This is what a smaller slate is going to be in 2021 for the NHL calendar and I love it. The two and three game Wednesday slates have really been lessened and instead there are five games tonight and that brings into the size of a slate which is the best to ride game theory on.
Edmonton vs Toronto will be the chalk / most logical high scoring game of the slate. You have two paths to this game flopping and others paying off. First is that the game itself could struggle and an Edmonton Power Play which was elite last year continues to struggle (I kind of doubt it, but hey, stranger things have happened). Second is the game produces but it’s just a variance fest where goals come from guys who in a full 82 game season would end with 7-10 goals total and thus are not likely in your DFS lineups.
These factors exist on EVERY slate, but when its a five gamer and folks jump to one game, the upside is greatly increased for fading it blindly even it if makes total sense.
Wednesday, January 20th
STACKS
MONTREAL CANADIENS
Philip Danault – Brendan Gallagher – Tomas Tatar – Shea Weber
The Vancouver Canucks have yet to show any signs of having defensive chemistry thus far, as they’re allowing a ton of shots on goal against thus far and given the slate of teams they’ll be playing in the North division this year it’s unlikely to change. So this means Braden Holtby who used to never face a ton of shots in Washington is now on radar as an upside goalie given the amount of shots he might face, but do you want to roll out Holtby tonight against the Canadiens? I don’t think so. The man I feel I have to have is Brendan Gallagher, so it’s either roll him as a one off with the MTL 2nd line to get Suzuki-Anderson combination or just go full MTL1. I like the full MTL1 price tonight and it allows you to get their top defenseman Shea Weber who is off to a really nice start with points in each of the Habs first three games.
Correlate with: Vancouver as well, this is a good game stack spot. Petterson – Boesser – Hughes
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
Auston Matthews – Mitchell Marner – Morgan Rielly
Matthews and the Leafs have owned the McDavid/Matthews rivalry with their only loss being the last time these two teams met in a 5-4 game. Toronto has been able to control the series and with the Oilers power play struggling out of the gate I would trust Toronto’s side more.
POSITIONAL ONE OFFS
CENTERS
Elias Pettersson (VAN) … Love a game stack here.
Leon Draisaitl (EDM) … Price is dropping, so he makes for the favorable one off from Edmonton but you don’t need me to tell you that McDavid on the road is also favorable. But $1100 savings is hard to pass up
Ryan O’Reilly (STL) … In a 9 goal game the other night ROR was my favorite center and he came away with just one assist. Same match-up, same logic today.
WINGS
Brendan Gallagher (MTL) … High volume shooter against a team giving up shots left and right, up and down, sideways and … well, you get the gist.
Kevin Fiala (MIN)
Brock Boesser (VAN)
Mitchell Marner (TOR)
DEFENSE
Morgan Rielly (TOR) … DMen continue to be favorable plays versus Edmonton. Cant imagine the Leafs having a 4 goal game without him contributing.
Shea Weber (MTL)
Erik Karlsson (SJ)
Darnell Nurse (EDM)
Hampus Lindholm / Kevin Shattenkirk / Cam Fowler (ANA) … There’s value always in getting a D vs Minnesota player and these three are all sub 4k with Shattenkirk on PP1 and Fowler on PP2. Unfortunately the Ducks power play is not something that we should be rushing to play on most nights, but after a 1-0 battle between these two the other day and with the Wild basically living in LA/Anaheim for the past week I expect the Ducks to have 3+ goals tonight and these are your value considerations.
GOALIES
Darcy Keumper (ARI)
In a season full of back to back scheduling narratives I would have never guessed that rolling out a road goalie in Vegas on a B2B with a day off is where I go. But here we are and for $7000 this is a contrarian/leverage/go to sleep before he starts kind of play. Arizona is still decent enough on defense to avoid a major blowout and with some high priced forwards/defenseman standing out on this smaller slate I’ll take the cheaper goalie.
Also consider: Jordan Binnington / Martin Jones … Binnington just too expensive for limited SOG against usually.
SLAP … SHOTS!
LINE LOCK OF THE NIGHT: Danault – Gallagher – Tatar (Montreal)
ONE OFF STUD: Mitch Marner (Leafs)
CONTRARIAN ONE OFF: Kevin Fiala (Wild)
ONE OFF VALUE WINGER: Jakob Silvferberg (ANA)
TOP DEFENSE-MAN: Morgan Rielly (Leafs)
GPP FADE TEAM OF THE NIGHT: Vegas Golden Knights
FAVORITE BETS:
Canadiens / Canucks OVER 6.5 — Game stack it
Go Opposite Parlay: Wild/Ducks O5.5, Coyotes/Knights O5.5, Blues/Sharks U6 (+622)