WEATHER
It’s mostly rain, there is some wind in the Titans/Browns game, but not enough for me to be overly concerned about changing thoughts on that game. Most of the rain spots are going to appear bad given the Saturday rain in the same areas, but they all should be tapering off around game time.
UPDATE: Zero concerns from a weather standpoint for IND/BAL and BUF/WSH. Proceed as normal spots.
LATE INJURY NEWS
The biggest TBD for me is Isiah Pacheco, it obviously brings Jerick McKinnon into play if he sits.
Quarterback feels very open this week. Last week we rode a huge game from Russell Wilson and he was an easy contrarian pick for me. This week though it’s feeling like a pay up at Quarterback week, but not without some risk. This would of course come down to Mahomes, Allen, Jackson and Herbert in that higher $ tier. Herbert being the most chalky one of that group and not a bad pick. But my lean this week is going to be on someone who we’re starting to forget about….
THE AMBUSH PLAY
LAMAR JACKSON (DK: $7700, FD: $8200) … So Baltimore is really banged up and if they weren’t playing the Colts off a win I would think there’s a risk of an upset here. They’ll pull it off, and there will be some points here too. Lamar went from 8 carries in week 1 to 12 last week and is even more likely to run it more again this week. If we’re searching for a pay-up guy to give us upside, his rushing TD and the TD pass to Andrews will be a quick way to get there.
OTHERS I LIKE (for DFS)…
DESHAUN WATSON (DK: $6100, FD: $7500) … He’s gonna rush one in for a score, although I was going to make him the #1 play at QB this week before my senses came over me in regards to the weather and just the lack of upside of this game overall. The Titans are once again a heavy funnel to the pass, which will mean a good day for Amari Cooper if he stays on the field and likely a big day for Donovan Peoples-Jones/Elijah Moore potential. All this leads back to Watson having a great chance at a 20+ DFS day.
JUSTIN HERBERT (DK: $7500, FD: $8400) … There’s a ton of hype around this game, and I really like the Chargers to defensively play well vs the Vikings this week, limiting the high octane flow everyone else is expecting here.
DESMOND RIDDER (DK: $5000, FD: $7000) … You won’t see me on Ridder much this season because honestly there isn’t much point. He is too inconsistent and they have too much emphasis on going through the ground game to expect him to dominate in a game. That said, the overall tempo/pace on this game should be ideal and the $5k price tag is one that cannot be ignored here either.
THE AMBUSH PLAYS
TONY POLLARD (DK: $8000, FD: $9400) … Every day I have woken up and just seen visions of Tony Pollard catching a pass or getting a toss sweep and running for 50+ yards and a touchdown, then Brandin Cooks scores and then its back to Pollard. 150 and 2 TD potential here.
JAHMYR GIBBS (DK: $6600, FD: $7000) … Welcome to Gibbs week 2023. Atlanta’s LB are the weakness and covering a back out of the backfield with Gibbs talent is going to present a challenge for them. The DB are playing well so downgrade St. Brown which helps Gibbs usage even more
TRAVIS ETIENNE (DK: $6900, FD: $8000) … Likely among the highest owned RB today and for good reason as a home favored RB vs a low tier rush defense. Etienne and the Jaguars offense played hokey-pokey it felt like with the Chiefs a week ago and now the pressure should be less against Houston. Give us a TD and normal usage and we’ll be content.
TIER 2 PLAYS / VALUE
KENDRE MILLER (DK: $4300, FD: $4600) … Just a ton of value here, as I expect Miller to see 10-12 carries and 3-4 touches in the passing game too. The Saints are thin at RB this week and so the debut of Miller is going to come at the perfect time against a defense that’s much easier to run on than pass on. Honestly he has an equal matchup to Joshua Kelly and is much cheaper. New Orleans also will not utilize Taysom as much this week, you can take that to the bank.
JOSHUA KELLY (DK: $5400, FD: $6100) … No Ekeler, no quality rush defense for the Vikes, no reason to not expect Kelly to do some work here with the expected volume. Is this a must own chalk? Absolutely not.
RHAMONDRE STEVENSON (DK: $6700, FD: $6500) … It could be sunny out and the Pats would likely still want to lean on the ground and pound game. I am highly unlikedly to recommend Zeke Elliott at any point this year, but I’ll take a gamble on Stevenson this week.
ALSO DONT MIND
- Kenneth Walker
- Miles Sanders: The shift to Dalton could help them sustain some drives, but really Sanders is gonna have to break off a big one (not really his game) somewhere here to pay off.
