Sunday Morning Notes / Updates
Tight End:
- There are some folks who are concerned with Darren Waller being bumped to questionable for today’s game and I totally expect him to still play and be fine but there are a couple of fine pivots if he does wind up sitting after the 1PM lock time. The pivots are in the late games with Dallas Goedert and Tyler Higbee. Dallas is someone whom I actually really like given the game flow and no Ertz there anymore and I should have included him in the initial breakdown. If you hate the idea of ending up with $ on the table due to late swap (you shouldnt be) then throw in a second late game player as well to give yourself options.
Wide Receivers
- I am on the same basic core of guys that I wrote up before, but there’s far less risk this week in getting different at WR than the other options. This is the high upside position of the week and AJ Brown is hopefully recovered now from all his food/stomach issues. He is on our radar more IMO.
- I am still waiting on confirmation on Parker. If he is out then I am off the Dolphins entirely and would move over to the Bengals/Ravens game more heavily.
Running Back
- Locked in on Chuba Hubbard, and believe Aaron Jones is your best pivot off Derrick Henry.
- Do not pivot off Derrick Henry over to some trash like Devontae Booker.
Another week with some more BYE’s on the slate as we are allowing the Chargers, Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars, Vikings and Steelers to all take the week off. Without the Broncos, Browns, 49ers, Colts, Saints and Seahawks we are down to just a 10 game slate with six early and four late.
This is also that week where you get a ton of heavy favorites as we have not one, not two, not three, but four double digit HOME favorites this weekend and it’s really hard to expect any of them to outright lose but there are some definite trap/look ahead spots on this weeks slate which we haven’t really seen so far in 2021.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are home against the Chicago Bears coming off 10 days rest from their Thursday Night win a week ago and have a big game next weekend which them seem to be resting a ton of guys for. But can the Bears actually pull off the upset of the Bucs after they also beat them a year ago? Probably not, but I also expect Tampa Bay to be a little sluggish overall in this game offensively.
The Cardinals and Packers are both heavy home favorites against two really bad teams and this is of note because they play each other next Thursday night in Arizona. This is the time of the year when I do not love teams going into the Thursday night game the following week and wouldn’t you know it we saw the Browns and Broncos both lay eggs a week before their TNF game this week. But Green Bay is hosting Washington and Arizona is hosting … uh, Houston…. So no, I am not predicting massive upsets there but again, food for thought on how the Pack/Cards will approach their games with trying to get them over with.
And then we have the Rams at home against the Lions which is the narrative Bowl between Stafford and Goff. Honestly, I don’t think Stafford is gonna be up for any revenge here because if anything he should be thanking Dan Campbell and the Lions for finally letting him out of Detroit. Honestly if you had to live in Detroit and then got sent to L.A. would you be angry? Didn’t think so. On the other side Goff in some ways could be the angry one but it’s hard to have an angry revenge game when you suck and are facing Aaron Donald/Jalen Ramsey.
Oh, and for those keeping score at home on the Kenny Albert/Jonathan Vilma road team narrative. The road team is now 6-0 with the last three games going to overtime in games they have broadcast and this week they are doing the Eagles-Raiders game. More on that in the Q&A section below… hint hint…
Injury News
We get a relatively quiet week in terms of last minute news leading up to the games on Sunday as far as it appears right now, so there is really nothing which I am monitoring closely for impact on what has been written in the article below.
Weather Information
Again, nothing of significance here other than it is great football weather.
Patrick Mahomes (DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.8k)
I really don’t see why the Chiefs would do anything but drop back and throw it 40-50 times against this Tennessee defense which really lacks the ability to get pressure and anytime you give Mahomes extended time he will carve you straight up. Mahomes will not only throw for 350 and 3 scores but also rush one in. So don’t be afraid to pay up for him.
Lamar Jackson (DK: $7.4k, FD: $8,4k)
Bengals/Ravens is my favorite overall game of the week and I expect the Bengals to give the Ravens an upset scare — if not win out right. But Lamar is the guy who we want at Quarterback as he has historically dominated the Bengals defense and should be relied upon with his legs again this week. There’s a ton of chalk going to Rashad Bateman and I honestly think that is good chalk to pair with Lamar because he is cheap and if you are playing Lamar you want him to be rushing it so paying up for Andrews or Brown is a longshot pairing with Lamar. But as a QB1 to play naked in a game which should be higher scoring than the Vegas total I like rolling him out at $7,400 on DK and even the $8,400 on FD
Tua Tagovailoa (DK: $5.5, FD: $7.1k)
I could make a case for other higher priced guys like Rodgers, Stafford, etc. but I do not have any of them above Lamar or Mahomes and I didn’t want to have to list 2 QB from the same games (i.e. Burrow and Tannehill) – so lets look into the value category to identify if there is someone on the cheap that we can justify considering this week and I’m going to take a 2% owned shot here for a “third” lineup type play. This also sets up to be a great early slate only play with all the ownership going elsewhere but not needing many spots to fail.
