Looking at an 8-game slate this Friday with some big news already in opening up a good amount of value. I have no interest in the Celtics/Suns game, so I will not be playing anyone from that game. Two solid defensive teams, low total and players are price appropriately. The Kings, Spurs, Blazers and Rockets are the teams to look to for value tonight.
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NOTES:
IF/THEN
- Joel Embiid- Questionable: look to James Harden and Tobias Harris if he sits.
- Rudy Gobert- Questionable: look to Naz Reid if he sits.
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NBA Dashboard is also another good source to help build lineups.
The “Droppin Dimes,” article will go over my favorite plays for the slate. It will consist of three to five core plays along with some additional plays and some value plays. You will not always see the highest-priced players or the most obvious plays. The article will be the building blocks to help construct lineup/s.
NBA Dashboard is also another good source to help build lineups. Check it out here – DailyAmbush: NBA Dashboard
The Dashboard will provide projections, player ratings along with matchup and other statistics for both Ambush and me (under FB Model). The dashboard feeds the optimizer allowing users to create lineups using (Avg FPs, Ratings, FB Projections, FB Ratings, projected ownership and GPP score). This is a good tool to utilize, and it gives the user a lot of ways to mix it up.
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(Note: All pricing and fantasy points are based on DraftKings but can be used for all sites.)
CORE
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LOGIC
Point Guard: I was initially looking to Tyrese Haliburton at the point guard position, but he is listed as questionable now and may sit on the second half of the back-to-back. I do think he will do well if he ends up playing. Fred VanVleet is next in line with him averaging 39.5 minutes and close to 50 FPs over the past five games. Add in that he gets an excellent matchup tonight against the Rockets who rank 26th against opposing point guards and run at a much faster pace. Look for another big game from VanVleet tonight. Damian Lillard and Malaki Branham were in consideration for core play.
Shooting Guard: The Kings will be without De”Aaron Fox tonight and this opens up a starting spot and about 30% usage. Malik Monk actually picks up the most usage with a +8% when Fox is off the floor for a total of 31%. I expect Monk to play 28-24 minutes against one of the worst defensive teams in the league. I see people leaning towards Davion Mitchell, who I think is fine and easily in play at his price, but I like Monk better with the safer floor and 10x ceiling tonight. Dejounte Murray and Josh Richardson are in consdieration for this position.
Small Forward: Paolo Banchero’s price has dropped to $6800 from over 8k as of late and he is too cheap for his minutes and the matchup tonight. Playing over 30 minutes a night with potential for high 20s in points and double-digit rebounds. Saddiq Bey and Harrison Barnes were in consideration.
Power Forward: The choice for power forward came down to a few things-DvP matchup and price of the player. Lauri Markkanen’s price has dropped down to $8400 from just shy of 10k. He is having an All-Star year averaging 25 points and 9 rebounds a game. We know Markkanen has upside with multiple 60 plus FPs games this year. Love the matchup against the Hawks who rank 29th against opposing small forwards where Markkanen should start and play most of the game with Olynyk playing power forward and Kessler playing center. Jerami Grant and John Collins were in consideration.
Center: Drew Eubanks is not picking up as much ownership as I expected and I am fine with that. Eubanks will most likely start and play 28 plus minutes. He is about a FPPM player and should easily crush value at his sub 4K price. Coming of a 11/11 game scoring 33 FPs in only 24 minutes. Love his upside tonight with the increase in minutes. Domantas Sabonis and Walker Kessler were in consideration.
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Additional Plays to Consider
I listed some additional plays in the core logic as also considered in each position. They are players I have a lot of interest in.
A few other plays
- Tyrese Haliburton
- Terry Rozier
- Kyle Anderosn
- Myles Turner
- Keegan Murray
Value
- Aaron Nesmith
- Davion Mitchell
- Trendon Watofrd
- Mark Williams
Dimes Play
–Stanley Johnson should see a bump in minutes tonight with Jones and Sochan out. Johnson hustles when on the floor and contributes in all categories.
**Options to help build lineups- Take these core plays and enter into optimizer with your favorite settings (rating, FBrating, FBprojections, ownership or ratings). OR use this article to help you build a lineup with some of your favorite plays. The Dashboard is also a great tool to help build lineups- It contains a good variety of stats and projections from multiple sources.
Good Luck!