NHL DFS – The Slapshot
Come one, come all, come and enjoy this mighty December 1st NHL slate that we have on our hands today. Please embrace the new UI layout not just on the website but some improvements to the NHL Dashboard as well.
For starters, it moves more like Pavel Bure and looks like an Adam Oates pass now, which is always good considering it previously had too much Matthew Barnaby in it, and that is never a good thing. If you don’t know who those guys are, then you should go out and drink and enjoy your youth while you have it my friend.
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STARS
Team Model Rank: #1
In their last 5 games the Stars are averaging 34 SOG while the Ducks give up 37.2 SOG per game on the season. This all funnels into a scenario where Dallas should bow up on Anaheim.
Hintz, Pavelski, Robertson, Heiskanen
PANTHERS
Team Model Rank: #4
Florida should feel good about getting to face Vancouver and this is definitely a get right spot.
Lundell, Reinhart, Ekblad
AVALANCHE
Team Model Rank: #3
One thing that usually rings true on larger slates is that we can find enough sub 4500 players to make the high priced 8k+ guys fit in. Colorado presents three of those that can break a slate in MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar. Over the last month the Sabres have been most vulnerable to opposing centers so MacKinnon is kind of the obvious one off here while JT Compher is an interesting cheap value who is also playing Center and is also on PP1.
MacKinnon, Rantanen, Compher
CAPITALS
Team Model Rank: #16
While the Kraken are high scoring of late and playing really well they still posses a weakness on the penalty kill and the return of Oshie for Washington is continuing to pay off for them.
Kuznetsov, Oshie, Carlson
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The full top 10 on the model
- Stars, Flames, Avalanche, Panthers, Kings, Lightning, Wild, Devils, Knights, Hurricanes
CENTERS
Paying for one obvious center like MacKinnon tonight is okay, but I would not force in paying for two tonight. Lots of good value here.
- Nathan MacKinnon
- Brayden Point
- Anton Lundell
- Sean Monahan – Returns to CGY
- Evgeny Kuznetsov
WINGS
There are two studs here who are considered one offs for me in Stamkos and Kaprizov. Both could have multi-goal games but I am not correlating them with anyone else on their teams.
- Sam Reinhart
- Kirill Kaprizov
- Steven Stamkos
- Jason Robertson / Joe Pavelski
- MIkko Rantanen
- Jesper Bratt
DEFENSEMAN
- Aaron Ekblad
- Miro Heiskanen
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson
- Jakob Chchrun
- Matt Dumba
VALUE
- Jared McCann
- JT Compher
- Seth Jarvis
- Logan O’Connor – COL second line value with Compher
- TJ Oshie
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My Pick …
Alexandar Georgiev – Avalanche – DK: $7,900
Georgiev has been good away from Colorado, so maybe he just cant handle the altitude? His road SV% is .931 compared to .920 at home and his road GAA is 2.34 vs 2.68…. Facing a B2B team in Buffalo shouldn’t hurt either.
The rest of the field …
- Jake Oettinger – DK: $8,500 – For those who like to just take a goalie as if you are taking a high priced pitcher in Baseball against a team who doesnt strike out much. Boring. But safe?
- Antii Raanta – DK: $8,000 – Virtually the same option as Jake, but $500 cheaper. If he hits 30 SOG against then that’s a huge win but I also dont see him allowing more than 1 goal.
- Juuse Saros – DK: $6,900 – Should see a ton of SOG against, but hasn’t been great on the road and the Devils are just too strong right now to expect a lockdown game. But cheap and save volume is good in DFS.
- Jake Allen – DK: $7,500 – A longshot and sub 1% owned play here. I like Montreal to pull an upset and this to be a lower scoring game.
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LINE LOCK(S) OF THE NIGHT:
Lundell, Reinhart, Ekblad – (Panthers)
FAVORITE ONE OFF STUD FORWARD:
Nathan MacKinnon (Avs)
FAVORITE ONE OFF VALUE:
JT Compher (Avs)
FAVORITE ONE OFF DEFENSEMAN:
Miro Heiskanen (Stars)
BETS:
Hurricanes ML
Canadiens ML
Ducks/Stars OVER 6
Panthers/Canucks OVER 6.5
Caps/Kraken OVER 6