A great Friday night is followed up with a HEAVY afternoon slate today. 11 games on DraftKings from 1PM-4PM start times and the FanDuel folks have given us two slates, a 1PM and a 4PM but they haven’t yet posted that 7PM slate, so no assurances that it loads on the Dashboard.
DOUBLE HEADERS
Yankees & Guardians are playing two today. Neither is on a normal DFS slate.
Twins & Tigers are also playing two today. Game 1 (Ryan vs Maeda) is on the Main Slate.
WEATHER
Tons and tons of wind. I hate wind. It’s the worst thing mother nature can give us. It’s basically her saying fuck your golf ball, I am going to send it over there and screw your putting ability I am … oh wait, sorry, going on a golf rant watching so much wind at the Masters yesterday.
- MIN @ DET: The wind does give us one of my favorite weather narratives. Wind 14+ MPH to Left Center in Comerica Park = Overs, and that’s what we have here. Unfortunately it’s a very early afternoon Saturday start, but Kenta Maeda against his former Twins team? Fuck yes, lets go.
- KC @ NYM: Cross winds, heavy, yucky.
- COL @ TOR: Expect roof closed.
- TEX @ HOU: Big attention on the roof here. It’s 80+ and 13 MPH winds out to left which in the dome might not seem like much but it can be if they have that roof open.
- MIL @ BAL: Heavy winds here out to RF
- PIT @ PHI: Just like Baltimore
- WSH @ OAK: Rain in Oakland, game should play
- LAA @ BOS: 16+ MPH winds out to RF.
- ATL @ MIA: Heeeey, no wind impacts here.
- SF @ TB: Hot Dogs, Free Samples and all the bulk toilet paper you could want.
Top Recommendations
MACKENZIE GORE (DK: $8800, FD: $8000) … My kid returns out to the west coast and is responsible for taming the … white hot Oakland athletics? They’re winning games because Dogs win in April, but they are not winning games because of an elite offense or anything like that. This is a perfect match-up for Gore as Oakland should produce a ton of whiffs on his curveball. Look for a 7+ strikeout performance.
CHRIS SALE (DK: $9400, FD: $9700) … I am not a Braves fan, but I am a Sale fan and even I am holding my breath every time I see him take the mound this season just waiting for that injury to flare up. Expect Jake Burger to rope a double off him early in the game, but once Sale gets going he’ll start racking up the strikeouts throughout this lineup.
LOGAN WEBB (DK: $8800, FD: $8000) … Hey look, it’s Logan Webb once again finding himself in another day game start. I don’t know how this guy does it, but he must go to the manager before the year and indicate where he should fall in the rotation for nothing but day games. This one is in a dome, and it’s versus a very quiet Tampa Bay lineup which has reduced their strikeouts finally but is still only hitting .205 over their last 106 PA vs RHP and I’m thinking that a 3-4-5-6 of Palacios, Paredes, Ramirez and Mead isn’t exactly going to do wonders for business down at the Tampa/St. Pete regional COSTCO.
Other Pitching Notes
This classifies as a large slate, so it’s easier to find value on hitting than it is to nail a value pitcher. Either way, we don’t have a pitcher who is less than $6100 today on DK and that pitcher is DL Hall returning to Camden to face the organization who sent him away for Corbin Burnes. There’s no value pitchers I like today and would encourage you to stay away from such a dangerous idea.
Nick Lodolo makes his 2024 debut and draws the White Sox. A chalky SP as the highest priced arm making his season debut? I don’t care if it is the White Sox, fade.
I do like Alec Marsh, I don’t hate Garrett Crochet and Sean Manaea will do just alright.
ORIOLES
Anthony Santander, Colton Cowser, Ryan Mountcastle, Jackson Holliday
14 hits over 9 innings for Hall against much lesser offenses than the Orioles. Add in some potential wind out to the short part in this ballpark and we’re definitely expecting Santander, Hays, Mountcastle to do damage today. Jackson Holliday hits his first HR and with 2B eligibility he is a great play.
BLUE JAYS
George Springer, Daulton Varsho, Bo Bichette
Death, Taxes, Blue Jays Saturday afternoon home wins. The damage should really come off the Colorado bullpen, but if we’re shopping for hits against Hudson it’s Springer and Varsho I would focus on the most.
- Other Spots I Like: Pirates (Suwinski/Cruz), Phillies (Turner/Bohm), Astros (Bregman/Alvarez/Diaz), Brewers (Yelich/Hoskins/Adames), Twins (Buxton/Julien)
- Fades: Braves, Red Sox, Angels, Reds
CATCHER
- Yainer Diaz
- Adley Rutschman
- J.T. Realmuto
FIRST BASE
- Ryan Mountcastle
- Rhys Hoskins
- Joey Gallo
SECOND BASE
- Jackson Holliday
- Jose Altuve
- Edouard Julien
THIRD BASE
- Alec Bohm
- Justin Turner
- Alex Bregman
SHORTSTOP
- Oneil Cruz
- Bo Bichette
- Trea Turner
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Christian Yelich
- George Springer
- Anthony Santander
- Jack Suwinski
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Byron Buxton
- Yordan Alvarez
- Oneil Cruz – SS – Pirates – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Anthony Santander – OF – Orioles
- Christian Yelich – OF – Brewers
- George Springer – OF – Blue Jays
- Jackson Holliday – 2B – Orioles
- Alex Bregman – 3B – Astros
- Yainer Diaz – C – Astros
- Rhys Hoskins – 1B – Brewers
- BONUS …………………. Nolan Jones – OF – Rockies
TOP BETS
Twins/Tigers OVER 8.5
Royals/Mets UNDER 8.5
Blue Jays + Orioles ML Parlay
Pirates/Phillies OVER 9
Nationals/Athletics UNDER 8
SF Giants ML