Another week with a bunch of lopsided match-ups and out of conference games. Maybe I am getting old but I really felt like by Week 3 we would be getting less of this. It’s a little better this week, but still a couple teams I wouldn’t care to see on the MAIN slate.
- Chance of rain in the Alabama/South Florida game.
- Windy between FSU/Boston College — I have a STRONG play I love in this game at the very bottom of the article.
LSU vs Mississippi State
It’s a Noon (11am Central) start but trust me – this game will get there in the end. Look for an in game over even if it starts off with a 3-0 type first quarter start.
LSU will have no running game with their RB this week, although we might see a touchdown from Logan Diggs I would trust the bulk to come from Jayden Daniels and he’ll connect with Nabers and possibly Thomas both. LSU had their ‘feel good about ourselves’ demolishment of Grambling State last week 72-10, now they come out and have to keep up the scoring with their defense which should struggle again.
… and that leads me into the Bulldogs side, the ‘fantastic’ value on this slate. Will Rodgers, Joq Marks and Lideatrick Griffin — all from a DraftKings value standpoint stand out as a top stack this week.
- LSU: Daniels, Nabers
- MissSt: Rogers, Marks, Griffin
Western Kentucky vs Ohio State
Marvin Harrison Jr is injured but expected to play. Ohio State is depressed offensively, but expected to explode. Insert the Hilltoppers, who have the better QB right now in Austin Reed from a DFS standpoint. Yes, I would go heavy on both sides if going here.
For the Buckeyes, a key decision is figuring out do we back the passing or ground game. The ground spot looks nice on paper vs WKU, but I think you use this chance to get McCord going with back to back 3+ TD games.
- WKU: Reed, Corley, Poindexter
- OSU: McCord, Egbuka
Tulane vs Southern Miss
I always tend to look for that 3:30 PM window game which could go off and Tulane/So. Miss in a very underrated rivalry stands out in a big way. Tulane QB decision is big here, if Pratt goes then we know what we have there, but if not I think Horton could do just fine in his second straight start. You can run on Southern Miss, Makhi Hughes is getting 5.13 YPC and at $4600 is one of the better values today.
- Makhi Hughes – RB – Tulane
- Frank Gore – RB – South Miss
CORE OPTIONS
- Nate Johnson – Utah – $4500 … Just a massive discount here as Nate Johnson could likely draw another start vs a weak opponent without Cam Rising. So with his running ability and a weak opponent, there isn’t really much more to say other than are you fine with a QB at $4500 as 80% chalk? To which I say, sure, lets roll.
- Jayden Daniels – LSU – $8600 … As noted above I think this game could start slow but it will get there in the end & with LSU over that FSU debacle we’ll see Daniels deliver here. No reason to not expect him to finish with a 20+ spot today and have 35+ upside if he rushes a couple in himself.
ALSO CONSIDER
- Kyle McCord – Ohio State – $9400
- Austin Reed – Western Kentucky – $5500
- Will Rogers – Miss St – $7300
CORE OPTIONS
- JoQuavious Marks – Miss St – $6800 … Best point for $ play here given his expected volume
- Braelon Allen – Wisconsin – $7500 … Allen is going to have to put together a string of dominant games here pretty soon before we continue to crown his ass just because he is ‘young’ and a Wisconsin RB. So my patience is wearing thin and if he doesn’t burst off for 150 and 2 TD you might not see him listed here again for a while.
- Audic Estime – Notre Dame – $7800 … System play. ND RB’s always seem to score & he has 4 TD already on the season, so we’ll take the 6 points plus another 8 to 12 depending upon the total usage and game flow of this game to make him a solid safe plug and play option.
FLEX OPTIONS
- Kyle Robichaux – Boston College – $4700 … Pat Garwo is likely OUT for B.C. and all they’re going to do is pound the rock. Yes, FSU has been good against the run so far but I just hate this spot for them and if Robichaux is going to get 15+ touches at this price & at home we could see him pay off very well as another value option.
- Nicholas Singleton – Penn State – $6300
- Frank Gore Jr – So Miss – $5000
- Makhi Hughes – Tulane – $4600
CORE OPTIONS
- Emeka Egbuka – The Ohio State – $7800 … Zig/Zag scenario off Marvin Harrison Jr. Can’t argue with either one, but if the OSU passing game will get going heavily then Egbuka is going to have 2 touchdowns today.
- Malachi Corley – WKU – $4700 … Corley returns and given his usage in this offense he should be a $7000 WR. Some will say Nate Johnson is the best value on the board, they are wrong, it’s Corley.
- Malik Nabers – LSU – $7300 … Can make similar argument to the Ohio State WR duo here with Brian Thomas as a second option as well, but in this case LSU being on the road I think we trust the true #1 for the passing game in Nabers.
- Lideatrick Griffin – Miss St – $5700
SLEEPER PICKS
- Brock Bowers – Georgia – $4700 … Hard to call the best TE in the country a sleeper at this price, but it appears he will be.
- Jalon Calhoun – Duke – $5400
DEEP BUILD / STACKS
- Luther Burden – Mizzou – $5900
- Brian Thomas – LSU – $7000
DRAFTKINGS CORE OPTIONS
QB: Jayden Daniels (LSU)
RB: JoQuavios Marks (MSST)
WR: Malachi Corley (WKU)
WR: Emeka Egbuka (OSU)
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION
Wide Receiver is the deepest position today. With Corley being a decent value himself and Bowers in that range too you could go 5 WR today and pivot off the Nate Johnson chalk value which will drive most to have 2 QB in their lineups.
BETS
- Boston College +24.5 … Double your normal allocation on this one. Love BC to cover, maybe even lead at the half or pull off a big upset.
- Illinois +14
- South Carolina +27
- Southern Miss +11.5