Why Tua? There’s been a TON of talk this week about the Dolphins trading away pieces and making a move for DeShaun Watson and I can totally see it happening in the long term but in the short term this will be Tua’s second start off injury, plus he is facing an opponent which you would play a dead French hooker named Trinity-Jacques Pierre against if you could it seems so why not a QB who has two guys with profiles that the Falcons historically match-up terribly against in Davante Parker and Mike Gesicki? Tua is $5,500 on DraftKings but has a potential 270 yard and 3 TD projection here. No he isnt my main lineup type Ambush play here but even off the short week due to a flight back from London I can smell Miami keeping things close at home vs Atlanta. Which just feels weird to type.
Derrick Henry (DK: $9.2k)
The whole aspect of Henry on the road and not Henry at home is going out the window since he faces a defense giving up 5.2 YPC on the season and just does not have the physical size to prevent him from having multiple 30+ yard carries this week. Henry should be only considered on DraftKings because for $11k on FanDuel that is just silly and he needs a 35 point game there in my mind, but on DK you can find value elsewhere and justify taking him.
Chuba Hubbard (DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.3k)
Panthers HC Matt Rhule came right out this week and talked about how they had to get more commited to running the football and those were shots at Sam Darnold but it’s also a logical play for Carolina on the road against the Giants. Hubbard is something rare in DFS right now and that is a mid range RB who is going to see 90%+ of his teams touches in the backfield and should have a strong game in the passing department this week as well against a bad LB group on the Giants.
D’Andre Swift (DK: $6.0k, FD: $7.1k)
The path to attacking this Rams defense in recent years is with RB who can catch the ball, which Swift is doing at a higher rate this season . He has had no fewer than 4 receptions in any game with as many as 7 twice and against decent defenses as well. The Lions probably won’t have a massive amount of success on first and second down which favors Swift as well to be involved in the passing game as Goff checks it down to him. This price on DraftKings is exceptional for that type of PPR workload and if he can get in the box that would make him viable on FD too so consider him in your mix there.
Aaron Jones (DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.5k)
I love the Packers defense and ground game against Washington. Part of this is resulting in the game flow where Green Bay wants to get the game over with after halftime when they are up 13-3, and that would be a good dose of both Jones and AJ Dillon. If we can get the variance factor going in our way in regards to the touchdowns then this is the slate breaker play, but otherwise I would at a minimum expect Jones to have a productive day all around making him a solid core play.
Just missed my cut
Miles Sanders, Chase Edmonds, Joe Mixon
Tyreek Hill (DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.5k)
The decision between Kelce and Tyreek seems difficult to manage once again. But the speed of Hill should be a massive problem for the Titans secondary. I would finish your Mahomes lineup with whichever correlation between Tyreek, Mecole and Kelce fits best with Tyreek being 1a, Mecole being 1b and Kelce being option #2.
DeVante Parker (DK: $5.0k, FD: $5.6k)
Parker is basically the one guy with an injury designation which I am monitoring however all indications are he will be a go and he should shred apart the Falcons secondary. For his price this week he ranks honestly as my favorite play across both sites.
Calvin Ridley (DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.3k)
Were getting a discount here on Ridley since he was banged up and didn’t play in their London game, but the way the Dolphins are playing defense right now they seem to really not be in sync and are nowhere near playing with the motivation they had a season ago. Ridley is a tough guy for any defender to guard and even with the Dolphins secondary being good I would expect him to get open enough for a 6+ catch game and at these prices were getting his massive upside at a discount.
Mecole Hardman (DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.4k)
I can’t help but think tha tMecole Hardman and Tyreek along with Mahomes is going to win someone a lot of money this week. Hardman doesn’t need the volume that Hill gets to pay off in this price range.
Tee Higgins (DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.1k)
Do not forget about Higgins. With Chase being the golden child right now I would expect Higgins to draw some favorable targets in the red zone and his larger frame should prove to be a solid benefit for Burrow and the Bengals when needed down close to the goal line.
