The Dongers Club – 9/14

Monday baseball with two weeks left in the regular season. Eight games on the MAIN tonight, and of course the Dodgers get tucked into a 6:40 PM start in Cincinnati so we can’t touch them. Great American Ballpark, the Dodgers, a Monday night… and it’s on the Turbo. Thanks. What we do get is the Padres at Coors Field in 86 degrees against a Rockies bullpen that has a 10.71 ERA over the last week. Not a typo. Ten. Seventy-one. So you already know where tonight starts, the only question is how much of your salary you want to spend getting there.   WEATHER Yankees at Twins: Damp, 59 degrees and a little rain in the area. They’ll get it in. Roofs in Toronto and Arizona. Everything else clear.   REID DETMERS (DK: $8800) Last time out it was 6 innings, 0 runs, 9 strikeouts. Tonight it’s a Mariners lineup that sits third on the slate in strikeout rate, and Detmers is carrying a 28% K rate and a 1.04 WHIP into it. The model has him nearly 20 points clear of the next arm on the slate. I’m not getting cute here — you play him and win the slate with the bats. QUINN MATHEWS (DK: $7700) The Giants are dead last against four-seamers and dead last against sliders. Those two pitches are 64% of what Mathews throws. I’m not saying he’s a stud, I’m saying San Francisco can’t hit what he’s throwing and they’re tied for the lowest team total on the slate. WILL WARREN (DK: $7300) Went 6 innings, 1 run, 8 strikeouts last time. The Twins actually handle fastballs pretty well, so he’s more of a salary saver than a ceiling play, but at this price in a damp ballpark I’ll take it.   OTHER THOUGHTS Troy Melton: In a dome and righties have a .235 wOBA against him. If you want to be weird for SP2, this is the weird. Kade Anderson:  The reverse splits should come back to the norm at some point.  Worth a longshot flyer.   PADRES Sugano at Coors. Almost 2 homers per nine, hitters are crushing his cutter and his four-seamer, and when he’s gone you get the worst bullpen on the slate by a country mile. San Diego’s team total is nearly two runs higher than anyone else tonight. Tatis and Merrill are both slugging around .600 over their…...