We finish off the month of April with a 14 game Friday slate and a TON of windy conditions in the east and notheast areas. This weekend brings no Camden, no Coors, no Truist but it does have Chase/Yankee/Great American/TD Ballpark home games all weekend long.
WEATHER
So every game tonight should play without postponement issues, but here are notable windy spots
- Tigers at Yankees – 20 MPH out
- Cubs at Reds – 15-20 MPH out
- Marlins at Nationals – 20 MPH cross wind left to right
- Mets at Phillies – 20 MPH cross wind left to right
- Braves at Jays – 8-10 MPH wind out
The only cooler spot is in Chicago between the Indians and White Sox.
There are three aces going tonight, Gerrit Cole, Shane Bieber and Brady Si… haha, okay, I had to get a Singer reference in there. The third is Yu Darvish and my build for playing these guys is you MUST have one of them on DraftKings and you can play two of them together if you go the SP1-SP1+4 Man Value Stack route which has been something that has lots of success for me in the past. That said, I don’t see it being a smash spot for all three and so I’d balance your lineup with an SP1 and then one of the mid range SP2’s.
Yu Darvish
Darvish has enough starts now in PETCO and given that he brought his catcher with him there’s zero reason for him to not be comfortable in a nice pitchers park environment against a lineup that has a 25% strikeout rate vs RHP this year and remains without one of their better bats (Yaz). Of the big three (Darvish-Cole-Bieber) today Darvish to me has the least risk factoring in the conditions (wind/weather), opponent, ballpark and his recent form is more than good enough as well.
Gerrit Cole
We are really splitting hairs between Cole and Bieber tonight. Both should project to get over 8.5 strikeouts and both are facing manageable offenses. The White Sox have a lot of random hitting going on right now and should struggle to string together long innings but ultimately they have too many weapons to like Bieber over Cole — even though Cole is pitching with 20+ mph winds blowing out. The Tigers may run into 2 HR tonight but when they aren’t it will result in a high strikeout game for Cole tonight.
Nathan Eovaldi
This is a great bounce back spot for Eovaldi who got roughed up by the Mariners last weekend and was just missing on his overall command. Texas has been sneaky at times but they’re still Texas and this remains one of the better pitching parks with the roof closed as I expect it to be. Tonight brings a lot of chalk on a chap SP2 in Andrew Heaney on DraftKings and I would consider a pivot off him as Heaney can struggle just like the rest of em and Eovaldi to me gets way overlooked in a good spot.
Other SP2’s to consider
- Brady Singer … He is about $1500 cheaper than he should be. On a shorter slate he would be at the top of the list if we had less options.
- Marcus Stroman … Should pitch well vs the Phillies and will get the run support that deGrom never gets.
- Andrew Heaney … Worth the fade in my mind given his projected ownership, but I’ll reference the good leverage off him later on. Could be 40-50% owned tonight believe it or not.
- John Means
The feedback on the Data Dashboard/Model has been really good so far and we should continue to trust it as a good starting point. That said, one thing that we just can’t avoid sometimes is that the data and the model is going to end up liking all the chalky plays on big slates like tonight. That’s the case when we have a couple specific factors involved which will outweigh a lot of the personal variables that I have added in which you won’t find on any other site. Data itself can be sliced and diced many different ways to tell a story. I could tell you how one player hits in a split vs a pitcher or I could tell you how they specifically hit the velocity that they will see or the ball movement. Or we could break down their recent history, or maybe how they do in a given ballpark. What about bullpens? What about birthdays? What about Houston Astros Height narratives!?@?!# Okay, maybe we’re going a little far there, but the data can be sliced many different ways and my model is one that I do tweak from time to time to make sure it’s balancing volume/history of data in a season to keep it consistent.
I say all of this because today is a day we cannot get around certain factors if we are just plugging in metrics into a model. The Yankees are extreme favorites in a tiny park with the wind blowing out against a pitcher who is a young prospect that hasn’t shown enough to indicate he has it figured out. They’re heavy favorites also because Cole is pitching and so naturally they’ll be popular. The humidity in Dunedin is extremely good and we have two troublesome pitchers there as well with two teams that have some good power on them. Another obvious spot! So take the Yankees-Braves-Blue Jays and put them into one bucket tonight. Then look at the rest of the slate and look through the model for guys who “might not belong” here to help gauge what the data is really saying — versus scenarios where the entire team is getting a lift because of a few extreme factors.
