  And until Varsho proves it and Spring can stay healthy, I am fine attacking this lineup — especially with a veteran like Eflin who will know how to pitch on Opening Day & is at home.

PABLO LOPEZ (DK: 9300, FD: $9700)

There will be plenty of times when I am way too optimistic about the Royals offense, but the annual tradition of them raking in Arizona in the Spring and then coming back to Kauffman and getting shutout should continue here.  Lopez is too good to have a short outing, and once he finds his goove he should cruise to potentially record the most outs out of every starting pitcher going today.

 

OTHER SP THOUGHTS …

  • I project that Luzardo, is your top PT/$ projection pitcher, but that Pittsburgh lineup is not the same everyone is used too.  the Cruz-Reynolds-Hayes trio are going to be dangerous and Henry Davis gives them a rising star at the bottom of the order.
  • Hearing buzz about Garrett Crochet as a value SP2 on DraftKings.  Please, God, No.
  • Love ya Ragans.  But too volatile here.

 

YANKEES

Gleyber Torres, Juan Soto

One of the biggest off-season moves is one that nobody is going to talk about.  Martin Maldanado leaving Houston means that virtually every SP in that rotation who has been there for more than a minute is working with Yainer Diaz full time for first time.  Most catchers really don’t matter, Maldanado though was one who does and this is gonna take time + Valdez really hasn’t been the same guy for quite a while now.

Road team, good stadium, a lineup ready to prove something while their pitching falls apart.  Lets drink the Yankee bleach early.

REDS

Spencer Steer, Jonathan India

Clearly the best stadium on the slate for offense, a terrible opposing pitching staff from top to bottom and Opening Day in Cincinnati.  What more could one ask for than a Spencer Steer 3 run homer?

MARLINS

Jazz Chisholm, Josh Bell, Bryan De La Cruz

My Marlins?  My Pirates?  My kinda game.  Someone unfortunately is not going to start 3-0 between these two teams who I have as the breakout teams in the first half this year.  The Marlins offense is full of a few castaways (Bell, Anderson, Avi Garcia) and honestly I think they fit the remaining pieces quite well.  Jazz is the star of this show and he has plenty of good veterans around him to make him the type who puts up double digit scores every game just by getting on base, scoring, stealing and knocking a HR out or two….

 

CATCHER

  1. Keibert Ruiz
  2. Will Smith … Never pay for catchers before May, but when the guy gets a new deal, we throw him a bone.
  3. Tyler Stephenson

 

FIRST BASE

I’m really testing the fate of this position this season by starting Opening Day off with not one, but two Spencer’s.  Hey, Mike Zunino retired, so we gotta find a new nemesis in the Dongers Club.  Which one will it be?

  1. Spencer Steer
  2. Spencer Torkelson
  3. Freddie Freeman

 

SECOND BASE

  1. Gleyber Torres
  2. Jonathan India
  3. Luis Arraez

 

THIRD BASE

  1. Jake Burger
  2. KeBryan Hayes
  3. Royce Lewis

 

SHORTSTOP

It’s a blah spot today, but fireworks from the young stars is to be expected here.

  1. Elly De La Cruz
  2. Oneil Cruz
  3. CJ Abrams

 

OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore

  1. Jazz Chisholm Jr.
  2. Randy Arozarena
  3. Juan Soto
  4. Chas McCormick

 

OUTFIELD – Value

  1. Eddie Rosario
  2. Parker Meadows
  3. Bryan De La Cruz

 

  1. Jazz Chisholm Jr – OF – Miami Marlins – Chairman of The Dongers Club
  2. Spencer Steer – 1B – Reds
  3. Keibert Ruiz – C – Nationals
  4. Gleyber Torres – 2B – Yankees
  5. Jake Burger – 3B – Marlins
  6. Oneil Cruz – SS – Pirates
  7. Randy Arozarena – OF – Rays
  8. Eddie Rosario – OF – Nationals
  9. BONUS ………………. Juan Soto – OF – Yankees

 

The 1-2-3 for the Dodgers is going to be a likely spot I don’t push too much this season.  You don’t need any advice to hear that any of them are looking good, because that’s a tough haul for any pitcher to get through.  I never fear ownership in MLB and certainly not opening day.  This is a decent 3-3-1-1 type stack slate because you do need one team to carry your lineup today.

Enjoy Amatuers Day for MLB DFS, play who you want.

TOP BETS

We take Dogs until May.

  • Yankees ML +130
  • Pirates/Marlins OVER 7.5
  • Evening Parlay:  Red Sox + Rockies ML Parlay

 

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