The slightly contrarian path for the Semi-Finals would be to load up on the Penn State/Notre Dame game. Not only does it have the lower total and the lesser respected offenses, it also is the early game of the two and I think most who tinker long enough are going to want to leave themselves the ability to adjust lineups after the first night to “catch-up” on the field as best they can.
One thing which popped into my head last night when thinking about these games is that this is the first time teams are ever playing a THIRD game after Christmas, let alone after the end of their regular/conference season. Does it matter? I don’t know. But history has always shown that in the 4 team playoff we have a team who comes out flat this late in the season. Just some food for thought.
I also dont really pay much attention to the data in regards to these games. Everyone’s got a good pass defense, everyone knows what the other team is capable of doing. It’s going to come down to the usual touchdown variance and we should put more weight on ownership fading rather than projection fading.
Riley Leonard is checking in as the highest owned QB here. I think he is going to have to carry it a TON for Notre Dame as usual but overall there’s nothing that tell us we have to play him over everyone else.
I don’t see this being a 2 QB slate, but it’s also thin in how much we’ll spend at the RB/WR spots, so rolling with two in the same game isn’t a terrible idea.
One last nugget … The four teams remaining were among the top 5 overall in Red Zone defense on the season. If there’s gonna be high volume of scoring, it’s likely to be through the air and big plays — which is another viable reason to consider not using Leonard as your #1.
- Drew Allar (Penn State – $7000)
- Riley Leonard (Notre Dame – $8000)
Jeremiyah Love (ND) is going to play, and I feel he is fine to use but DK is begging us to use 3 RB on this slate. I have Texas/Ohio State being a sneaky ground and pound spot where you could legit use 4 RB in the game. I’m likely gonna ride and die with the Penn State air game and Allar doing a little rushing damage himself over the Singleton/Allen combination for the 2 game slate, but if you go a third RB it has to be Allen IMO at his lower ownership.
- TreyVeon Henderson (Ohio State – $5800)
- Quentrevion Wisner (Texas – $5900)
- Kaytron Allen (Penn State – $5300)
- Quinshon Judkins (Ohio State – $5600)
- Tyler Warren (Penn State – $7000) … Just play him
- Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State – $7400) … Just play him
- Harrison Wallace (Penn State – $4000) … If at first you do not succeed, try again!
VALUE
- Carnell Tate (Ohio State – $3900)
- Beaux Collins (Notre Dame – $3400)
- Gunnar Helm (Texas – $4000)
POSITION DEPTH RANKED (For S-FLEX/FLEX Purposes)
RB
QB
WR
TOP BETS
- Penn State -1.5
- ND/Penn State OVER 44.5
- Texas +5.5
- Ohio State/Texas UNDER 53.5
GAME SCORES:
- Penn State 30, Notre Dame 20
- Texas 23, Ohio State 21