Friday, May 12th – Dongers Club Main Slate
We got ourselves a nice big 13 game slate tonight, almost a full 15 gamer but the Tigers and Marlins wanna get their games over even faster and are on the Turbo slate.
Some bad weather unfortunately tonight as well
WEATHER
- Angels at Guardians – Rain, early PPD possible
- Astros at White Sox – Rain, early PPD possible
- Cubs at Twins – Rain, likely plays
Roof open in Chase Field, but will be closed on Saturday/Sunday.
The weather really puts a wrinkle in some cheap options tonight.
CORBIN BURNES
Yes, the Royals going into Milwaukee could prove to be a solid spot for a team who ranks top 5 in almost every hitting statistical category in the month of May.
And then you kinda pause and realize that this still young lineup might be above their heads right now after facing the Athletics and White Sox and will come into this spot vs Burnes ready to swing and swing and swing and miss and miss and miss. This smells like the long awaited 12 strikeout game which people have thought Burnes would have this season.
Should the Royals be chalk? No, but they should be a good value team that people look at, and yes I firmly believe Pasquantino can take Burnes yard, but they’re still gonna rack up the strikeouts today. Book it.
JOHAN OVIEDO
The legend of Johan has the most upside among the cheap SP. Baltimore has a 30% strikeout rate vs RHP in the last week and in this park he needs to handle the lefties, which he has done just fine this season.
MARTIN PEREZ
Someone on this very website wrote about the Athletics going back down offensively and folks back home in a Friday night game this has all the makings of “they’re not gonna get a hit”. Now, it is Martin Perez, so the strikeouts could remain low here, but at $8300 if Perez can give you 7 innings of 0 ER ball? You take it.
Other SP Thoughts
- Dustin May … Some risk with both May and Snell since they literally just met 6 days ago, this time they’ll be in LA and I trust the home SP who has no doubt had better stuff in 2023 (which is no disrespect to Snell, May has just been on point). Just 1 HR allowed all season and limiting teams to 3 hits or less in all other starts he is someone we’re seing learn how to pitch rather than just try to strike everyone out and that my friends, is a trait I love.
- I can see Austin Gomber pitching well enough in Coors but going against Turner and Castellanos ultimately is not advisable here tonight, so there’s just no reason to be that cute.
- G.Cole has had some huge games vs the Rays and some problem ones too. Not using him at home here where the HR ball is in play big time.
CARDINALS
Arenado, Goldschmidt, Edman, Yepez
Welcome back James Paxton, does he make it 4 innings? 5? 2? Who knows. The weather is VERY warm in Boston, the park is VERY favorable for their cold bats and overall they quietly have broken through a little bit over the last week. Load up on a big offensive weekend from the Cardinals. A 14 spot is coming.
PIRATES
Hayes, Santana, Reynolds
Kyle Bradish has one of the biggest gaps in terms of the difference on Whiff rates between in the zone and out of the zone. He gets most of his swings and misses out of the zone and the Pirates are one of the lowest chase rates right now out of the zone. Throw on top that we finally can get Carlos Santana his old man homer tonight and this is a nice affordable stack (outside of Reynolds) against an Orioles staff which is struggling.
Late add to the article
I like the Mets a ton tonight. Very warm in DC and this is an offense which will break out in a big way soon enough. The LHP matchup for Alonso/Pham and even Lindor here is really strong.
Pham is a top overall value play.
OTHER GOOD SPOTS
- BLUE JAYS … Nobody, absolutely NOBODY will have Toronto against a 60% fastball pitcher today. Well, except that sdchickens guy on his second lineup. Springer is expected back as well.
- PHILLIES … Castellanos and Turner
- RED SOX … Waino has a ‘Waino’ throwback type start coming where he can go 7+ and shut down his competition. It’s not this spot though.
- ASTROS … I dont think ths game will go, but if it does trust the value (Chas and Dubon) for Houston and oh yeah, that Jose Abreu guy is back in Chicago too, but again, I dont think the game will go.
CATCHER
Will Smith is absolutely on fire, but I really doubt anyone uses him over Realmuto at that price, so you have one fade there. The guy who is hitting REALLY well that nobody is talking about would be Francisco Alvarez for the Mets
- Francisco Alvarez
- Austin Hedges
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Austin Wynns
FIRST BASE
- Nathaniel Lowe … Was my chairman pick last night in Discord, had some good AB, should homer this weekend for sure.
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Vlad Guerrero Jr.
- Shohei Ohtani (OF) – Big time PPD concerns, otherwise he is top 3 play tonight
SECOND BASE
- Tommy Edman – 2B worse than SS where he is also eligible. So use him here.
- Luis V Garcia
- Nick Madrigal
THIRD BASE
- Nolan
- KeBryan Hayes
- Josh Jung
SHORTSTOP
Loaded. Absolutely loaded.
- Trea Turner
- Bo Bichette
- Willy Adames
- Amed Rosario – Rain concerns
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Nick Castellanos
- Brian Anderson
- Ronnie Acuna Jr
- Dylan Carlson
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Alex Verdugo / Masataka Yoshida
- Bryan Reynolds
- George Springer
OUTFIELD – Value
- Jack Suwinski
- Chas McCormick
- Sir Thomas Pham
- Nolan Arenado – 3B – Cardinals – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Nathaniel Lowe – 1B – Rangers
- Trea Turner – SS – Phillies
- Tommy Edman – 2B – Cardinals
- Shohei Ohtani – OF – Angels
- Nick Castellanos – OF – Phillies
- George Springer – OF – Blue Jays
- Francisco Alvarez – C – Mets
- BONUS …. Carlos Santana – 1B – Pirates
TODAY’S TOP BET(s)