Lemme guess. You’ve enjoyed a nice relaxing Saturday whether you were out doing something with your family, sitting alone at the bar or doing yard work you are probably opening this article ready to enjoy a quiet Saturday night winning some money on Baseball DFS without too much drama so you can just pass out winning 2x.
Well, brace yourself bitches because have I got a feeling about tonight.
WEATHER
- Roof will begin closed in Arizona (they always do this on Saturdays)
- Lingering showers in Coors Field. Temps in the low 60’s.
Normally I just give you the three arms which can be used between both sites, but tonight’s very much about the $ you are spending on hitting on the sites to determine where to go on pitching.
DraftKings Pitching
I will be prioritizing hitting over pitching tonight. Yes we have Trevor Bauer at home against the Marlins, Carlos Rodon up against the Royals at home and Aaron Nola is on the slate as well. But there are hitting areas which I expect to blow up big time and I want to prioritize those over the three guys above who I all feel will at best just have a 3x game if they are at peak, and more likely finish around 1.5x to 2x
Carlos Rodon (DK: $10,000) & Mike Minor (DK $7,000)
Cooler temps and a 6PM local start in Comiskey is a recipe for a low scoring game. Add in that Chicago is likely going to be without Jose Abreu after a big collision yesterday with Hunter Dozier and we have a spot where we can stack the pitchers in this one. Rodon’s 10k price is just bothersome for me but until his fastball velocity drops back down we gotta assume he’ll continue to be north of 30% for strikeout rate and the Royals cannot hit gas up in the zone right now. In fact, they cannot lay off it that much either, so if he is able to live up in the zone tonight he should have a strong game. Minor is the one who I think gets way overlooked against a lineup that really isn’t that intimidating vs LHP without Abreu.
Justus Sheffield (DK: $6,600)
Im a little shocked to see Sheffield that high priced on FanDuel but they honestly have been better with pitching pricing this season than DraftKings has. Cleveland is just bad vs LHP with only Franmil Reyes having a xSLG over .500 against southpaws in 2021 and while Sheff isn’t going to strike out a ton of them given their LOW K%’s, that’s quite alright for $6,600 because he should get some good run support from a lineup that has gotten a massive injection into it.
Adam Wainwright (DK: $8,800)
There are not a ton of games tonight in which I would endorse a game stack of the pitchers but this is certainly one and Waino gets my preference because I just cannot trust Paddack this season. Waino is in great form right now with his last four games producing 7 IP, 9 IP, 5 2/3 IP, 8 1/3 IP outings totalling 28 strikeouts and 8 runs (5 of which game in the third game there vs the Mets). This is a relatively flat park shift for him as well so it’s kinda like pitching at home and the Padres lineup has what exactly to scare us tonight? Last I checked, Phil Nevin and Tony Gwynn aren’t walking through them doors.
FanDuel Pitching
Ian Anderson (FD: $8,600)
Anderson hasn’t been as sharp as he was in the pandemic season a year ago when he was debuting but he’s still been good enough with a CSW near 30% and doesn’t get hit too hard overall. Walks have been a concern and he faces a team who draws a good amount of walks so I wouldn’t expect a dominant 8 inning game but I do think you should consider him on FanDuel where walks don’t kill you much and he’ll still get a nice strikeout return.
Mike Minor (FD: $6,500)
Minor is a better play here on FanDuel and mostly if Abreu is out. If that’s the case then his main concerns are Andrew Vaughn (who is hitting well finally and is an issue obviously) and Yesmin Mercedes who is really coming back down to earth. Minor can deliver a QS tonight.
DraftKings Rankings
- Rodon & Sheffield
- Waino & Minor
FanDuel Rankings
- Anderson
- Minor
- Waino
The Revenge of COORedS Field
I pride myself on someone who doesn’t just pick up the slate look at Coors and there’s a long fly ball to deep left field by Castellanos and that will make it a 4-0 ball game….
The weather in Coors can always change quickly but as of now the rain should not be a major factor and things will play. We don’t have an 80 degree stormy night in Coors Field but we also are past the 40 degree temp type games and holy cow we have a pair of pitchers who likely won’t make it through the third inning today. Coors has to be sitting there in all of it’s beauty jealous that Chase Field put up a 17 spot last night and Tyler Mahle/Jhoulys Chacin are gonna do their part to allow for all the homers tonight.
Unfortunately Charlie Blackmon left early last night with a minor groin injury and he is out tonight reducing the Rockies chances to win again so give me all the Reds with a little Story/Cotton Eyed Joe/Tapia on the other side. Cincinnati is sitting Moose tonight but do not pass on Castellanos/Winker, one if not both are must plays.
NY Yankees
LeMahieu, Frazier, Voit
Please tell me you have been reading the articles every day and you remember what was written about Jorge Lopez in his last start? It was the sometimes good, sometimes shit GIF against the Red Sox and he wound up being the sometimes good. Okay, glad we got that analysis out of the way so that Clint Frazier and DJ LeMahieu can both go yard tonight. It’s only a matter of time until Voit gets ahold of one as well and we should definitely consider the Yanks on a slate I can see them being lower owned than normal.
Dunedin’s Revenge (Phils/Jays)
Harper, Hoskins
Philly has to be the side we prefer and even though they’re the chalky one and Nola isn’t good on the road we still have to love Philly vs a LHP opener and a Bullpen with some trouble spots in it.
CATCHER
- Tucker Barnhardt
- Yasmani Grandal
- Daulton Varsho
FIRST BASE
- Connor Joe
- Rhys Hoskins
- Luke Voit
SECOND BASE
- DJ LeMahieu
- Cavan Biggio
- Garrett Hampson
THIRD BASE
- Kyle Seager
- Josh Fuentes
- Nolan Arenado
SHORTSTOP
- Trevor Story
- Eugenio Suarez
- Trea Turner
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Nick Castellanos
- Jesse Winker
- Marcell Ozuna
- Jarred Kelenic
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Kyle Lewis
- Clint Frazier
- Raimel Tapia
OUTFIELD – Value
- Andrew Vaughn – DK
- Austin Hays
- Kyle Tucker
The Dongers Club
- Nick Castellanos – OF – Reds – Chairman of the Dongers Club because he’s gonna hit 2.
- Trevor Story – SS – Rockies
- Clint Frazier – OF – Yankees
- Yasmani Grandal – C – White Sox
- DJ LeMahieu – 2B – Yankees
- Bryce Harper – OF – Phillies
- Rhys Hoskins – 1B – Phillies
- Kyle Lewis – OF – Mariners
- BONUS ……………………… Marcell Ozuna – OF – Braves
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
- Reds
- Phillies
- Nationals
Team(s) with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP (i.e. Low owned secondary stacks)
- Yankees
- Rockies
- Blue Jays
Top Leverage Plays
- Blue Jays
CORE PLAYS FOR SINGLE ENTRY
- Carlos Rodon
- Nicholas Castellanos
- Jarred Kelenic
- Connor Joe
FAVORITE ONE OFFS
- DJ LeMahieu
- Rhys Hoskins