The Twins @ Tigers game was moved up due to rain/weather and will not count on DraftKings, but FanDuel posted their slate late as normal and has included this game as well as an earlier start time.
There is also a 10 am game as the Cubs/Cardinals will play in London so in case you are wondering why there is Baseball going on already, no, you didn’t oversleep.
WEATHER
Stormy Sunday today, chance of Isolated Thunderstorms in just about every spot that isn’t in a dome today, so that pretty much makes this section easier to write.
I believe every game finishes today, but the chance of delay in NY, BAL and PHI is high.
Strong winds blowing OUT at New Comiskey Park.
SUNDAY SLEEPER
CHARLIE MORTON (DK: $9300, FD: $9800)
Here it is boys and girls. The thing I alluded too yesterday and although the Braves won, we did have a high scoring game once again on Saturday. Now we get the quiet/fast game as Uncle Chuck baffles the young Reds hitters and winds up as the top overall scoring pitcher on the slate. Atlanta’s bullpen has been over worked of late as well, and with a veteran like Morton we should be expecting a 7 inning performance. He has to manage to keep Elly off the bases to avoid the stress of him stealing but otherwise this is going to be my winning ticket today.
TOP CHALK PITCHER
TYLER GLASNOW (DK: $8900, FD: $10k)
Everyone, their brother, their half-brother, their brother from another mother and even your Uncle Sal are going to be touting Tyler Glasnow today vs the Royals. No way the Royals can win 3 of 4 vs the Rays, right? NO way, Glasnow at sub 9k on DraftKings cannot mow down Pratto, Melendez and Olivares, right? Right. It’s legit a no brainer. What could possibly go wrong??? Besides, Status Update: Tyler Glasnow (back) leaves game early.
CHALK SP2
EURY PEREZ (DK: $8500, FD: $10.1k)
Along with Glasnow I would guess that the other heavy ownership on SP on DraftKings logically is Eury Perez. You won’t find a heavy justification for me to consider avoiding him on either site vs the Pirates.
OTHER NOTES
I really think Yusei Kikuchi ($7100 on DK) will do fine vs Oakland outside of maybe a solo hr to Diaz.
Eovaldi has seen his velocity drop quite a bit and although he might have historical numbers vs the Yankees, I think its enough to be worried.
Cole is going to be fine. Shouldn’t destroy Glasnow though and certainly with the storm concerns I can see just going elsewhere.
Kyle Bradish (DK: $6100) would warrant consideration if not for the weather/storms
We are fading the Braves/Reds game and you cannot talk me off that, so if you want to play that I kindly ask that you close your browser window immediately and go run along with your donkey ass.
WHITE SOX (& Boston)
Eloy Jimenez, Andrew Vaughn, Luis Robert Jr.
Forget the wind, I was 100% on the White Sox today with a sprinkle of Boston as well. Now we add in heavy winds, temps in the upper 80’s and this is your go all in donkey gamestack today.
Chicago without the wind help is not a 7 or 8 run team you just blindly back, certainly not when you have both Benintendi and Anderson getting top of the order AB’s, but if somehow they get cute and throw Frazier or Andrus near the top then maybe we have a huge day here. One of Eloy/Vaughn should go yard if not both off Crawford.
Boston has been doing well and that Raffy Devers 2-HR game is there I swear. Pair him with Adm Duvall.
RAYS
Harold Ramirez, Randy Arozarena, Jose Siri
I hate that I like so many home teams on a day slate, but we cannot avoid the Rays to bounce back today — even though of course MLB isnt a bounce back sport. Harold Ramirez, come on down. $3700 against Lynch and likely hitting third? This is a fantastic play today.
PHILLIES
Harper, Schwarber, Realmuto
Cookies is allowing a .431 xWOBA on his fastballs and just a 15% whiff rate. Please, explain to me, how is he going to get Bryce Harper and JT Realmuto out today? And if you say, well, Realmuto might sit, then, okay, fine. He still won’t get him out then. Duhh?
BLUE JAYS
Chapman, Merrifield, Vlad, Springer
The first two guys here mentioned are key. They gotta have HUGE games for this stack to really blow up. Oakland’s bullpen has been somewhat more steady of late but certainly in this park could serve up 3-4 homers. With Vladdy hot again we should see Springer get going at some point too, but Chapman/Merrifield are the must owns in any Jays stack.
Couple hitting notes as the week wraps up. The below list of names are guys who have an xSLG over .550 during their last 50 PA, but have not had a 2B or HR in any of those outcomes.
- Ryan O’Hearn, Jack Suwinski, Christian Yelich, JT Realmuto
The following players have a high xWOBA over their L50, but haven’t really put up consistent scores
- Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Jack Suwinski
Here is that BOOST+ Report which I referenced a lot last year.
- Brent Rooker, Nick Castellanos (He has long history with Cookies and isnt very favorable), Ryan O’Hearn, Carlos Perez, Lots of Tigers/Twins
CATCHER
Any value which opens up should be good value here today, meaning that Sunday backup catcher in a warm/stormy game is viable to hit a HR (or two). Don’t confuse this with the cheap guys who have been playing every day (Langeliers, Hedges, Naylor, Wong). I am more referring to a douchebag like Jose Trevino or ANTHONY BEMBOOM
- JT Realmuto
- Anthony Bemboom
- Jose Trevino
FIRST BASE
Vladdy is hot & streaky & not a bad play for $5500. There’s a few names here that I am ‘chasing’ in Alonso and Tellez as I expected them to homer in the series they are in, but Andrew Vaughn is arguably a top 5 overall play today on DraftKings and it’s comedy that he is $800 cheaper than Tim Anderson!
- Andrew Vaughn
- Pete Alonso
- Rowdy Tellez
SECOND BASE
- Whit Merrifield
- Luis Arraez
- Elvis Andrus
THIRD BASE
- Rafael Devers
- Matt Chapman … I don’t care if it comes off the bullpen, he will homer today, but is only $500 less than Devers, who might homer 3 times
- Alec Bohm
- Jake Burger
SHORTSTOP
- Trea Turner
- Aledmys Diaz
- Wander Franco – Wouldn’t use alone, would definitely use in a stack for the RBI+R correlations.
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Harold Ramirez
- Bryce Harper
- Eloy Jimenez
- Adam Duvall
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Luis Robert Jr
- Cedric Mullins
- Adolis Garcia
- Christian Yelich
OUTFIELD – Value
- Jesus Sanchez
- Brent Rooker
- Ryan O’Hearn
- Max Kepler (FD)
- Eloy Jimenez – OF – White Sox – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Bryce Harper – OF – Phillies
- Adam Duvall – OF – Red Sox
- Rafael Devers – 3B – Red Sox
- Aledmys Diaz – SS – Athletics
- JT Realmuto – C – Phillies
- Rowdy Tellez – 1B – Brewers
- Whit Merrifield – 2B – Blue Jays
- BONUS ………… Matt Chapman – 3B – Blue Jays
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
A lot today. Any game which has a T-Storm delay in game and bumps the ‘good’ starters could wind up going over (like Tex/NYY and SEA/BAL).
- Mets/Phillies … Try to get the hook here after a 1-2-3 top of first for Wheeler
- Brewers/Guardians
- Royals/Rays … Hey, the Rockies scored 1 run last night at home and the game covered the over, similar type setup here folks … except its the Royals scoring 1.
- Red Sox/White Sox … No total posted here yet, but obviously I’ll lean over.
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Braves/Reds
ML Targets
All about value
- Orioles
- Guardians
- White Sox