THE AMBUSH PLAYS
STEFON DIGGS (DK: $8100, FD: $8000) … Diggs returns to his home area & if the rain holds off he is the one guy who can supplant the two studs above in the pay up range at WR. Projections have his ownership down below 10%. One big reason could certainly be the weather, but by 1:30 at the latest I think it will be cleared out and hopefully Washington keeps the field covered as well as they can overnight and into the morning. I don’t believe the Bills will have much luck on the ground and likely will be trailing a good amount today. If he doesn’t have 12+ targets, he will be yelling at Josh Allen by halftime and the Bills season is done.
AMARI COOPER (DK: $5700, FD: $6200) … Cooper is clearly the guy for DeShaun Watson and the lack of depth to run it this week is going to open up more passing attempts. If you aren’t projecting 10 targets for Cooper you are underestimating things greatly.
THE STUDS
JUSTIN JEFFERSON & TYREEK HILL … I don’t need to mention their prices, and I shouldn’t have to mention the obvious on both here either. You get Hill without Waddle and honestly in a game script where I think Miami is in a competitive game with Denver + you get Jefferson likely seeing as many targets as possible throughout the game and all he does is go over 100+ yards every week. With value at RB2 and TE, having one or both is viable.
MIKE WILLIAMS (DK: $6000, FD: $7200) … This is mostly a gut call on who you like Allen or Williams. The Vikings do have some size to contend with Williams, but even with the price difference making him more popular I do see him outperforming Keenan because this isn’t a volume game IMO, this is a quality game.
THE DIAMONDS (VALUE)
BRANDIN COOKS – $5200 … I wouldn’t use Cooks naked, but rather in a Dak-Pollard-Cooks full Dallas score 40 points stack.
JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA – $4300 … Metcalf is going to be cleared to go, but with Jaycee Horn still out there’s value in attacking Carolina’s secondary.
JAHAN DOTSON – $4900 … Nice run it back with Diggs & Washington will put up some offense here.
SUB $4K VALUE
MACK HOLLINS – $3500 … I think there is something here with Ridder and Hollins, probably because Hollins can catch balls above his head when Ridder throws ducks.
JUWAN JOHNSON (DK: $3500, FD: $5000) … All it took was two quiet weeks for everyone to jump off the Juwan Johnson bandwagon. Foster Moreau has been officially downgraded to OUT for New Orleans and Taysom Hill is likely a little bit limited this week and only used in the running game. This is going to be a very good spot for Juwan Johnson to haul 5+ receptions and likely a red zone target or two. I am bumping him up into TE #1 this week.
MARK ANDREWS (DK: $6000, FD: $7400) …While they have a ton of guys injured (Dobbins obviously, Beckham, Hill), the one steady in this offense is cleared to go and should be 10-15% tops. Mark Andrews week ladies and Gentlemen as I don’t see a Ravens touchdown that doesn’t involve Lamar or Andrews this week.
EVAN ENGRAM (DK: $4800, FD: $5900) … Another year, another funnel for the Texans defense which cannot guard quality TE. If it’s not Etienne then I expect Engram to score in the red zone.
SAM LaPORTA (DK: $4000, FD: $5200) … Hell, no, I am not writing up Kyle Pitts. But I sure as heck like the other side at a cheap $4k spot here. We can go cheap on Defense (with risk), at RB2 and here at TE this week allowing for paying up for someone like Lamar or one of the big name WR who should see a million targets.
This is one of those weeks where you REALLY dislike the D/ST position. Up top a high $ team like the Cowboys or Chiefs is in a perfect spot to snag one (or two) defensive scores – but also some cheap ones are in decent spots, its a very tough spot this week.
Cleveland Browns (DK: $3300, FD: $4300) … Not sure how Tennessee scores this week. The Browns front will demolish Tannehill anytime he tries to pass and the Browns are trending upwards against the rush. But even if they do load up on Henry/Spears then that just chews clock and eventually Cleveland is gonna get their sacks when Tannehill does drop back.
Seattle Seahawks (DK: 3200, FD: $4200) … Dalton will be okay in my mind. But he is still Andy Dalton and this is still a weak OL that Seattle gets to feast upon.
LA Chargers (DK: $2700, FD: $3600) … It would not shock me AT ALL if both defenses perform decently here. I think everyone has this game a little bit wrong and it won’t be a massive shootout. Great ownership pivot here by not rocking a full game stack too.
AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
Most overlooked player: Lamar Jackson to Mark Andrews. The 2 TE build this week is very contrarian but we have some great value at TE overall.
Favorite Core Builds:
Updated CORE:
- RB: Jahmyr Gibbs
- WR: Amari Cooper
- TE: Juwan Johnson
Favorite Pay Up
- Lamar Jackson, Stefon Diggs
Game Stacks
- Texans/Jaguars
Favorite Bets
- Browns -3.5
- Washington +6
- Chargers ML
Upset Calls
- Washington
WINNERS OF THE WEEK
Ravens, Browns, Lions, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Chargers, Patriots, Commanders, Seahawks, Cowboys, Chiefs
SNF – Raiders