Five night games today behind all the fireworks, including the return of Tarik Skubal and Juan Soto talking trash against Shohei Ohtani.
WEATHER
Everything is clear. The game in PETCO is a 6:40 EST start which means 3:40 Pacific out there. Should be a game with the ball carrying a little more and creating the potential for a nice LAA/SD contrarian exposure. I wouldn’t go too heavy but there are specific hitters I like to go yard in that game.
THE TOP SP MATCHUP
Joe Musgrove vs Shohei Ohtani
No doubt Ohtani will strikeout 6-7 Padres tonight, but he likely gives up a bomb to Tatis (not Soto) and the pitch count gets up high enough that you can get by without him.
Musgrove, on the other hand, has more blow up potential IMO even though he is always great at home. I will avoid both though and go with a full Blue Jays stack tonight…
SP RANKINGS
- Chris Bassitt
- Shohei Ohtani
- Tarik Skubal
- Emmet Sheehan
ANGELS vs PADRES
I mentioned some Angels, here is the build. Ward, Moustakas, Renfroe.
The Padres is Tatis and Ha-Seong Kim
ATHLETICS vs TIGERS
Nothing major on Oakland’s side. Skubal isn’t the best spot to get cute with Oakland. Brent Rooker is your key Oakland hitter to look at.
I want no part of the Tigers either. Their K% has dropped vs LHP of late, but really they only make sense if you go with Ohtani/Musgrove to get cheaper hitters in, they’ll cool off coming away from Coors.
BLUE JAYS vs WHITE SOX
LOVE Toronto and expect them to be my #1 team tonight. Bichette, Springer, Vladdy and Varsho.
Zero White Sox love from me today
BRAVES vs GUARDIANS
Back to the Eddie Rosario well today. Atlanta really pops off on the model, shocker I know. If they can win their last 5 games before the break they would go into the break on a 28-3 run, which is just hilarious and something we should all be rooting for, except for Atlanta fans…. Rosario, Olson, d’Arnaud
Former Ranger Kolby Allard will start for Atlanta, and likely give them 5 IP if he can. He won’t repeat the 8K over 4 1/3 vs Minnesota, probably serves up a 2 run homer to Jose Ramirez in the first inning too.
Top “Stacks”
- Toronto
- Cleveland
CATCHER
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Danny Jansen
FIRST BASE
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr
- Matt Olson
- Mike Moustakas
SECOND BASE
- Ha-Seong Kim
- Jordan Diaz
THIRD BASE
- Jose Ramirez
- Matt Chapman
SHORTSTOP
- Bo Bichette
- Mookie Betts
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Eddie Rosario
- George Springer
- Fernando Tatis Jr
- Hunter Renfroe
- Vladdy Jr – 1B – Blue Jays – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Hunter Renfroe – OF – Angels
- Eddie Rosario – OF – Braves
- Jose Ramirez – 3B – Guardians
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Braves/Guardians
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- PiratesDodgers
- Athletics/Tigers
ML Targets
- Athletics
- Padres
- Braves
- Blue Jays