This is your typical Thursday day off for MLB. Of the games going today, two of them are make-up games (Braves/Phillies & Diamondbacks/Nationals) and then tonight there are 3 more games which we will just pretend are never going to happen.
The Diamondbacks/Nationals game is a make-up from a couple weeks ago and the D’Backs are just in town for one day, likely tired as hell seeing all this rain and eager to get back on the plane and head back out west to face the Giants. Look aheads really aren’t a thing in MLB, but holy heck this is a lookahead spot — hammer the under on this game.
WEATHER
Mother nature is giving MLB a pass here today. The two make-up games are both in rainy spots but it looks like it will be clear enough to play through both of them. Those spots are ATL/PHI and ARI/WSH…
I could make a case for about 7 starting pitchers on this slate and there’s only 9 as Boston should be going with a true bullpen game.
ARMS I AM ON
AARON NOLA
This settles in as Nola, Ryan and Snell. I cannot get on the Joe Ryan spot in warm Minnesota and with Boston hitting very well of late, he is the one who I just don’t see burning me by fading him. The Giants are also hitting well of late too, but Snell is going to be right here with Nola overall.
I assume the weather is clear, if it shifts obviously then we need to go down to Blake Snell, but you will see plenty of Atlanta ownership against Nola since they have positive history against him, but this is an advantage Nola spot coming off the extra days rest and a likely quick get away afternoon 2-0 Phillies win.
Don’t be shocked if Bryce Elder has a 20+ DK game too, I like him a good amount.
JAKE IRVIN
When they announced this game a couple weeks ago as a fly in and fly out spot for Arizona, I had to circle it as a definite under. Unfortunately we get Tommy Henry and Jake Irvin, two guys who can pitch well but won’t run away with any slate for you. If we can get depth from Irvin, who has pitched well for the Nationals then we’re going to be just fine. Go contrarian today.
ARMS TO AVOID
LOGAN ALLEN
I expect him to be a popular option against Oakland. His Change-Up has been extremely effective at getting whiffs on RHB this season and just Carlos Perez is someone in the projected lineup for Oakland that will like seeing that pitch. But his other options aren’t going to be as effective as you think. I will fade Allen.
JOE RYAN
I see no scenario where this game is not another high scoring spot between these two teams. Ball should be carrying well once again in Target Field.
TWINS
Alex Kiriloff, Joey Gallo, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler
The Red Sox will turn this into a Bullpen game & they should just have one realistic LHP available out of the pen in Chris Murphy. This brings me confidence that Kiriloff and Gallo stay in the game and Max Kepler is hitting well of late too.
RED SOX
Yoshida, Devers, Duvall
The top of the Boston order has been on fire of late, which if they continue to get on base should open things up for Devers/Duvall to clean the bases.
CATCHER
- Carlos Perez
- Gary Sanchez
- Connor Wong
FIRST BASE
- Alex Kiriloff
- Joey Meneses
- Nelson Cruz
SECOND BASE
- Edouard Julien
- Christian Arroyo
THIRD BASE
One of these studs is gonna hit 2 today and why is it Jose Ramirez?
- Jose Ramirez
- Rafael Devers
- Manny Machado
SHORTSTOP
- Aledmys Diaz
- Amed Rosario
- Xander Bogaerts
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Byron Buxton
- Brent Rooker
- Max Kepler
- Adam Duvall
- Jose Ramirez – 3B – Guardians – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Byron Buxton – OF – Twins
- Alex Kiriloff – 1B – Twins
- Brent Rooker – OF – Athletics
- Xander Bogaerts – SS – Padres
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Boston/Minnesota
- Oakland/Cleveland
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Atlanta/Philadelphia
- Arizona/Washington
ML Targets
- San Diego
- Minnesota
- Washington
FINAL THOUGHTS
This is a very quiet/boring slate. Maybe because it’s rainy and cold here in Virginia, but the safety route of 2 top end SP’s with a heavy game stack is how I am approaching today and that heavy stack is the Twins/Red Sox game with my one off’s being from San Diego or Oakland preferably.