It’s Thursday Night Hockey with nine games and a lot of teams making their season debuts tonight. The Canadiens, Maple Leafs and Rangers are all on back to backs tonight and the Canadiens/Leafs are both on the road. Meanwhile Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Seattle and Las Vegas who all played on Tuesday night are back at it today.
We are once again seeing early season Studs and Duds on DraftKings as they have a TON of underpriced skaters. Last night alone the value plays for me were coming through with ease but even though there is great value it doesnt mean we just want to lock in the 8k skater and move on. Correlation remains the key and correlating two 6k skaters together at lower ownership because everyone is going 8k+4K is a great advantage right now.
GAME BREAKDOWN
Top Games: Pittsburgh vs Florida, Kraken vs Predators, Lightning vs Red Wings
Mid Range: Arizona vs Columbus, Dallas vs Rangers, Leafs vs Senators, Knights vs Kings
Fades: Montreal vs Buffalo, Islanders vs Carolina
FAVORITE KEY SKATERS
BRAYDEN POINT – Tampa Bay
Last season Point faced the Red Wings eight times and had a goal or assist in each of the first five games. Detroit was bad against centers last season and looks to be that way again this year as well which makes Point and Tampa the first spot I want to target tonight coming off their 6-2 home beat down vs Pittsburgh on Opening Night.
SAM REINHART – Florida
The Penguins played well defensively against a high powered Tampa team on Tuesday night so I am a little cautious with attacking them heavy tonight but the Barkov-Reinhart-Verhaeghe top line for Florida is going to be a consistent line given the talent of Barkov and Reinhart’s always an affordable mid range winger
KRIS LETANG – Pittsburgh
Open your favorite drink and kick back for another year of one of my favorite narratives. Defenseman against the Florida Panthers! I really believe in the teams who already had a full game under their belt after the pause between pre-season and regular season and Letang is one of the better defenseman in the game when he is healthy & all indications are he looks very healthy right now. I would be shocked if he did not have another multi-point night.
Other Centers:
- Aleksander Barkov (FLA)
- Josh Norris (OTT)
- Ryan Johansen (NSH)
- Best Value:
- Alexandre Texier (CLS)
Other Wings:
- Jonathan Marchessault (VGK)
- Max Pacioretty (VGK)
- Filip Forsberg (NSH)
- Nikita Kucherov (TB)
- Best Value:
- Connor Brown (OTT)
- Brendan Gallagher (MTL) – $3400!!!! A bargain considering he should get good shot volume vs Buffalo.
- Ondrej Palat (TB)
- Reilly Smith (VGK)
- Jaden Schwartz (SEA)
Other Defenseman
- Shea Theodore (VGK)
- Miro Heiskanen (DAL) … Heiskanen gets PP1 time and is $1700 less than fellow Star John Klingberg, that extra time is worth the discount.
- Aaron Ekblad (FLA)
- Thomas Chabot (OTT)
GOALIES
Welcome to new faces in new places, which is always the deal as Goalies rarely seem to stay in the same location for very long and we have some guys in new spots tonight.
Elvis Merzlikins – Columbus
Elvis is the best talent among the guys in games that I am not viewing as Tier 1. But Arizona is not as good of a team on paper this year in my mind and Columbus is going to try and get a home debut win for their new coach tonight.
LINE LOCK OF THE NIGHT
Tyler Seguin – Alex Radulov – Jamie Benn – Dallas Stars
The Rangers looked terrible last night in Washington and should play better today but I would still expect a high scoring game because the Rangers overall should be involved in higher scoring games most of this season. With a fully healthy Tyler Seguin this season the Stars top line is very favorable too look at when they get a nice pace boost like they’ll likely see tonight. If the Rangers are as bad with penalties as last night then the PP with Heiskanen should come through as well.
Other Stacks …
Nashville Predators: Johansen / Forsberg / Duchene … RIP to the JoFA line as Arvidsson is now in LA, but still have to like RyJo and Forsberg against the Kraken.
Columbus Blue Jackets: Texier / Laine / Voracek
Florida Panthers: Barkov / Reinhart / Verhaegle / Ekblad
SLAP SHOTS …
ONE OFFS – STUD, VALUE, DEFENSE! No, these aren’t considered the “Top 3” players on a given night. They’re more the players who for their price are going to deliver the best results and something that we often need in DFS. A stud forward, a value winger and the right defenseman for his price.
ONE OFF STUD FORWARD: Brayden Point – Tampa Bay
ONE OFF VALUE FORWARD: Connor Brown – Senators
FAVORITE DEFENSE: Kris Letang – Pittsburgh
BEST LEVERAGE PLAY: Calvin Peterson – LA Kings
BETS AND OTHER
Kraken / Predators OVER 5.5
Stars / Rangers OVER 6
Blue Jackets -165