WEATHER
All games good to go tonight, but with a chance for delay in the Jays/Chi-Sox game.
It’s Aces Tuesday and this doesn’t even include some good guys going in the Turbo slate set of games.
The pricing tonight on DraftKings, unfortunately is going to lead to some high ownership on a few arms, or so it should. Combined with a game in Coors and some higher $ DK teams that are my favorites I don’t see going into the Wheeler, Peralta, Ragans bin to pay up tonight when you have plenty of other options who are “mid range” but should be up higher…
KEVIN GAUSMAN (DK: $8500, FD: $10,200)
This is the top one and the most important decision you have to make in your lineup(s) tonight. With Gausman, you’ll likely just be taking the 40%+ chalk and probably in my mind getting a 25+ DK FPTS output as he should grind through the White Sox lineup without many bumps and finish with 8-10 strikeouts, upside into the 30’s and maybe even a fuck you game where he drops a 40. Fade him and pray he gets blown up early like it’s a Sunday afternoon, which it is not. So, uh, yeah, we’re not fading it.
MAX FRIED (DK: $8800, FD: $9800)
Next up, the lefty who I said should be 10k about 3 weeks ago and hasn’t even made it above 9k. Sure, the Nationals are pesky, but a crafty lefty is going to limit them today and find his way through 7 innings without much of a sweat.
JESUS LUZARDO (DK: $8000, FD: $9600)
Next on the DK chalk train is Luzardo, who returns to the west coast where his career began but now to face the Padres which are really bad against lefties for the better part of the last month. This one could come in lower just because people do not trust the Marlins, and I do not trust him vs Machado to be honest. Yet, the rest of the lineup we should.
Other Pitching Thoughts
- For cheap darts, Matt Waldron is tempting at $6200 vs Miami in PETCO. Really everyone else you want is close enough to Fried/Luzardo/Gausman, so just go them.
Some Updates:
Giants have swapped out Spencer Howard for Erik Miller. Smart move fellas. This removes all love for the Phillies tonight for me.
PHILLIES
Just opening up the games this morning to double check my notes before I went to bed and …. wait, who is pitching for the Giants?
Spencer Howard? No. No way. No effin way! Damn I wish this was a day game, but just about every Phillie from Schwarber and Stott to Luzinski and Morandini are in play tonight. Load em up, send em out Phils…
- Kyle Schwarber – OF
- Bryson Stott – 2B
- Bryce Harper – OF
- Edmundo Sosa – SS
BRAVES
I told myself yesterday I would write them off, and now today there’s 3 guys I just cannot get past.
- Michael Harris II – OF
- Matt Olson – 1B
- Sean Murphy – C
GUARDIANS
Unlike the Yankees the Guardians get production everywhere tonight against Ryan Feltner? Hardly know her! Come on down Kyle Manzardo, let’s finally have a break out game, and you too Will Brennan, you can serve us well. Finding good production from the Guardians 5-9 guys is not that far of a stretch today.
- Kyle Manzardo – 1B
- Will Brennan – OF
- Andres Gimenez – 2B
YANKEES
It feels like the Yankees never get good DFS production from their cheap guys without the Soto-Judge-Stanton trio going yard and tonight of those three Giancarlo back in L.A. and also having a good RvR spot vs Griffin Canning is who I am able to ride among those three. No reason to not go all in on the paying up Yankees if you go Yankees.
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Juan Soto
- Aaron Judge
- Gleyber Torres
CATCHER
- Sean Murphy … Now that Murphy has a game under his belt off the IL we will probably get used to using him quite a bit while he’s priced equivalent to guys he shouldn’t be.
- Bo Naylor
- Mitch Garver
FIRST BASE
- Matt Olson … Lefties carried a .222 ISO in 2023 with 14 off Irvin and this year have carried that over to even better metrics and more contact as Irvin is walking fewer, which just means he’s throwing more balls that are hittable and they’re getting drilled. Olson and/or Michael Harris are what feel like obvious picks here tonight.
- Christian Walker
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Kyle Manzardo
SECOND BASE
- Bryson. Stott.
- Brendan Rodgers
- Andres Gimenez
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa
THIRD BASE
- Luis Rengifo
- Manny Machado
- Jose Ramirez
SHORTSTOP
One of these days I’m gonna write up three random fuckers here who you’ve never considered at Shortstop for DFS just to test everyone…
Today isn’t that day.
- Willy Adames
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Corey Seager
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Daulton Varsho
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Michael Harris II
- Kyle Schwarber
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Yordan Alvarez
- Juan Soto
- Will Brennan
OUTFIELD – Value
- Nelson Velasquez
- George Springer
- Jesus Sanchez & Bryan De La Cruz
Alright, the new format is officially going back to the minors to work on some things…
- Michael Harris II – OF – Braves – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Daulton Varsho – OF – Blue Jays
- Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Yankees
- Willy Adames – SS – Brewers
- Bryson Stott – 2B – Phillies
- Matt Olson – 1B – Braves
- Luis Rengifo – 3B – Angels
- Salvador Perez – C – Royals
- BONUS … Kyle Schwarber – OF – Phillies
TOP BETS
- Guardians/Rockies OVER 10.5
- Phillies -1.5
- Jesus Luzardo over 4.5 strikeouts
- Max Fried over 5.5 strikeouts
- Kevin Gausman over 6.5 strikeouts