A very straight forward four game slate this Monday evening and one which you likely will end up leaving some money on the table as it is void of Toronto, Colorado, Washington, Edmonton and other high priced players.
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TOP PLAYERS TO TARGET
Kyle Connor – Winnipeg Jets
Correlate with Pierre-Luc Dubois
Kyle Connor should be our top overall skater tonight averaging 1.45 xGoals/60 mins and facing pretty much the worst defense in the league while at home. The Jets top line is anchored by Pierre-Luc Dubois who should have a strong chance of putting one in the net as well given that Arizona is near the bottom in the league against centers.
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Nils Hoglander – Vancouver Canucks
Value play
I have long preferred taking second lines on the road and top lines at home. It’s just a general match-up scenario where I project the top line to draw less advantageous matchups. That’s not so much the case here but it does weigh a little bit for me in deciding beetween Hoglander at $4,600 and top line LW Tanner Pearson ($3,100). The Canadiens have been a mess all year resulting in front office changes most recently but they are extremely bad against left wingers ranking 31st overall on the season. This is a good value spot to consider either Hoglander or Pearson (or heck both) as Vancouver is in a nice spot even on the road as dogs.
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Rasmus Dahlin – Buffalo Sabres
Correlate with Tage Thompson and Sabres PP1 unit.
As bad as Buffalo is I don’t see them losing twice to Seattle and they were beaten fairly handedly out in the great Northwest 5-2 earlier this month. The spot to attack the Kraken with is on defense. Dahlin see’s the most ice time here and is the only D man on the Sabres top Power Play unit. I like Buffalo at home tonight as a dog and think we should be getting some exposure from them
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TOP STACKS
Winnipeg – Pierre-Luc Dubois, Kyle Connor, Neal Pionk
Buffalo – Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner, Rasmus Dahlin
Calgary – Lindholm, Gaudreau, Tkachuk
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GOALIES
With just four games no need to list out 5 goalies for you, so lets lock in on the one spot we want to consider. I think the ownership tonight is all on Connor Helleybuck given that he is a heavy home favorite and there’s very little chance that he does not win this game today. With just four games I am open to taking the Helley chalk but the Coyotes only average 25.6 shots per game and you are going to be fine fading him if he doesn’t get a shutout. He’s your “I don’t care, just dont get me negative” goalie tonight (famous last words).
Your upside goalie today is Tristan Jarry, who also checks in as our leverage goalie tonight. The Penguins are a road dog against a good Flames team so nobody will trust Jarry, however this is a high shot volume upside spot for him and he is on a roll allowing no more than 1 goal in each of his last five games with three shutouts along the way.
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SLAP … SHOTS
LINE LOCK OF THE NIGHT:
Dubois, Connor, Pionk (Winnipeg)
FAVORITE ONE OFF CENTER:
Elias Lindholm (Flames)
FAVORITE ONE OFF WINGERS:
Kyle Connor (Jets)
FAVORITE VALUE WINGERS:
Nils Hoglander (Canucks)
Marcus Johansson (Kraken)
FAVORITE DEFENSEMAN:
Rasmus Dahlin (Sabres)
Jeff Petry (Canadiens)
Neal Pionk (Jets)
LEVERAGE GOALIES:
Tristan Jarry (Penguins)
FAVORITE BETS:
Sabres ML