Thanksgiving Football!
This is the best Holiday of the year and I will not be fielding any debate on the matter at this time, so thank you for your understanding. Today is great not because of the football but because of the way the Holiday works. It’s not about the food but that’s a big reason for the day being special. Nobody is actually forcing you to follow the standard Thanksgiving meals, just eat anything, drink anything and do absolutely NOTHING all day long. How can you argue with that?
And then how can one argue with Friday and Saturday being great college football days themselves? Just enjoy the best time of the year folks and lets win some money this Thanksgiving.
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The Injury Report …
BUF @ DET
The Bills will be healthy ‘enough’ and I don’t see any reason why we should be concerned with Allen.
Lions CB Jeff Okudah is OUT and WR D.J. Chark is questionable while RB D’Andre Swift is a full go.
NYG @ DAL
The biggest one here has already been ruled out as Wan’Dale Robinson is now on IR for the season right as he was really starting to emerge for the Giants. This should result in the Giants going back to more of what got them here but it has to open up some potential in the short passing game for them too. Someone like Isaiah Hodgins or even the worthless Richie James Jr. could wind up being decent ‘Showdown’ plays in that single afternoon game but aren’t worthy of using on main DFS lineups with such a deep slate for WR. Yes, Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton should maybe catch a couple more targets.
Dallas seems to be taking the ‘were banged up but we’ll play’ approach however I wouldn’t at all be shocked to see them rest one or both of DeMarcus Lawrence and Michah Parsons on a short week. Both being out would significantly help Daniel Jones avoid drinking out of a straw by Friday.
NE at MIN
DaVante Parker is questionable for the Patriots. Otherwise not much here to really note which is of any change from prior week(s).
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The Weather Report …
Well, lets see, we got Dome, Dome with a hole and Dome. Although the NYG-DAL game could have rain coming through the hole.
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THE AMBUSH PLAY…
JOSH ALLEN
The Bills lucked into an extended road trip by flying into Detroit for their game last Sunday and now they can stay there all week to have a better than expected practice week for the Thanksgiving showdown with Detroit.
This should be the game with the most points and best tempo in it and the Josh Allen train is going to lead the way in a get right game for the passing attack. I expect Allen to get a rushing touchdown here and have no problems finding Davis/Diggs en route to a 30+ point outing for the Bills. He has the clearest path to winning the slate and is good chalk.
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I ALSO LIKE…
JARED GOFF
For a different build you can start lineups with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Stefon Diggs and Justin Jefferson today that will require you to pay down at Quarterback and Goff is historically much better indoors and should have a relatively good passing day vs Buffalo. Don’t sleep on pairing him with Swift either, because if the Lions get production from their RB it has to be Swift for Goff to pay off.
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
KEEPING UP WITH THE JONES’
Mac and Daniel are two of the ‘cheaper’ value Quarterbacks which might get consideration. I want no part of either.
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Could you start 2 RB from the same team on this slate? Absolutely. There’s a case which could be made for 3 of the teams in that regard and we also should remove the blinder which many NFL DFS players have when it comes to pairing QB and RB together from the same team. It’s more than adequate not only for a three game slate but also with how many of these specific teams use their RB. So just bare that in mind even though I am not leaning that way personally.
THE AMBUSH PLAY…
SAQUON BARKLEY
After a disappointing game last Sunday the Giants will look much better against a good pass rush on the Cowboys. How can that happen you ask? By handing the ball off to Barkley 20+ times. Volume and talent combined with a short slate has me liking Barkley to be a big difference maker. He has to touch the ball a ton for them to offset the Cowboys rush even if Parsons and Lawrence do sit.
D’ANDRE SWIFT (over Jammal Williams)
The TD volume has been going to Williams, but we’re using Swift for pass catching options. His price is very friendly for the game script we should get a kinda healthy Swift for the whole game.
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I ALSO LIKE…
ZEKE ELLIOTT (over Tony Pollard)
The price on Tony Pollard along with how well he has played is going to make him the chalk build, but it’s Zeke on Thanksgiving, a tradition unlike any other and we load up on the cheaper RB who still gets goal line work.
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
TONY POLLARD
It’s not that Zeke is my pivot off Pollard as much as I believe in Swift and Barkley to have very good games and so that narrows down how much I would need Zeke to stay close with Pollard because I am getting good production from my RB1 and RB2 picks.
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THE AMBUSH PLAY…
GABRIEL DAVIS
Diggs/Davis/Diggs/Davis/Diggs/Davis/McKenzie? Thats how the passing game should flow for the Bills today and I don’t see any reason to not trust Davis at $5,300 to torch the Lions secondary, which can be beat over the top. Detroit has been better of late in regards to a pass rush so Diggs is most certainly going to catch 6+ balls. One thing that I noticed last week was Diggs being upset on the sidelines about not getting the ball and he immediately got it for a TD after that. This week Allen is going to get it to Davis.
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I ALSO LIKE…
AMON RA ST. BROWN / KHALIF RAYMOND / DJ CHARK
I would rank the Lions options as D’Andre Swift number one and then the spinning wheel on these three next. Khalif Raymond had 6 targets on 24 routes ran last week and could draw more favorable coverage than St. Brown and should see more run than Chark who remains banged up.
But for me, Amon-Ra St. Brown is really hard to pass up.
STEFON DIGGS / ISIAH McKENZIE
Seven catches for Diggs feels about like what we can expect while McKenzie is a cheap second full Bills stack option. The other two games are not going to touch this one for points so go heavy here.
JAKOBI MEYERS
Meyers coming out of the slot should be good for 4-5 catches against the Vikings most likely target on D.
DARIUS SLAYTON
The only Giants pass catcher I would trust.
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
CEEDEE LAMB / MICHAEL GALLUP
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THE AMBUSH PLAY…
TJ HOCKENSON
Last week Cousins and Hockenson tried twice in the end zone and both times they failed to convert. This week they can try again vs the Patriots who rank 32nd in TD allowed to Tight Ends.
DALTON SCHULTZ
Schultz has thrived when the Cowboys go into a two minute offense in the past but they haven’t had to do that much when they are blowing teams out like they did the Vikings a week ago. So here’s to a non blowout script which has Schultz catching 6 balls for 70+ yards. The Giants are 27th in yards allowed to TE on the season.
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I ALSO LIKE…
DAWSON KNOX
For use within Bills stacks.
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
PUNTING TE
Don’t just open up your DK app today and play one of the $2500 donkey TE’s. The $3800 Schultz, $3500 Knox and $3100 Henry options are equally good value.
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THE AMBUSH PLAY…
VIKINGS
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I ALSO LIKE…
PATRIOTS
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AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
Question: Who is getting OVERLOOKED this week and why is it PUMPKIN PIE?
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Question: Favorite Core Plays On DK/FD for a Balanced Lineup
- Josh Allen
- D’Andre Swift
- Gabriel Davis
Question: Game Stacks of the week are?
- Bills vs Lions
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Question: Top Bets of the week?
- Bills + Cowboys + Vikings ML Parlay
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Question: Upsets
- None
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Question: Theme of the day
- Food
- Alcohol
- Falling asleep before the Vikings game
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