Welcome to the Week 13 edition of The Ambush.
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Quite possibly the deepest Quarterback slate of the season and my analysis of the top options doesn’t include Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen (Not on slate), Justin Fields (injured, but playing), Kyler Murray and really any other rushing type upside Quarterback. We just have a scenario where lots of players are in positions to put up big passing games, which is unusual come early December but also tells me that the chances of this being a weekend where a game stack will go off is higher than normal.
THE AMBUSH PLAY…
PATRICK MAHOMES (DK: $8300, FD: $9000) … His price should keep his ownership down and that’s tremendous since we are getting Mahomes with a new baby boy narrative here against the team who kept him out of the Super Bowl a year ago.
I ALSO LIKE…
JARED GOFF (DK: $5300, FD: $6800) … In this same game, T-Law will be one of the more popular QB choices of the week but Goff I think winds up helping the rest of your lineup construction out better.
JUSTIN HERBERT (DK: $7200, FD: $8100) … Arguably still cheap for Herbert the way he is playing he should continue to play well since Vegas is allowing almost 72% of passes completed against them. If they can handle any little pass rush then Herbert will throw for 350 this week with ease. The weapons are getting healthy too and Joshua Palmer continues to shine as an additional passing weapon in this offense.
The rest of the guys I see doing well this week:
- Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
- Joe Burrow (CIN)
- Kenny Pickett (PIT) … Wish that Harris was not playing
BE CAUTIOUS WITH …
JALEN HURTS … We saw the method that teams might employ against Philly two weeks ago when Washington went run heavy to chew up the clock and played with a strong defensive line to slow down the Eagles. Tennessee can do the exact same thing and we are into De-Hember so I believe Henry will get the ball over and over again as they try to chew up the clock and have long drives — thus keeping the ball away from Philly.
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THE AMBUSH PLAY…
DERRICK HENRY (DK: $8100, FD: $8800) … When the Titans go on the road they load up on Henry. When the Titans come off a loss, they load up on Henry. When the Titans play in December, they load up on Henry. Henry the RB he is. Henry the RB he is he is. He’s getting the ball on second and third down, he’s been getting the ball on first down before and every play was a Henry, Henry! They wouldn’t pass to a Treylon or Robert, no Bob! Second drive, same as the first… And this concludes a really bad music pun. Thank you.
I ALSO LIKE …
DAMEON PIERCE (DK: $5900, FD: $6500) … Hi, DeShaun. Welcome home. We made some upgrades you see and one of them is Mr. Dameon Pierce getting to do what every other RB has done against Cleveland and that is tear them up and down the field.
KENNETH WALKER (DK: $7000, FD: $8000) … What might feel like a tough RB match-up on paper just got a heck of a lot softer with Aaron Donald being out for this game and probably the rest of 2022. Seattle gets to bounce back to try and stay in the playoff hunt against a Rams team that has long mailed it in. I expect the benefit of a few short fields to help boost TD potential.
TRAVIS ETIENNE (DK: $6400, FD: $8000) … The DraftKings price is criminal while the FanDuel price is a hard no.
KYREN WILLIAMS (DK: $5200, FD: $5500) … Are the Rams gonna suddenly win? Probably not. Are the Seahawks suddenly gonna pitch a shutout? Also probably not. Williams is going behind a bad offensive line but against a bad rushing defense. Temper your “he’s gonna smash” thoughts here but since he remains cheap and is the main horse who should get plenty of run to prove himself I think we can be comfortable using him.
The rest of the guys I see doing well this week:
- James Robinson (NYJ)
BE CAUTIOUS WITH …
The Pittsburgh RB situation
THE AMBUSH PLAYS…
MARVIN JONES JR. (DK: $4000, FD: $5600) … The Lions rank 27th in receptions to WR, 30th in yards and 25th in touchdowns allowed. Oh yeah, he’s a former Lion of course for dirt cheap.
TYLER BOYD (DK: $5300, FD: $6300) … Just like cornerbacks in the NFL and married men we have to have short memories here in the DFS land. Tyler Boyd was a huge let down last week in Tennessee but as I noted the return of Chase is why we really want Boyd because it opens things up and this game is going to live up to the points hype.
DJ CHARK (DK: $3800, FD: $5800) … How many mid level WR revenge narratives can we fit into the same game? Why not load up on a Chark and Jones revenge comparison from this game and move on?
I ALSO LIKE …
GEORGE PICKENS (DK: $5100, DK: $6100) … Pickens returns to Georgia where he played college ball and gets to feast on a less than athletic Atlanta secondary.
JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER (DK: $5700, DK: $6900) … As long as someone keeps him from going on TikTok before the game and dancing on the Bengals logo I think Mahomes can manage to make him a great pick this week.
JAYLEN WADDLE (DK: $7400, FD: $7900) … The short passing game will have to show up for Miami and then it’s about the speed and YAC for them. San Francisco is also bad on third and short so Waddle could break one to the house on a 3rd and 1 call this week.
AMON-RA ST. BROWN (DK: $7100, FD: $8000) … Price is a bit much for the other studs we want on this slate and with WR being very strong this week I do not have him into the must own category outside of the JAC-DET game stacks.
The rest of the guys I see doing well this week:
- Drake London (ATL)
- Christian Kirk (JAX)
- Tyreek Hill (MIA)
- Joshua Palmer (LAC)
BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
Justin Jefferson, Garrett Wilson
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THE AMBUSH PLAY …
TRAVIS KELCE (DK: $7900, FD: $8400) … Mr. Ohio returns to face the Bengals. The Chiefs don’t win this game without Kelce going over 100 yards. You are either paying for Kelce or completely punting TE and I don’t love the TE punt options that much.
I ALSO LIKE …
GEORGE KITTLE (DK: $5000, FD: $6200) … I would prefer to play Kittle as a second TE this week than playing him over Kelce, especially on FanDuel.
TYLER CONKLIN (DK: $3700, FD: $5000) … Minnesota isn’t horrible in stats to TE, but they do rank 25th in TD allowed
BE CAUTIOUS WITH …
MARK ANDREWS
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THE AMBUSH PLAY…
RAVENS
I ALSO LIKE …
VIKINGS
TEXANS
BE CAUTIOUS WITH …
STEELERS
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AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
Question: Who is getting OVERLOOKED this week and why is it PATRICK MAHOMES?
Question: Favorite Core Plays On DK/FD for a Balanced Lineup
- RB – Dameon Pierce
- WR – Marvin Jones Jr
- TE – Travis Kelce
Question: Favorite Pay Up Player(s) outside of the Balanced CORE
- Derrick Henry
- Dolphins/Niners stack
Question: Game Stacks of the week are?
- Chiefs at Bengals
- Jaguars at Lions
- Dolphins at 49ers
- Browns at Texans
Question: Top Bets of the week?
- Texans +7
- Giants/Washington UNDER 40.5
- Chiefs -2
Question: Upsets
- Houston ML
- Titans ML
Question: Theme of the week
- Studs and Duds Lineup Construction. Find your value at RB2/FLEX and WR3