We have been getting some solid size slates as of late with games between 5 and 8. The perfect size in my opinion as we get a solid amount of player to choose from and still be able to pull a few contrarians plays out. The NBA model and picks are starting to all come together.
The Pistons are a good source of value tonight again with three main players listed out tonight. Nerlens Noel, Saddiq Bey and Hamidou Diallo are my three picks from them.
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Player news: IF/THEN
- Kristaps Porzingis is listed as questionable- if he sits out then Kyle Kuzma becomes and elite play. Also consider Rui Hachimura.
- Anthony Edwards is listed as questionable- Rudy Gobert gets a nice boost along with Jaylen Nowell and Dimes Play Taurean Prince.
- DeMar Derozan is listed as questionable- if he sits out then really like Nikola Vucevic. Also consider Zach LaVine and Coby White.
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Changes to the article. Instead of giving core plays along with a write up for each I will list my core plays and give the logic behind them.
NBA Dashboard is also another good source to help build lineups.
The “Droppin Dimes,” article will go over my favorite plays for the slate. It will consist of three to five core plays along with some additional plays and some value plays. You will not always see the highest-priced players or the most obvious plays. The article will be the building blocks to help construct lineup/s.
NBA Dashboard is also another good source to help build lineups. Check it out here – DailyAmbush: NBA Dashboard
The Dashboard will provide projections, player ratings along with matchup and other statistics for both Ambush and me (under FB Model). The dashboard feeds the optimizer allowing users to create lineups using (Avg FPs, Ratings, FB Projections, FB Ratings, projected ownership and GPP score). This is a good tool to utilize, and it gives the user a lot of ways to mix it up.
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(Note: All pricing and fantasy points are based on DraftKings but can be used for all sites.)
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CORE
- Jrue Holiday
- Malik Monk
- Joe Ingles
- Dario Saric
- Nerlens Noel
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LOGIC:
Point Guard: Looking at underpriced Jrue Holiday tonight. Looks like he is back to playing 30 plus minutes and playing well. Holiday put up 35.8 FPs last game against the Knicks while shooting only 5-14 from the field. An excellent matchup tonight against the Hawks who rank 27th against opposing point guards. Projected to play around 34 minutes and deliver 43 FPs coming in at 6 times value. I do see upside around 50 in this matchup tonight with Khris Middleton still out.
Shooting Guard: Malik Monk is back after missing a few games and is picking up where he left off. Monk is able to contribute to all categories which helps his floor and upside, and he does not only rely on scoring. Love this matchup against the fast-paced Rockets who rank 30th against opposing shooting guards. This game should run at a very fast pace, and this helps upside as more opportunities arise. Looking for Monk to play around 26-30 minutes and drop around 30 FPs.
Small Forward: Joe Ingles minutes are ramping up coming off an injury. An excellent spot for the Bucks tonight as the Hawks run at a faster pace and they pick up about +2 possessions. Also, the Hawks rank 26th against opposing small forward. The price on Ingles is only $3300 and with him playing 20 plus minutes he should easily crush value. Do not see him picking up much ownership up all.
Power Forward: Look like DeAndre Ayton will be out again along with a few other Suns players. This opens up the minutes once again for Dario Saric who played well last night against the Warriors. The price and matchup along with Saric’s ability to score and grab boards. Coming in at only $3500 against the Nuggets who rank 24th against opposing power forwards. Also, this is a slight pace up spot for the Suns. The Suns will need Saric on the floor to help matchup against Jokic.
Center: The Dimes play last night Nerlens Noel becomes a core play tonight with the Pistons down all their big men- Marvin Bagley, Jalen Duran and Isaiah Stewart. Noel started last night, but only played 20 minutes as the game got out of hand. I see him playing more tonight against the Timberwolves as he will be into counter Rudy Gobert- who is an excellent play tonight as well. Noel is an excellent defender who will block multiple shots and get some steals. Also, he is min-price and has 30 plus FP upside which would put him at 10 times value.
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I will always play these core picks in at least one lineup. Depending on the type of contest I may switch out a few players-example MME larger contest.
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(V) Value Play
Additional Plays to Consider
| PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
|
Ja Morant Tyrese Halinurton Duane Washington- only if CP3 aits |
Hamidou Diallo
Dejounte Murray Zach LaVine |
Saddiq Bey
Kyle Kuzma Damion Lee |
Julius Randle
Jarren Jackson Jr De’Andre Hunter |
Rudy Gobert
Nikola Vucevic Larry Nance Jr |
Dimes Play
Taurean Prince- is back after missing over a month. Averaging around 24 minutes over the past three games. This is an excellent matchup against the depleted Pistons team tonight where Prince should have no issues putting up 20 FPs which is 6 times value. Upside around 25-30 FPs.
**Options to help build lineups- Take these core plays and enter into optimizer with your favorite settings (rating, FBrating, FBprojections, ownership or ratings). OR use this article to help you build a lineup with some of your favorite plays. The Dashboard is also a +great tool to help build lineups- It contains a good variety of stats and projections from multiple sources.
Good Luck!