Low end Value WR
Rashod Bateman (DK: $3.4k, FD: $5.3k)
Well damn, I thought I was going to have my favorite low $ sneaky play this week but Bateman is popping off as a chalky play. His second week of work should prove to be another chance for him to show everyone that his hype is real.
Darren Waller (DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.8k)
This is the best second tier game of the week and Waller should get back to seeing a ton of targets once again. Philly hasn’t been as lock down on TE this season and Waller should really give them a ton of issues.
Hunter Henry (DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.7k)
Henry is your safer option (if there is such a thing) between the New England Tight Ends. He clearly has the priority for volume between the 20’s. The Jets are giving up more points to TE on the season than just about anyone and with Mac Jones likely to rely on Henry and Jonnu Smith we should see solid production here once again.
Tyler Higbee (DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.5k)
While Cooper Kupp gets his double digit targets, lets not overlook the chance for Matthew Stafford to pick apart his former team with one of Goff’s other favorite options in Tyler Higbee.
I really do not have much analysis to provide on defenses this week. It seems pretty clear cut on DraftKings and honestly the Packers are my favorite play on the entire weekend so I will take them for $4400 on FanDuel.
Packers (DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.4k)
I am a firm believer that Washington is done for the season. We have seen defenses “figure out” Heinickie and this is a terrible spot for them to be going into on the road against an improving defense.
Cardinals (DK: $3.1k, FD: $5k)
The Texans are bound to turn it over twice and likely give up a defensive score, which is the way the Cardinals win this game and move on to next week.
Fear not, the title of the article remains, but lets move the AMBUSH section at the end after providing the glimpse of what our player pool is. These are my favorite plays/themes/thoughts for the upcoming week. Some folks call this a CORE or a LOCK or whatever you want to give it a special label for, these are … The the plays to Ambush The Competition with this week.
Ambush Play #1 … Chuba Hubbard
The Giants defense is not in the top tier of rush defenses and with that comes a perfect opportunity for us to once again capitalize on a mid range RB against them this week. I don’t think the hype for Chuba is enough even though there is some out there in the fantasy tout land this week. With the performance of the WR last week being so poor and the matchup here against the Giants weak LB group we should see Hubbard go over 100 all purpose yards and I am making a bold prediction we see a massive screen game out of him which results in 6 catches for 40 yards in the passing game and a receiving touchdown as well.
Ambush Play #2 … DeVante Parker vs Calvin Ridley
Two guys who can have big days as possession receivers for good value. There is a temptation to take the high priced guys all around this week but in reality Adams+Henry+Tyreek+Kelce are your high priced studs and most of them are all in the same game. So a solid lineup construction this week results in going down to the mid range across the board for solid balance because you don’t need a ton of game scripts to flip in favor of fading the higher priced studs all in one lineup.
When that happens, look for two primary WR targets in Parker and Ridley to excel at their prices and you can easily play these two and expect potential for 280 combined yards receiving and three touchdowns.
Ambush Play #3 … Eagles/Raiders exposure
The Eagles side is the one I expect to wind up with more yards and touchdowns but they have a ton of options who can get things done. This is a fast track for their speed players to excel in and Devonta Smith should have a high volume game. But who the fuck is gonna do work for the Raiders besides Darren Waller and how is he not the smash play of the weekend going off for 12-167 and 3 million touchdowns. Alright, that’s a bit bold here, but the idea is we want exposure in this game and for sure Darren I wish I was a Baller Waller will be 50% of that equation.
Ambush Play #4 … Fades of the Week
I am very hesitant to touch the “blowout” games but not for the reason of it being a blowout, I just point to the look ahead factor for many teams this week and thus I am fading the passing game for the Packers, Cardinals and Buccaneers.
Ambush Play #5 … Favorite Game Stacks
Eagles vs Raiders
Hurts – Reager – Smith – Waller
Falcons vs Dolphins
Tua – Parker – Gisecki – Ridley
Bengals vs Ravens
Lamar – Bateman – Higgins – Chase
Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it …. Darren Waller?
There will be ownership on this game but probably not enough to be quite honest. This is the best game stack of the day all things considered with Waller being the primary option in the entire game who you will look back and say damn why didn’t I think of him?
Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it …. Eagles/Raiders?
There will be ownership on this game but probably not enough to be quite honest. This is the best game stack of the day.
1PM ONLY Longshot Build?
Dolphins/Falcons
4PM ONLY Build?
Eagles/Raiders is the best game here and hard to ignore. Don’t sleep on Brandin Cooks having a big game for Houston though.