I won’t be bothering with tonights 4 game 7pm slate, as the 4PM afternoon slate today is the definitive MAIN slate with 10 games on it.
The London Series starts up today as well with the 1PM start time and a nice fat 13.5 over/under, which is higher than I had hoped because we’re locked in on the fact that MLB uses juiced balls in a park where pitchers got zero spin last time they played there. Again, the balls are not normal. Hammer the over still.
The good news today? We have site synchronicity!
WEATHER
Similar spots of concern today but unlike yesterday it’s not a PPD risk however it is a delay risk in these stadiums
- Philly, Baltimore, New York
All games will finish.
TOP PITCHER
JOSE BERRIOS (DK: $9900, FD: $9200)
The transformation of Jose Berrios into Marcus Stroman and Marcus Stroman into Jose Berrios hasn’t been talked about much. Berrios has gone from a good strikeout arm at 26% in 2021 down to 21% this year and his ground ball rate has jumped up to 47%. He’s learned to pitch a little more consistently and has only been hit around by the Braves and Marlins (his last start) this year. The Jays don’t lose Saturday home games to the lowly Athletics.
SECONDARY OPTIONS
There just isn’t a clear second choice today due to rain (Gray/Severino, Scherzer) and due to — no, no chance in hell I touch Lance Lynn vs Devers with Lynn coming off a 16 strikeout outing. Nuh-uh, no thank you….
OSVALDO BIDO (DK: $7400, FD: $7600)
Pitching today is dog crap and Bido isn’t going to be someone that’s around long in the majors but for now he is feeling himself and shouldn’t have any problems with the Marlins after Arraez today. SP2 is all about risk avoidance, who is going to not put us into the negative around 4:30 today and Bido fits that bill.
TANNER BIBEE (DK: $8100, FD: $8500)
Two things which bug me here, the lefties obviously in Cleveland (even though Bibee will continue to be good vs LHH) and a very high Humidity/Dewpoint rating which should help the ball travel today & is a big reason why Peralta isn’t on my radar either.
Throw those things out however and there’s plenty to like with a free swinging Milwaukee lineup who has to face Bibee’s excellent slider and should struggle there. So if he can avoid the homers to Yelich/Tellez/Winker then we’re going to steal a good spot.
OTHER NOTES
The Rangers/Yankees being at 4:05 has me all thrown off today, as New York is always a Saturday 1PM start time. Throw in some showers/storms coming in and out during the game and I just want to run away from Gray and Severino. HOWEVER, for sure both could wind up being stellar options, or a 4PM Yankee Stadium game can be a homer fest (kinda where I am leaning). Crossing that one off.
Merrill Kelly has faced the Giants more than any other team in his Major League career, going 6-4 against them. But 7 of those starts have come on the road in San Francisco, where he is 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA. The guy loves domes and hates grass, fade my friends.
Bryan Hoeing will not have much trouble with the Pirates — who are making a youth movement that will pay off long term but shouldn’t do much right now. I just doubt we get him through 5 clean innings since he hasn’t thrown more than 54 pitches in a game.
So yeah, there are some really optimal hitting spots today and with the Braves/Reds on the slate I am sure that takes 80% of the attention from everyone. We’re seeking spots where you can not only capitalize on the SP but obviously the bullpen today because of the depth of hitting…
Here are the games I am not interested in ‘stacking’
- Diamondbacks vs Giants
- Athletics vs Blue Jays
- Brewers vs Guardians – Very tempting though
- Pirates vs Marlins
- Royals vs Rays
BRAVES vs REDS
So let’s get this one out of the way right now. Yes, I see another high scoring and electric spot and one of my buried ‘Dongers Club’ theories that doesn’t get talked about much is when you have young hitters vs a young pitcher the advantage is always on the hitters side. But when you get young pitchers vs a veteran arm the veteran will shut them down.
Stop, re-read what I just wrote.
The Braves are starting Shuster today. Now do the math on who else is in the Braves rotation.
I’ll wait…
Keep thinking, Max Fried is still hurt yes…
Bingo. You got it. Remember that for tomorrow my friends…
Now, back to today
Atlanta
The game is going over again and Graham Asscrack is trying to save his job right now which might be hard to do after Austin Riley & Marcell Ozuna get through with him.
- Riley, Ozuna, Acuna, Albies
Cincy
EllyMania is in full force, but lets not mistake what our eyes are seeing and that is Elly dominating from the left side of the plate while being human from the right side. He’s the fade.
- Spencer Steer, Nick Senzel and Tyler Stephenson on the other hand are all ready to sit dead red today.
RED SOX
Devers, Yoshia, Durran
Lynn off a 16K game? Gimme some fireworks today. I like the White Sox side a good amount to hit Paxton but the HR potential for this game comes from Boston.
MARINERS / ORIOLES
Hernandez and Kelenic for Seattle are underpriced, and the Orioles are prime for an explosion spot from Henderson/Santander/Rutschman.
CATCHER
- Tyler Stephenson
- Adley Rutschman
- Travis d’Arnaud
FIRST BASE
- Pete Alonso … If you didn’t watch on AppleTV last night I do not blame you. But his first AB was literally 4 inches or Kyle Schwarber having 2 more inches of vertical leap away from being a home run because Schwarber could have gotten 2 more inches to push it over the wall with his dumb head.
- Triston Casas
- Rowdy Tellez
SECOND BASE
Tough to justify recommending that you take the highest $ options here today. I get Albies or McLain in the ‘game of the day’, but even though we’re not spending much on pitching we could use some value to throw in and rookie Nick Gonzales making his debut for 2k could deliver for a 5 or 8 which is just fine here.
- Nick Gonzales
- Matt McLain … Prefer him over India
- Nicky Lopez
THIRD BASE
Hardest spot to fill on DK, while on FD you’ll want two here. The HR upside is too good for Riley and Devers specifically — Devers has a 2 HR game in him coming soon.
- Rafael Devers
- Austin Riley
- Jose Ramirez
SHORTSTOP
- Gunnar Henderson
- Francisco Lindor
- Trea Turner
- Bobby Witt Jr.
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Marcell Ozuna
- Spencer Steer
- Josh Lowe
- Luis Robert Jr
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Ronald Acuna Jr.
- Masataka Yoshida
- Harper, Bryce
- Anthony Santander
OUTFIELD – Value
- Andrew Benintendi
- Jarren Duran
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Austin Hays
- Marcell Ozuna – OF – Braves – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Trea Turner – SS – Phillies
- Josh Lowe – OF – Rays
- Spencer Steer – OF – Reds
- Rafael Devers – 3B – Red Sox
- Pete Alonso – 1B – Mets
- Tyler Stephenson – C – Reds
- Nick Gonzales – 2B – Pirates
- BONUS ……………….. Luis Robert Jr – OF – White Sox
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Braves/Reds
- Red Sox/White Sox
- Brewers/Guardians
- Mets/Phillies
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Royals/Rays
- Pirates/Marlins
ML Targets
- Orioles
- Reds
- White Sox
- Rays & Jays Parlay