WEATHER NOTES
- Rain all game long between the Chargers and Patriots
- Rain all game long between the Falcons and Jets
FAVORITE GAMES
This slate is what it is. The 49ers/Eagles and Dolphins/Commanders games are the ones which are clearly the best spots and with the most upside in terms of getting a team who could drop a 30 point spot. But I wouldn’t just auto stack those spots and ignore everything else. It doesn’t feel like a game stack week to me.
Happy “QB doesn’t matter” week – tm Steve Renner.
I can see it now, there wont be any QB who is higher than 2% owned that is going “off” this week. Just take what you want, get yourself 18-20 fpts and be happy. If you do want to take a risk on a QB then go ahead, but don’t be worried about the ‘chalk’ guys — which is Purdy, Tua & Wilson
THE AMBUSH PLAY
Jared Goff (DK: $6500, FD: $7600) … The Saints will once again be without Marshon Lattimore and continue to have a fading pass-rush. The rush defense is slowly falling apart as well which is a cause for concern with Goff losing out on some touchdowns, but I also trust him in any dome environment & wouldn’t be shocked to see a 3 TD performance after a really shockingly bad Thanksgiving outing 10 days ago. Detroit is dropping a 30+ spot today.
REST OF THE LIST
- CJ Stroud … His price is a discouraging factor yes, but why are we not looking at Stroud who is having a gem of a season? Sure, Denver’s been improved on defense and is slowing games down but they’re also coming out after some easy home wins and going to an environment that should hurt their defense. Stroud is the play over Russ Wilson on FD.
- Bryce Young … Really hard to not like Young at a sub 5k price in a funnel game vs Tampa. New coaches have generally resulted in the team playing better as well, so we can ride that theory here.
- Joe Flacco … Go broke or go home? Go old? Look, the Browns are gonna win. Flacco will throw for 200 yards, 1 score and … well, on a week where I feel QB really doesn’t matter it doesn’t hurt to just drop down to sub 5k for the ageless wonder who is coming in to give the Browns a shot (they’re winning BTW).
Sooo much value being hyped up here with Jaylen Warren, Zack Moss and Rachaad White being the top 3 candidates in that department.
THE AMBUSH PLAYS
- Rachaad White … Easy button, next. There’s too easy of a path for 60-70 yards and a touchdown, which you might agree is not much for a chalky player, but that’s the floor. As in, the first half floor.
- Austin Ekeler … New England’s defense ranks 22nd in opposing rushing touchdowns and the offense is likely to give the Chargers many short fields. It sets up for Ekeler to have a get right game and find the endzone twice.
REST OF THE LIST
- Alvin Kamara … I know Olave will suit up, but Carr should be ready to check down all game to Kamara. Receptions and a favorable spot vs Detroit in a game I think has fast possessions will benefit Kamara to have a solid game. Yes, there is the Jammal Williams revenge game narrative, but I am not sure the Saints even know that.
- Jahmyr Gibbs … I am opting for Gibbs over Montgomery because I like Goff here and would want the correlation obviously for Gibbs catching it and trying to be Alvin Kamara 2.0 in the Kamara vs Gibbs game.
- Jaylen Warren … Nobody has been worse over the last month against RB than the Cardinals, a lot skewed by Kyren Williams a week ago, but they’re also running into an offense in Pittsburgh that’s feeling better and should run it a lot with a Thursday game looming next week.
THE AMBUSH PLAYS
- AJ Brown (DK: $8800, FD: $8400) … Scream and yell all you want too about the Eagles secondary funneling points to opposing WR, but hey, the Niners aren’t far behind. In fact, they are only one spot ahead of Philly in that department. Hurts isn’t going to run it as much here, he would be stupid to do so with that knee hurting and the Niners out for blood. This is a passing game for Philly and my weekly get Brown and Smith wrong adventure has me landing on AJ Brown. Big game coming and with tons of QB and RB value, we can pay up on WR without fear.
- Jameson Williams (DK: $3600) … Speed still kills the Saints secondary. Throw on top that Jameson will get matchups against the Saints DB backups and we’re going to have a big play or two here that easily smashes his $3600 price on DraftKings.
SAFE CORE OPTIONS
- Brandon Aiyuk (DK: $7200, FD: $8000) … Easily the favorite option in my mind for the Niners against Philly. He’s going to be able to get open frequently.
- Michael Pittman (DK: $7100, FD: $7900) … Zack Moss? Cmon guys, has everyone just not learned we don’t play RB against the Titans, especially chalky RB against the Titans? This is the Pittaman show for Indy today.
- Amari Cooper (DK: $5700) … Cooper has the 6th highest xTGT% today based on my model and is facing a middle of the pack pass defense against WR. With Flacco in, we shouldn’t expect a HIGH volume, but Flacco is no moron, he’s going to throw it to Cooper when he does pass.
- Adam Theilen / Jonathan Mingo … Mingo’s volume and trust is just too low and Theilen’s price is a little too high. But one of these guys will get in the box for Bryce Young today
- Jerry Jeudy (DK: $4700)
VALUE
- Jameson Williams
- Jonathan Mingo
I really hate everything about this TE slate, which lends to just coming out and punting this position to double pay up at WR as well….
THE AMBUSH PLAY
- Chig Okonkwo (DK: $3100, FD: $4800) … Chiggy got 5 targets last week and is in line for another similar type volume today. The matchup is nice.
REST OF THE LIST
- Trey McBride
- Brevin Jordan … Well, I like Houston to win. We like CJ Stroud to only throw it and Jordan is only $2500 against a really bad defense vs TE.
- Hunter Henry
Guys, I fear we have the week where about 4 different defenses score touchdowns…
- Cleveland Browns
- L.A. Chargers
- Detroit Lions
AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
Most overlooked player(s): AJ BROWN – Eagles
The Ambush CORE: Goff, White, Brown, Williams
Favorite Pay Up Spots: WR
Game Stacks:
- Lions/Saints
Favorite Bets:
- Lions/Saints OVER 47.5
- Titans ML
- Browns +3.5, Browns ML
Upset Calls:
- Browns over Rams