Six quarterbacks are listed on Baltimore’s depth chart this week, which is less a depth chart than a waiting room. Lamar Jackson is on injured reserve and Tyler Huntley is hurt, so the start goes to Joe Fagnano, an undrafted rookie who completed 10 of 21 passes for 91 yards in his debut and practiced this week in a heavy brace on his right ankle. Baltimore has scored 10, 13 and 10 in its last three games. Jacksonville scored 73 in its last two.
The betting line has caught up with all of it. The Ravens opened as 4.5-point favorites and are now 10-point underdogs, and the total has dropped from 49.5 to 39.5. Our 20,000 simulations of this game have Jacksonville winning 81.8% of the time, and the shape matters more than the score: the Jaguars run 26 times and throw 22. They don’t need Trevor Lawrence to win this game. They need him to hit a few deep balls against a secondary that gives them up. The DFS crowd is still drafting off the Ravens’ logo and last week’s box scores, and that’s where our numbers part with it:
- The Ravens’ defense at 51% ownership: a $3,000 price tag isn’t a reason to play a unit facing an offense that just scored 42.
- Jacksonville’s receivers: Jakobi Meyers is owned like the No. 1 after his snaps fell to 54%. Parker Washington, the actual No. 1, is at 27.8%.
- Lawrence’s passing yards: the line is 231.5. We project 206, and the sim has 179 on 22 attempts.
- Brian Thomas Jr.’s touchdown price: the one number on the board where our model sees more than the books do.
Model vs. market: anytime touchdowns
We converted projected rushing and receiving touchdowns into a probability of scoring at least once and set it against the best price at the major US books. Our projections usually run below the books on touchdowns, so the column to read is the ratio: how much of the market’s price our model supports.
| Player | Best price | Market | Model | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker WashingtonJAX · WR | +150 | 40.0% | 20.4% | 0.51 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX · RB | -105 | 51.2% | 39.0% | 0.76 |
| Derrick HenryBAL · RB | +130 | 43.5% | 37.1% | 0.85 |
| Jakobi MeyersJAX · WR | +350 | 22.2% | 20.5% | 0.92 |
| Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB | +410 | 19.6% | 18.8% | 0.96 |
| Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · WR | +600 | 14.3% | 16.1% | 1.13 |
Washington is the most expensive receiver touchdown on the board, and our model supports barely half of it. That says nothing bad about him as a player. He wins with length: 59 catches on 98 targets from Lawrence with a 12.6-yard average depth of target, so his game is yards in chunks, and a +150 touchdown price asks for more than that. Henry at 0.85 is fair for a back projected for 17 carries on a team implied for 14.8 points. Thomas is the only price we can bet: his snaps jumped 31 points to 52% last week, his targets come 15.3 yards downfield, and +600 implies less than our 16.1%.
Model vs. market: ownership
The field has found the obvious plays. Lawrence and Chris Rodriguez Jr. are both projected at 62%. Lawrence is fine there: at 17.8 points he is the top projection in the game. Rodriguez is chalk for a reason. Jacksonville’s lead back missed practice all week with a foot and ankle problem and is a game-time call, which leaves Rodriguez with 12 projected carries at $3,400. That’s a starter’s role at a backup’s salary, and we aren’t going to fade it to be different.
The mistakes are elsewhere. Meyers is at 44.4% after his snaps fell 21 points to 54% and his targets dropped by seven. Washington, who leads Lawrence’s target history by nine looks and has the highest simulated ceiling of any Jaguar (48.9 DK points), is at 27.8%. That’s 17 points of ownership the wrong way between a team’s top two receivers.
The DST note is the loudest. The Ravens’ defense is 51.1% owned at $3,000 with a 5.4-point projection, against an offense averaging 0.239 EPA per play. Jacksonville’s defense is 15.7% owned at $5,800, projects for 8.1 points with a 14.9 ceiling, and gets a rookie on one good ankle. The Jaguars have 14 sacks, 45 quarterback hits and nine interceptions this season, and Fagnano turned it over twice in his debut. The field is paying for the cheaper defense and ignoring the one that’s actually favored here.
Team context worth carrying
- Baltimore’s pass defense: 0.218 EPA allowed per dropback, and positive in all three deep areas (deep middle 1.078, deep right 0.958, deep left 0.734 EPA per attempt). Lawrence’s best area this season is deep left, at 0.912 on 20 throws. Low volume and big plays is how Jacksonville’s passing game wins this one.
- Jacksonville’s run defense: −0.160 EPA allowed per rush. The sim still gives Henry 18 carries for 80 yards, because Baltimore has nothing else to lean on. His case is volume and a touchdown, not efficiency.
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Captain and build
Washington is the captain. On a ceiling-weighted basis Lawrence rates higher, but he’s at 62% in the flex, so a Lawrence captain is the field’s lineup with a 1.5x tax on it. Washington’s sim distribution (mean 11.8, 90th percentile 20.8, ceiling 48.9) is the widest on the team, his targets go where Baltimore bleeds, and he’s under 28% owned. The game we want is four catches for 110 and a score, not eight catches for 70. Lawrence goes in the flex for the stack, and Derrick Henry covers the Baltimore side: he’s the one Raven whose role doesn’t depend on who’s throwing.
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The bets
- Trevor Lawrence Under 231.5 passing yards, +100 (BetMGM; 234.5 at -111 at DraftKings). We project 206 yards and the sim has 179 on 22 attempts. A ten-point road favorite facing a rookie quarterback hands the ball off in the second half, and this line is priced for a normal game.
- Parker Washington Under 4.5 receptions, -120 (BetMGM; -130 at FanDuel, -131 at DraftKings). We project 3.8 catches and the sim has 3.2. He’s caught 60% of his targets on a deep aDOT. The under is consistent with him as captain: he pays off on yards per catch, not on catch count.
- Brian Thomas Jr. anytime TD, +600 (Fanatics; +575 at BetMGM). Model 16.1%, market 14.3%, and a snap share that’s going up. Keep it small.
The captain anytime touchdown isn’t here because the price isn’t fair: Washington at +150 is the worst ratio on the board. We’re also passing on Baltimore’s moneyline. +425 at BetMGM implies 19.0%, and the sim wins it 18.2% of the time. Our sim has the Over 39.5 landing 53.4% of the time, which at -110 is essentially breakeven, so there’s no total either.
Method: model touchdown probability = 1 − e−λ, where λ is projected rushing plus receiving touchdowns. All numbers are from the DailyAmbush showdown ratings, projections, 20,000-run game simulation and Bureau board as of Thursday morning. Lines move, so check your book before the 8:15 ET kickoff.