Tonight brings a 7 game slate starting at 7p.m. ET. This is a smaller slate that most Fridays where we see 10 plus games.
The “Droppin Dimes,” article will go over my favorite plays for the slate. It will consist of three to five core plays along with a few additional plays and a few value plays. You won’t always see the highest-priced players or the most obvious plays. Players listed first at each position are my favorite and a good start to build a lineup around.
(Note: All pricing and fantasy points are based on DraftKings but can be used for all sites.)
Keep an eye on the injury status of players as they can be ruled out right before lock.
Game/s to Target:
Kings@Pelcicans- high total, lack of defense and fast pace.
Pacers@Nets
If/Then….(Injury scenarios)
IF Nikola Jokic sits out……..biggest news of the night. Looking at freeing up 30+% usage. This will bump Michael Porter Jr, Will Barton and Aaron Gordon- JaMychal Green would be an excellent value play at only $3200.
IF LeBron James sits out then Russell Westbrook, Anthony Davis and Malik Monk become viable.
IF Bam Adebayo sits out then Jimmy Butler gets a bump and Dewayne Dedmon should get a start and becomes an excellent value.
NOTES:
FPPM= Fantasy Points PPer Minute, FPPG= Fantasy Points Per Game, PPG=Points per Game, Value=Projected points/salary(This will differ depending on the site).
De’Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings ($8400/$8000)
This is reduced price for Fox, especially on FanDuel. He has a 31% usage rate, taking close to 20 shots a game, dishes out assists at a high rate and will grab a few steals. This is an excellent spot for the Fox and the Kings tonight as this game will run fast, has a high total and a lack of defense. I do not see anyone on this team that will slow down him tonight and this could be his first 50 FP game of the season.
Also consider: James Harden- guards are doing well against the Pacers, Damian Lillard- he will not continue to shoot 33%. Assists have been there. It is just a matter of time where he goes off. Nothing like the second time around against the Clipper, DeVonte Graham.
Value: TJ McConnell– productive when on the court and he should see additional minutes tonight with Brodgon out and possible a start.
Jalen Brunson– Porzingas is out again tonight, so Brunson has back-to-back 35 plus FP games without Porzingas and only 4.8K
Also consider: Fred VanVleet- back-to-back 50 FP games. Excellent matchup tongiht, Tyler Herro
Value: Gary Trent Jr, Cody Martin- 20 plus FPs in 4 out of the 5 games this year.
Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat ($8700/$9200)
Similar situation last year where Butler kept dropping 50 burgers and DraftKings barely moved his price. He has back-to-back 50 plus FP and his price went down $100. This is a smash spot against the Hornets. In line for another 50 burger tonight. This will be an even better play if Bam Adebayo sits out.
Also consider: The Real OG Anunoby- smash spot against the Magic, Kevin Durant
Value: Jeremy Lamb, Bruce Brown
Nicolas Batum, LA Clippers ($4000/$4600)
Batum should start again tonight for the Clippers with Marcus Morris still out. He is not a flashy player that will score 30 points or get 10 plus rebounds or assists, but he will go out and put together a solid game most nights. He is coming in as one of the better value plays on my model tonight with an upside of 7 times value. This is a matchup against the Blazers, his old team, where he tends to step it up against them.
Also consider: Domantas Sabonis-picks up some usage with Brogdon out, Evan Mobley- playing around 33 minutes a night. Lakers have allowed the 5th most points to opposing teams this year.
Value: Maxi Kleber- this is not chasing his big game last night. He is only $3300 and does not need much to hit value. No Porzingas means more minutes for Kleber, Kevin Love, Aaron Gordon
Richaun Holmes, Sacramento Kings ($5800/$7500)
I prefer this play on DraftKings as his price is a bit too low, but he could still hit value an FanDuel in this matchup. His minutes have been up and down and a lot of that has to do with him getting into foul trouble. The Kings play the Pelicans tonight and Holmes will be needed to counter Jonas Valanciunas. On the season, Holmes is averaging 1.4 FPPM and should see close to 30 minutes tonight, which puts him in a good spot to exceed value. I have Holmes projected at 36.4 FPs which is about a 6.2 times return on value with an upside around 45.
Also consider: Jonas Valanciunas, Wendell Carter Jr.
Value: Isaiah Hartenstein, Dewayne Dedmon- if Bam sits, Dwight Powell
CORE PLAYS
- Jimmy Butler
- Richaun Holmes
- OG Anunoby
- Jaylen Brunson or Maxi Kleber
Dimes Play(GPP Play of the Night) Under 5k Player with low ownership and upside
- Dewayne Dedmon– if Bam Adebayo sits. He will destroy his value with more minutes.
- Aaron Gordon– usage ant shot attempts up over the past two games. Averaging 16 points and 8 rebounds in that timeframe. Projectyat 30 FPs with upside of 35, but if Jokic sits I can see him hit 40 plus.
**Options to help build lineups- Take these core plays and enter into optimizer with your favorite setting(rating, FBrating, FBprojections, FunkProjections, ownership or ratings). OR use this article to help you build a lineup with some of your favorite plays. The Dashboard is also a great tool to help build lineups- It contains a good variety of stats and projections from multiple sources.
Good Luck!