ATLANTA BRAVES – Travis d’Arnaud, Ronald Acuna
It will be extremely humid down in Dunedin tonight and the wind is blowing out against Robbie Ray. The walk and home run upside is too damn good to ignore with Atlanta who should also get to utilize the DH spot which could go to Pablo Sandoval (ugh) but if it is Travis d’Arnaud then lock him in for a multi-HR game. TDA is batting better of late and has always been someone that hits LHP extremely well. With Ray’s walks normally being an issue he should see men on base as well to offer lots of upside.
CHICAGO CUBS – Kris Bryant, Javy Baez, Matt Duffy, Anthony Rizzo
The Cubs go into a park they absolutely love to mash in with good hitting conditions and Wilde Fricken Miley on the bump. The Cincinnati side is more popular because once again people rely upon implied run totals to tell them what to do. We won’t make that mistake as the Cubs are the better play tonight.
NEW YORK METS – Nimmo, Conforto, Lindor, Dom Smith.
I loooove the Mets tonight but hate that they’re dealing with an unpredictable wind situation today. We have to be in love with Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto and Francisco Lindor against Chase Anderson and if the wind looks like it will be blowing OUT more than across then this has huge multi-HR upside today.
LA DODGERS – Seager, Turner, Muncy, Taylor
Update here — No Mookie Betts, I’ll leave what I wrote below but downgrade to the upside on LA stack tonight.
So Fastball Freddy is back on the mound for the Dodgers and will try to establish his secondary pitches against them like he did in his previous starts this year. He has made three starts against the Cubs and one against the Pirates, which aren’t exactly the best comparisons in my book for an LA Dodger lineup which has been a little sluggish lately but is poised to break out with a massive bang when they do break out. Peralta has gotten good early success with an increased SLIDER usage so far this season — especially to RH batters. But again, who the hell has he actually faced with it? I will take a 2% owned Dodgers team on the road in a doubles park against someone with 1.5 pitches.
CATCHER
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Salvador Perez
- Daulton Varsho
FIRST BASE
Weakest position on the slate.
- Anthony Rizzo
- Pete Alonso
- Asdrubal Cabrera
SECOND BASE
- Jose Altuve … After Houston got shut down by 6’0 Kikuchi they get a nice big Ryan Yarbrough. Houston is one of the better road teams believe it or not.
- Mike Moustakas
- Jeff McNeil
THIRD BASE
- Eugenio Suarez
- Anthony Rendon
- Kris Bryant
SHORTSTOP
This is a fantastic position tonight IMO.
- Trevor Story – Abreu/Altuve/Bryant/Story … If you wanted a four headed infield monster of one off homers that’s the list but of the four, Story is the highest confidence of them all for me.
- Corey Seager
- Bo Bichette
- Francisco Lindor
OUTFIELD – Tier 1
- George Springer
- Michael Conforto
- Mike Trout
- Garrett Hampson
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Marcell Ozuna
- Jesse Winker
- Teoscar Hernandez – Returns tonight!
OUTFIELD – Value
- Yonathan Daza
- Avisail Garcia
- Jake Marisnick
- Manny Margot
- Kyle Lewis / Mitch Haniger
- Billy McKinney
The Dongers Club — Basically all my favorite one offs tonight
- Kris Bryant – 3B – Cubs – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros
- Trevor Story – SS – Rockies
- Michael Conforto – OF – Mets
- Travis d’Arnaud – C – Braves
- George Springer – OF – Blue Jays
- Mitch Haniger – OF – Mariners
- Jose Abreu – 1B – White Sox
- BONUS ……………………….. Garrett Hampson – OF – Rockies
BETS
- Mariners ML
- Rockies / Diamondbacks OVER 8.5
- Dodgers / Brewers OVER 8.5
- Rockies ML
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
I would not play more than one of these teams together in a lineup.
- Yankees
- Blue Jays
- Braves
Team with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP
- LA Dodgers
- Chicago Cubs … I wouldn’t consider them a good offense but they have put together some big games over the last two weeks and go into a tiny park with the wind blowing out.
Best Leverage Spots
- Mariners – They’re not a horrible offense like perceived and they’re really cheap on DK. So much so that you can load up on Mariners as leverage against Heaney while locking in 2 of the Ace’s. This wins the Q on DK tonight.
- Bleach
- Drew Smyly