The Dongers Club – August 14th

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WEATHER Phillies @ Nationals (6:45 PM): Possible rain delays – monitor closer to game time Braves @ Mets (7:10 PM): Rain moving in around first pitch – likely late start but will play clean Diamondbacks @ Rockies (8:40 PM): Clear skies in Denver – perfect Coors conditions   Jesus Luzardo (PHI) – $8,400 DK / $10,100 FD The clear ace play tonight. Luzardo has elite strikeout upside against a weak Nationals lineup that strikes out 26-27% vs both sides. Washington’s offense has been anemic (.228 avg vs RHP, 7 HRs in 10 days). His splits show dominance vs lefties (.200 avg, 40% K rate, 0.0% HR rate). The Phillies are massive -215 favorites, giving him great win equity. Only concern is his 9.6% walk rate vs righties, but the upside far outweighs the risk. Edward Cabrera (MIA) – $8,700 DK / $8,900 FD Solid GPP pivot with strikeout upside (25%+ K rates vs both sides). Cleveland’s offense has been inconsistent (.262 avg vs RHP but only 8 HRs in 10 days). His recent form is encouraging (36.2% CSW vs NYY, 27.70 DK points). The Guardians can be exploited by quality arms, and Cabrera’s changeup/curveball combo should play well. Kodai Senga (NYM) – $8,900 DK / $8,200 FD Bounce-back spot for the talented righty. Atlanta’s offense has power but also strikes out (20-29% K rates). His splitter can be devastating when working, and the Mets are solid home favorites. Risk/reward play given his recent struggles, but the talent is undeniable.   ROCKIES Coors Field + terrible lefty = offensive explosion. Rodriguez has been brutal (5 ER in his last Coors start, .590 SLG vs lefties). The 12.0 O/U screams offense. Primary: Ezequiel Tovar ($3,700), Hunter Goodman ($5,000), Jordan Beck ($4,200) Leverage: Brenton Doyle ($3,500), Kyle Farmer ($3,400) PHILLIES Elite offense against a vulnerable pitcher. Lord allows .374 SLG to lefties, and Philly’s left-handed bats should feast. Primary: Kyle Schwarber ($6,000), Bryce Harper ($5,400), Brandon Marsh ($3,000) Leverage: Max Kepler ($3,400), Bryson Stott ($3,700) METS Elder has been getting crushed (.520 SLG vs RHB, 4.5% HR rate). Mets have multiple elite bats ready to capitalize. Francisco Lindor ($5,500), Pete Alonso ($5,500), Juan Soto ($5,800) Brandon Nimmo ($4,700), Jeff McNeil ($2,900)     CATCHER Hunter Goodman Agustin Ramirez Riley Adams   FIRST BASE Pete Alonso Matt Olson Kyle Manzardo   SECOND BASE Ketel Marte Francisco Lindor Gleyber Torres   THIRD BASE Jose Ramirez…...

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