Welcome to a six game NHL slate today. There are no teams playing B2B tonight.
This sets up as the type of slate where you should consider ‘leverage’ or pivoting off chalk ownership. The top team is the Kings for sure, which I break down the approach there. After that, however, I can make a case for about 5 or 6 different teams. So with high variance likely we shouldn’t just immediately go onto the ‘next team’ based on the Vegas data or ownership.
PREDATORS
O’Reilly, Forsberg, Nyquist, Josi
As I mentioned above, the ‘next tier’ teams are the Canucks, Penguins, Panthers, Knights and Devils…. But I’m gonna look here at Nashville, who will face a Barkov-less Florida team going on the road having taken lots of penalties of late and not doing a great job killing them off. Going contrarian in DFS usually works best when you can do it with a “STAR” type player to carry the lineup at low ownership and so we’re getting that here with Forsberg and Josi. Pairing this with Kings value and some other good value on this slate could really pay off.
LA KINGS
There’s so many ways to look at the Kings tonight. The value on the top line with PLD, Kopitar and Kempe is great. But so too is the price on the second line and we have better goal scoring options on the wings with Kevin Fiala and Trevor Moore. The Kings have 5 PPG over their last five games and the Sharks are 31st in the league on the PK. There’s a PP goal in there tonight and likely would be a good time to buy into the Kings PP1 stack or just take value one offs here.
PP1: Kopitar, Kempe, Fiala, Doughty
Value One Off: Pierre-Luc Dubois
POSITIONAL RANKINGS
CENTERS
- Ryan O’Reilly
- Anze Kopitar
- Evgeni Malkin
- Nico Hischier
WINGS
- Filip Forsberg
- Kevin Fiala / Adrian Kempe
- Gustav Nyquist
- Clayton Keller – Another contrarian winger to look at
- Jonathan Marchessault
- Sam Reinhart
DEFENSE
Not a terrible slate to go with 3 Defenseman.
- Roman Josi
- Drew Doughty
- Brandon Montour
- Seth Jones
- Simon Nemec – Value
Good Value
Pavel Dorofeyev, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Lars Eller, Drew O’Connor
- Logan Thompson – Knights
- Jeremy Swayman – Bruins
- Petr Mrazek – Blackhawks … Contrarian against chalky Canucks
LINE LOCK(S) OF THE NIGHT:
- O’Reilly, Forsberg, Nyquist, Josi (Predators)
FAVORITE ONE OFF STUD FORWARDS:
- Obviously Forsberg, but outside of him in a full stack it’s probably Clayton Keller
FAVORITE ONE OFF VALUE:
- Pierre-Luc Dubois
BETS:
- Knights/Devils under 6.5
- Nashville ML
- Sharks/Kings over 5.5
PROPS:
0-3 yesterday, oof. That almost never happens. Lets smash today.
- Kevin Fiala over 2.5 (-175) … Parlay with Jonathan Marchessault over 2.5 (-166)
- Brandon Montour over 2.5
- Filip Forsberg over 3.5