No clue why but this has a nostalgic feel for me today. I think it’s because there are almost no late games so it feels like a throw back to when Sunday MLB DFS was the entire slate of games, yes, I am old.
Pitching Openers today
- Josh Winckowski opening before Nick Pivetta vs NYY
- Jake Junis opening before Sean Manaea vs ATL
- Ryan Borsucki opening before Osvaldi Bido vs MIN
WEATHER
I see no issues today
MAX SCHERZER
DK: $11000, FD: $10900
Historically Max has had problems with the Brewers lineup, but this is a new Max pitching with energy and on an absolute tear in his new uniform down in Texas.
LOGAN ALLEN
DK: $8800, FD: $9100
Detroit’s hitting just .204 with a 30% strikeout rate against LHP over the last week and Javy Baez just homered yesterday. He won’t homer again today even though it is Sunday and that’s usually his best day.
MAX FRIED
DK: $9900, FD: $9800
From 72 pitches to 79 pitches and then 83 pitches despite allowing 8 hits in his last start. Max #2 is a little overpriced here because he’s trending towards an 88 or 90 pitch outing with 5 hits allowed and 5 strikeouts, not quite enough to push Scherzer off the top spot but also a limited damage scenario against the Giants.
SUNDAY SLEEPER(s)
We’re not gonna use any sleepers here today on the pitching front. The only ‘bad’ pitchers who I could see pitching better than expectations are Dallas Keuchel and Carlos Carrasco, neither of whom I would feel comfortable with using but if you had to pay down it would be Cookies Carrasco because at least he could pull out 5 or 6 strikeouts. Keuchel’s facing a team struggling with LHP of late, but he just is an innings eater at best for the Twins and hasn’t shown to have anything left in his two spot starts for them.
Clarke Schmidt probably has the best ‘arm talent’ of anyone under $8000 on DraftKings who isn’t facing the Atlanta Braves (yes, this is a Jake Junis comment), so I get if you want to justify him, but I would rather trust Matt Ryan with a 28-3 lead than anything associated with the Yankees right now.
Among the openers Sean Manaea and Osvaldo Bido are both fairly cheap and can deliver 2x. Bido is very risky IMO and Manaea vs the Braves is mostly a contrarian/leverage spot. Pivetta against NYY should be a little popular, but I want no part.
OTHER PITCHING NOTES
- Hunter Brown and Emerson Hancock both should pitch well, but the Mariners reduced K% of late has me shying away from Hunter Brown.
- Hunter Greene and Hyun-Jin Ryu both likely have rough early innings and are still limited in their PC.
CHICAGO CUBS
Tauchman, Happ, Bellinger, Swanson
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Chicago has hit well at home most of the season — especially in day games, and Jordan Lyles has sucked most of the season — especially in games played on planet Earth. Just about every Cub that I roll through today has signs pointing to some big hits, so go all in with them.
NY METS
LIndor, Nimmo, McNeil
Don’t look now but the Mets are actually hitting well of late. Playing the Cardinals certainly is a big benefit here too and this has always been a decent sinker-ball hitting team.
JAYS / REDS
Belt, Springer, Kirk … Steer
Hunter Greene is back on the mound for the Reds, so if the Jays are going to do something it’s gonna have to be a big first inning where they draw some walks and either Belt or Vladdy delivers a big hit, but the nice value in Toronto’s lineup is Springer-Kirk-Varsho part of the order.
Hyun-Jin Ryu should NOT mow down the Reds, but he should survive for 5 innings by mixing his off-speed in enough to give De La Cruz and CES problems. Look for a Spencer Steer 2 run homer though to be enough to justify some Reds exposure.
I like the over in this game.
CATCHER
- Salvador Perez
- Jonah Heim
- Alejandro Kirk
FIRST BASE
While Matt Olson against Jake Junis 1st AB feels like an easy spot, I do not think it’s the obvious matchup you feel with a LHP vs Junis. The way Olson has a long swing, he needs the ball out over the plate and Junis will prefer to try and leave it down and in. The lefties you want on Atlanta are guys like Harris and Rosario and sadly no Ozzie Albies because he could hit a HR off Junis with his eyes closed.
- Cody Bellinger
- Jake Bauers
- Brandon Belt
SECOND BASE
I would try to not overspend here at 2B today. If Jordan Lyles goes off the rails and the Royals roll out rough bullpen options then Nico Hoener likely hitting 2nd for the Cubs probably is the smartest play, but as an isolated $5400 bat I think you are better off punting 2B.
- Jonathan Arauz
- Nico Hoerner
- Michael Massey
THIRD BASE
- Jose Ramirez
- Spencer Steer
- Rafael Devers … Devers in Yankee Stadium = Babe F’n Ruth.
SHORTSTOP
Great spot for two SS on FanDuel today. Death. Taxes. Lindor against NL Central teams. He’s 6 for 10 in the series and doubled yesterday — the HR comes today. Witt/Swanson/Seager will be above 12 DK FPTS as well, it’s a loaded top heavy spot.
- Francisco Lindor
- Bobby Witt’s Son.
- Dansby Swanson
- Corey Seager
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Ian Happ
- Julio Rodriguez
- Adolis Garcia
- George Springer
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Michael Harris II / Eddie Rosario … Either, both, gotta have one of them going yard off Junis.
- Joey Gallo
- Tommy Edman
- Brandon Nimmo
OUTFIELD – Value
- Mike Tauchman
- MJ Melendez
- Jordan Walker
- Francisco Lindor – SS – Mets – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Michael Harris II – OF – Braves
- Mike Tauchman – OF – Cubs
- Cody Bellinger – 1B – Cubs
- Salvador Perez – C – Royals
- Ian Happ – OF – Cubs
- Jose Ramirez – 3B – Guardians
- Michael Massey – 2B – Royals
- BONUS …. Spencer Steer – OF – Reds
BEST OVER POTENTIAL
Royals/Cubs
Jays/Reds
BEST UNDER POTENTIAL
Giants/Braves
Mariners/Astros
BEST UNDERDOG ML
Mariners