WEEK 18 – NFL MAIN SLATE
I don’t waste a ton of time with Week 18. We have played NFL now for four months with plenty of one off slates as the NFL moves towards getting slates on non Sunday’s more and more and trying to over invest in this week just isn’t my cup of tea personally.
I have actually found that to work well for me personally in Week 18, because we can simplify things, stick to your gut and avoid trying to be the smartest person in the room. Let’s start first just by identifying what I am looking for in Week 18.
I want teams who don’t just have something to play for, but more have continuity coming into this week. You could have a team who is eliminated from playoff contention like the Saints, Texans and Browns who have been playing with some consistency the past few weeks and then you have teams like the Cardinals and Commanders who are just God awful right now.
From there, I will just identify if there is a specific player from those ‘Good’ teams that I want more so than worrying about incentives or specific match-ups.
The teams who have relevance that I will consider includes:
- Cincinnati
- Carolina / New Orleans
- Philadelphia
- Houston
- Pittsburgh
- Seattle
Teams that really dont need to play, but are in the mix for me
- Minnesota … Yes, they are alive for a few things, but really the Vikings should get this over with, rest guys and go try to win in the playoffs.
- Tampa Bay … They will play their guys, but how much in the 4th QTR is debatable
- Dallas … Same here, if Philly is running away with it, they could shut it down
- San Francisco … Ditto
Fades
- New England vs Buffalo … Curious to see how Buffalo really comes out this week. I am going to just completely stay away because I don’t think NE is any good but they certainly are playing for a playoff spot. Dabble here if you want, but I’m going to sit back and ignore it.
One final thought before we kick it off. There always seems to be that one ‘woah’ upset of Week 18. As much as we try to diminish the hype of Week 18 it somehow finds a way to deliver some incredible finishes. This year really feels less than other season endings in the past, but do you really think DirecTV loses Sunday Ticket without one final crazy 1PM game finish? I didn’t think so…
WEATHER
No issues.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
- Geno Smith … There will be some rain here but that’s not a big deal. I don’t see Seattle riding Geno through his best season ever all year and then stopping just because the Rams are coming into town. LA will stay competitive enough and Geno finishes with 3 total touchdowns.
ALSO LIKE
- Joe Burrow … This one could be a wild sneaky shootout, or 6-3. Worth a shot on Burrow.
- Sam Ehlinger
BE CAREFUL WITH
- Jalen Hurts
THE AMBUSH PLAY
- Najee Harris … Pittsburgh is playing well and confident. Najee has to touch it a ton this week.
- Miles Sanders … Even without their MVP in Lane Johnson the Eagles will still be able to rush it all game vs the Giants
ALSO LIKE
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Elijah Mitchell
- Joe Mixon
- Zack Moss
THE AMBUSH PLAY
- Chris Olave
- DK Metcalf
- Chris Godwin
- DJ Moore
ALSO LIKE
- Donovan Peoples Jones
- Rashid Shaheed
- Michael Gallup
- Russell Gage
- Drake London
This is where the slate is won or lost. Lots of cheap darts will do well here or none will at all…
THE AMBUSH PLAY
- Logan Thomas … TE is a rookies best friend
ALSO LIKE
- Gerald Everett
- Noah Fant
- Tyler Higbee
THE AMBUSH PLAY(S)
- San Francisco
- Philadelphia
- LA Chargers
AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
Enjoy the week, we will have a ton of better decisions to make with lots of good playoff slates coming up the next couple of weeks.
CORE BUILD
Geno Smith
Najee Harris
DK Metcalf
Tyler Higbee
BETTING CARD
Rams/Seahawks OVER 41.5
Patriots/Bills UNDER 43.5
Ravens +9
Panthers / Saints OVER 42
Steelers -2.5
Dallas -7